Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:          

• Trump's Allies Come Out in Force, Rejecting Narrative of Turmoil.

• Italy Debt Load Reduction Is Key to Calming Markets, Tria Says.

• Swinging at Putin With Sanctions, U.S. May Whack Emerging World.

• Iraq Pumping Oil at Record Levels, Unaffected by Protests.

• Asia Stocks Mixed as Trade in Focus; Dollar Steady. Asian stocks were off to a muted start Monday as investors digested President Donald Trump’s threat to escalate the trade war with China. The dollar held gains and Treasuries ticked lower as a rise in U.S. wages bolstered the prospects for further interest-rate hikes. Benchmarks were little changed in Japan, Australia and South Korea while futures indicated losses for equities in China and Hong Kong. On Friday, the Nasdaq 100 Index capped its worst week since March with Apple Inc. slumping after warning on the impact of tariffs on its products. The 10-year Treasury yield held gains from the jobs report while emerging market equities ticked lower. Japan’s Topix index was little changed as of 9:14 a.m. in Tokyo. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.3 percent. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 0.5 percent. FTSE China A50 Index futures sank 0.4 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 Index rose less than 0.1 percent.

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

• China Outlook Darkens, Japan Wage Gains, Italy Dilemma: Eco Day.

• Bitcoin Tracker One and Ether Tracker One Suspended by U.S. SEC.

• CBS’s Moonves Toppled by Harassment Allegations, Redstone Clash.  

• Florence Becomes a Hurricane, Threatening East Coast.

Wall Street Journal:

• Cheap Custom-Made Versions of Pricey Drugs Spur Backlash.

• North Korea Cuts ICBMs Out of Military Parade.

• Oil Market Turns Turbulent Heading Into Fall Season. 

• Wages Are Rising. Will Inflation Follow?

• Congress Expected to Avoid Shutdown.

• Oil Market Turns Turbulent Heading Into Fall Season.

Fox News:

• Pence slams Obama's political comeback, rips 'un-American' Op-Ed. 

• TAYA KYLE: Nike(NKE), tell me again what Kaepernick actually gave up by kneeling.

CNBC:

• A market bull gives 3 winning stock picks through next year.

• Morgan Stanley says investors should ignore the midterms and watch profits and the Fed instead. 

• Wall Street bull sees stocks hitting year-end target early, but watch out for inflation.

Zero Hedge:          

• Tesla(TSLA) "Aggressively" Trying to Offload Model 3 Inventory As Demand Fades.  

• NYT Answers 9 Questions About Anonymous Op-Ed After Trump Demands DOJ Investigation.  

• "This Is A Coup, Okay": Bannon Weighs In On Anonymous Anti-Trump Op-Ed.

• Is The US Job Market Is Finally Overheating? The Answer In 40 Charts.

• New LAPD Chief Cancels Kamala Harris' "Unprecedented" $50,000 Traveling Armed Bodyguards.

• "We Will Both Prove Everyone Wrong" - Trump Thanks Kim For "Good Faith" Message.

• China's Pig Market On Lockdown As African Swine Fever Spreads.

• Germany: Anti-Immigration Party Surges In Popularity.

• Criminalizing Childhood: School Safety Measures Aren't Making Students Any Safer.

• Global Trade Hit By Rare Decline As "Supply Chains Seize Up".

Business Insider:

• Here's how much sugar is actually in some of the biggest drinks in the US as Americans revolt against beverage giants pushing sugar-packed products.

• There are 2 key issues in the way of bringing Canada back into NAFTA.

• GOLDMAN SACHS: Chinese tech giants are dominating North America in VC funding for the first time, and it could be the start of an unprecedented boom.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.0% to -.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 81.25 -.25 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 12.5 -.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.32 -.05%.

• FTSE 100 futures +.19%

• S&P 500 futures +.16%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.18%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
Before the Open:

• (HOV)/-.04

After the Close:

• (CASY)/1.65

Economic Releases

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for July is estimated to rise to $14.1B versus $10.211B in June.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China PPI report, Morgan Stanley Healthcare Conference, CSFB Steel/Mining Conference and the (T) business update could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.