Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• The US military said it had launched strikes against “multiple” targets in Iran for the second day in a row after Trump accused the country of dragging out talks on an interim peace deal. 
• South Korea and the EU said North Korea will “never” be recognized as a nuclear-weapon state, reaffirming their commitment to denuclearization days after China and North Korea pledged closer ties at a summit.    
• Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government has introduced legislation that would ban youth under the age of 16 from using social media platforms operated by firms such as Meta and X unless the companies meet a set of "safety" standards. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day.  

• @ZeroHedge

• Trump Says 'We'll Bomb The Sh*t Out Of Them' Tomorrow Too If No Deal, After Dozens Of Tomahawks Hit Iran.               
• *OpenAI Price Cuts Could Threaten Margins, Profits Ahead of Potential IPO, Sources Say -- WSJ. 
• *OpenAI Expects Anthropic to Reduce Prices After Some Users Balk at AI Costs, Sources Say -- WSJ. 
• MSFT Restricts Internal Use Of Claude Fable Over Data-Retention Concerns; BMO Calls Anthropic A Leading Pure-Play AI Lab.
• *IRAN SAYS TARGETS US FIFTH FLEET IN BAHRAIN: PRESS TV.
• JPMorgan: AI Bills Are Out Of Control.
• Kospi VIX: 88.
• ... make that 7 days. Token price index slide back to mid-January levels, fading much of the agentic frenzy of the past 3 months.
• From FOMO To Oh No! Koreans Face Massive Forced Liquidations As AI Bubble Bursts.
• Trump's claim Iranian officials spoke with him directly and asked the bombing to stop is completely false, no contact has been stablished with Trump; Iran responds to aggression with military action: Tasnim.
• Iran Revolutionary Guard Navy Commander: Any ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will be dealt with firmly.
• *TRUMP TELLS FOX NEWS IRAN BOMBING WILL STOP SHORTLY, LEAVES OPTION FOR MORE STRIKES.
• Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is declared closed to all types of vessels: ISNA.
• Goldman Flags Tightening Power Grid In Texas Amid Rapid Data Center Growth.
• The scary part isn't volatility. It's how little it takes to create it. Markets increasingly resemble a giant short-gamma ecosystem where relatively small flows can produce outsized price moves.
• Explosions reported in Iranian towns of Sirik, Manab, Bandar Abbas and Bushehr.
• RFK Jr. Responds To "Explosion" in Tick-Borne, WEF-Touted Alpha-Gal Syndrome.
• Rioters clash with police in Belfast as unrest continues amid outrage over the attempted beheading of a man.
• *IRAN SAYS IT WILL HIT NEW US TARGETS, TASNIM REPORTS.       
• Solar Tops Coal In US Power Mix For The First Month Ever.
• Stop Destroying Civilization!.
• Soft CPI, Soaring SOXS, & Cease-Ceasefire Trigger More Market Turmoil; Bullion Battered.   

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: Trump expresses 'love' for inflation print and anger at Iran. 
• Thursday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Oil jumps as U.S. fresh strikes on Iran raise worries of extended disruption to energy flows. 
• Stock futures slip after U.S. launches additional strikes against Iran, oil rises: Live updates.
• Oracle beats on earnings and revenue, adds $20 billion to planned capital raise.
• Inflation accelerated in May as rising energy costs contributed to pain for consumers, though underlying pressures were less intense. The consumer price index, a broad gauge of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy, rose at a seasonally adjusted 0.5% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 4.2%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Both numbers were in line with the Dow Jones consensus though the monthly number was 0.1 percentage point below the April reading. (graph) 

• @TheTranscript

• $ORCL CFO: Oracle expects to raise ~$40B in FY27 debt & equity to fund AI infrastructure buildout "To support our capital investments program, we expect to raise around $40B in debt & equity in our FY 27, that includes our already announced $20B at-the-market equity issuance. We don't anticipate raising additional debt funding in calendar year 2026"
• $ORCL CFO: CapEx acceleration is driven by deployment timing rather than inflation in hardware component costs. 
• $ORCL Oracle CFO Hilary Maxson: ""In terms of Q4, it was a record quarter, driven by strengths in both our cloud infrastructure and cloud apps business. Revenue was $19.2 billion, up 21% in US dollars. Cloud infrastructure revenue grew 93%, reflecting strong demand for both AI workloads and our database services, and cloud apps was up double-digit at plus 10%."  
• $ORCL: "Remaining Performance Obligations, or RPO, ended the quarter at $638B, up 363% YoY and up $85B sequentially from the end of Q3....The large increases in Oracle’s RPO and revenue are driven by the growing demand for cloud infrastructure for AI training and inferencing." 
• Oracle double beat: Commentary: "Total quarterly revenues increased 21% to $19.2 billion, reflecting broad-based demand for Oracle's industry-leading cloud technology and applications suites" $ORCL: -2% AH.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.75 +.75 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 40.25 unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 101.35 USD/Metric Tonne -.11%. 
• Crude Oil 91.64/bbl. +1.8% 
• Gold 4,094.10 USD/t oz. -1.0%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.49 +.1%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.03 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 118.7 -.2%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.55% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.89% +2.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.1 +3.0%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.98%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.01%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.01%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.