Tuesday, September 04, 2018

Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Trade War Fears, Emerging Market Currency/Debt Angst, Oil Decline, Commodity/Gaming Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.4 +4.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.30 +.01%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.90 +2.3%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 20.59 +1.30%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 110.0 +22.2%
  • Total Put/Call .79 -23.3%
  • NYSE Arms 1.23 +4.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.51 +.78%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 413.0 -.62%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 81.12 -3.44%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 266.0 -5.0 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 11.68 +7.55%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 244.35 +3.62%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 150.96 +.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 19.25 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 20.75 -2.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 64.94 -.70%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.11% -2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 24.5 2.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 66.30 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.90 +11.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 5.30 +3.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -8.0 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.10 unch.
  • 96.4% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 8th meeting, 98.8% chance at Dec. 19th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +10 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -65 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +2 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my retail sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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