Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.9 +.01%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.1 +.5%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .27 -1.0 basis point
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.22 +3.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.5 +.2%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 150.9 -.6%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 54.0 -1.6%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.1 -.1
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.5 -.3
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 62.2 -.3
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -46.0 +1.2
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 44.3 +4.1
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(497 of 500 reporting) +27.9% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 363.64 +.59: Growth Rate +23.6% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.1 -.4
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.48% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +66.6% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 906.78 +8.17: Growth Rate +74.9% +1.6 percentage points, P/E 18.5 -.8
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.07 +13.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 40.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.0 basis point
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 181.6 -.8%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 49.3 euros/megawatt-hour -1.1%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 12.2% -.4 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.3% +.3 percentage point
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.53% -3.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.62 -5.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 88.0% (+5.0 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 60.1%(+2.8 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -710 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -300 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +109 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Lower: On losses in my biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
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