Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.3 +1.4%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.9 +.9%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .27 unch.
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.22 unch.
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.0 +.9%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 153.2 +1.4%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 51.8 -4.0%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.0 -.1
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 87.9 -.6
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 58.7 -3.5
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -44.2 +1.8
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 43.3 -1.0
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) +27.9% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 363.80 +.16: Growth Rate +23.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.1 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.48% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +66.6% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 907.47 +.69: Growth Rate +75.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.5 unch.
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .96 -11.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 41.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.0 basis point
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 178.7 -1.6%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 50.60 euros/megawatt-hour +3.8%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 13.6% +1.4 percentage points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.3% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.54% +3.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.59 -5.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 88.0% (+1.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 63.7%(+1.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -620 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -266 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating -85 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my energy/consumer discretionary sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
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