Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• Trump's latest threat to seize Kharg Island, followed by an abrupt reversal, reflects his dilemma: How to end an unpopular war against a stubborn enemy in a volatile region of the world. 
• Investors across Asia have been largely shut out of the world’s largest-ever IPO, forcing them to find creative ways to make bets on SpaceX’s $75 billion global spectacle.
• Billionaires are leaving California for Nevada, angry at attempts to tax them. Some Golden State voters are also fed up.
• A small number of firms are set to net tens of billions of dollars in returns from the SpaceX IPO. 
• Lawmakers and tech firms are suggesting new ways to ensure the public gets a piece of the AI boom. 
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day.

• @ZeroHedge

• BREAKING: Massive fire erupts from a medical supply warehouse that can be seen for miles in Tracy, California. The fire is at the Medline warehouse, one of the largest medical supply distributors, which ships products to hospitals and healthcare facilities across the country. Multiple agencies and firefighters are working to get the blazing building under control, as investigators try to find the cause of the fire.
• Fed Up With Food Delivery App Fees & Tips? Barclays Has Terrific News.
• Middle Schoolers' Reading & Math Scores Remain Below Pre-Pandemic Levels, US Results Show. 
• *KOREA’S KOSPI EXTENDS GAIN TO 8% AS CHIP STOCKS SURGE. 
• This is correct. The @SECGov just sold out the retail investor so they could move forward with their tokenized Field of Dreams. 
• "It Was Like Two Bucks": Homeless Residents Say They Were Paid To Vote In Los Angeles Mayoral Race. 
• *TRUMP: ENDED WAR WITH IRAN TODAY.
• *TRUMP: TODAY WE SETTLED UP WITH IRAN. *TRUMP ON IRAN: PRETTY MUCH COMPLETED. *TRUMP ON IRAN: WE GOT EVERYTHING WE WANTED.
• Cato Vs Heritage: Should The U.S. Defend Taiwan From Chinese Invasion?
• Hunter Biden says he'd run in 2028 with Gavin Newsom, but only as VP.
• Trump Nominates US Attorney Jay Clayton As Director Of National Intelligence.
• Token prices down 2.8%, lower 8 days in a row.
• Polls Turn Against Netanyahu As Trump Says PM 'May Quit Politics'.
• The intrigue: Netanyahu did not have advanced notice and was caught by surprise when Trump released his initial statement about the deal, according to a source with knowledge.
• Karen Bass' Brother Joins Class-Action Lawsuit Against Karen Bass over LA Wildfires.
• New CFTC Prediction Market Proposal Would Ban War And Terrorism Bets While Allowing Sports Markets.
• Even 'Trust The Election' Pundits Are Suspicious.
• *TRUMP: I UNDERSTAND THAT SUPREME LEADER HAS APPROVED DEAL. *TRUMP: LIFTING BLOCKADE IS PART OF IRAN DEAL.
• TACO Thursday Trumps Hot-flation & ECB Hike, Sending Stocks & Bonds Soaring Ahead Of SPCX Launch.          

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: Markets score big as Iran war nears final whistle and SpaceX takes the field. 
• Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Stock futures are little changed as Wall Street gears up for SpaceX’s historic IPO: Live updates.
• What energy insiders in DC are saying about oil prices and a possible Iran deal.
• President Trump: 'Will probably have a signing for Iran deal, maybe in Europe'.
• Ex-Andreessen Horowitz partner slams his old firm, other VCs for 'political infiltration' around AI.    

• @TheTranscript

• RH CEO: "Nearly 40 years ago, standing at the Brandenburg Gate, a former American president looked out at a divided world and issued a defiant, historic decree: 'Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall.' Today, we look at the luxury home industry and ask the same."
  $RH: +0.4% AH.
• Adobe CEO: "Adobe delivered record revenue of $6.62 billion in Q2 reflecting strong AI-driven demand across our customer groups and we are raising our full-year fiscal 2026 revenue and non-GAAP EPS targets on the strength of that performance".
  $ADBE: -6% AH. 

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +1.5% to +2.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.75 -2.0 basis points. 
• China Sovereign CDS 39.5 -.75 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 101.60 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%. 
• Crude Oil 86.76/bbl. -1.1% 
• Gold 4,212.20 USD/t oz. +2.4%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.50 +.08%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.11 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 120.9 +.7%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.47% +1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.82% -7.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.5 +.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.6%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.11%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.17%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.