Thursday, September 06, 2018

Stocks Mostly Lower into Final Hour on Trade War Fears, Earnings Jitters, Profit-Taking, Energy/Tech Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.6 +5.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.10 -.61%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.98 unch.
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 29.64 unch.
  • ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 +3.81%
  • Total Put/Call 1.06 +8.16%
  • NYSE Arms 1.31 +96.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.57 -1.19%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 421.0 +.50%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 77.94 -1.68%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 270.25 +14.75 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.70 -2.04%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 225.68 -4.26%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 151.40 +.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 19.0 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 20.0 +2.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.25 +2.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.08 -.03%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.13% unch.
  • Yield Curve 24.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 68.26 USD/Metric Tonne +.40%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.5 +1.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index .1 -5.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.50 -.2 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.09 -1.0 basis point
  • 95.3% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 8th meeting, 98.4% chance at Dec. 19th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -17 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +59 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +30 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial/medical sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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