Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• The US and Iran are expected to formally sign a memorandum of understanding on June 19 in Switzerland, paving the way for 60 days of talks aimed at ending their war for good and putting strict new limits on Iran’s nuclear program.
• The US and Iran have committed to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. But returning normal traffic in the strait presents significant challenges. Here's what to know. 
• The US has emptied the immigration detention camp in the Florida Everglades known as Alligator Alcatraz after the state spent hundreds of millions of dollars on the high-profile jail to support Trump’s mass deportation agenda.
• HSBC says it will use Alphabet’s Google Cloud to roll out AI across its global operations, expecting each project to generate more than $100 million either in revenue or through efficiency gains.
• AI & Jobs! AI is pulling the job mkt in two directions, says latest PwC study: Cos that use AI to enhance human skills are reaping rewards, cos using AI only to cut costs are falling behind.  
• Serious changes are likely coming to the Fed with Trump pick Kevin Warsh as its chairman. 
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets. 

• @ZeroHedge

• China Revives Heavy Naval Firepower With New 155mm Gun That "Could Support An Attack On Taiwan". 
• US Holds Off Blacklisting China's DeepSeek And Other Firms: Reuters. The US has held ​off adding China’s AI startup DeepSeek, memory chipmaker CXMT and more than 100 other companies flagged as national security risks to a trade blacklist, Reuters reportedas the Trump administration tries to avoid escalating tensions with Beijing. Recall that Anthropic claimed this year it identified a campaign by DeepSeek and two other Chinese AI ​labs to illicitly extract capabilities from its Claude AI platform to improve their own models, and OpenAI warned lawmakers that DeepSeek also was targeting its models. 
• This is one of the most disturbing things I've ever read, but it perfectly encapsulates modern Ireland. As men moved to neutralise an Algerian migrant who was stabbing kids outside a creche in Dublin, women on scene locked hands to protect him. 
• New Oregon Initiative Would Criminalize Hunting, Fishing And Farming. 
• Majority Of Arrested ICE Protesters At Newark's Delaney Hall Came From Outside New Jersey.
• Radical Woke Mount Sinai Hospital Exposed: DEI, Child Sex Changes & Epstein Ties Prioritized Over Patients.
• Iranian Tankers Cross US Naval Blockade After Trump Deal Allows Iran To Restart Oil Sales.
• Exclusive: A $300 billion private fund designed to trigger investment into Iran is outlined in the US-Iran framework agreement and more than half that sum has already been committed, a source with direct knowledge of the deal told Reuters.
• Supreme Court Rejects Challenge To Trump's First-Term Tariff On China.
• Americans now spend 2x more time chatting with AI companions than using dating apps. And the gap is widening.
• Brazil's Supreme Court convicted Bolsonaro's son Eduardo to 4 years in prison for lobbying for father in US.
• MLB Scolds Players Who Wrote Bible Verses On Pride Night Uniforms.
• Semiconductor Stocks Tumble After Microsoft Balks At $3B Oracle Cloud Deal.
• Gavin Newsom And The DOJ Probe Opened Under Biden: Behested Payments, Family Nonprofits, & Questions Of Influence. 
• Big-Tech, Bond Yields, & Black Gold Dump Ahead Of Warsh's Big Day.                 

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: Markets cheer Iran calm as Trump eyes his next deal. 
• Wednesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Databricks sales growth tops 80%, but margin are shrinking from swarm of AI agents.
• Stock futures are little changed as Wall Street gears up for Federal Reserve rate decision: Live updates.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.0 -1.0 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 39.0 -.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 100.30 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%. 
• Crude Oil 76.01/bbl. -.04% 
• Gold 4,352.80 USD/t oz. -.04%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.53 +.07%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.21 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 122.1 +.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.43% -1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.72% -7.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.3 -.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.21%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.19%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.40%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.