Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.2 -2.7%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.8 +.2%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .25 -2.0 basis points
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.15 +7.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.7 -.6%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 149.3 -2.4%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 48.6 -6.2%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 -.3
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.3 +1.4
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 55.4 -3.3
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -43.2 +1.0
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 44.7 +1.4
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) +27.9% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 364.11 +.21: Growth Rate +23.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.1 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.48% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +66.6% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 908.23 +.76: Growth Rate +75.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.3 -.2
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .90 -6.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 39.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 179.3 +.3%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 48.30 euros/megawatt-hour -3.4%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 13.5% -.1 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.3% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.45% -10.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.47 -10.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 88.5% (+1.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 69.1%(+8.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,920 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -92 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +346 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/biotech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM) hedges and emerging market shorts
- Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
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