Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Mideast War Resoluation Hopes, AI Infrastructure Build Out Optimism, Positive Earnings Outlook Revisions, Tech/Defense Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.9 +.3%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 70.0 -.2% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .25 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.19 -3.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.4 -.2%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 140.5 -.2%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 54.3 -1.7% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .5 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 90.3 +1.4

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 59.5 +2.1

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -17.9 +1.3

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 32.40 -3.7
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(11 of 500 reporting) +188.8% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 371.51 +.73:  Growth Rate +26.3% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.2 +.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.60% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +1,226.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 894.31 +.60: Growth Rate +72.5% +.2 percentage point, P/E 18.9 +.1 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.09 +13.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 28.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.25 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 171. +.9%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 43.57 euros/megawatt-hour +2.2%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 16.4% +.7 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.5% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.42% +4.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.43 -3.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for September 29th FOMC meeting: 50.0% (+1.7 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th meeting: 46.7%(+.7 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,385 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -143 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +43 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +190 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long