Friday, January 31, 2020

Stocks Falling Substantially into Afternoon on Coronavirus Fears, Global Growth Concerns, Earnings Outlooks, Commodity/Retail Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.0 +22.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.52 -.11%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.79 +1.34%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.0 +7.5%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 73.0 -3
  • Total Put/Call 1.09 +28.2%
  • NYSE Arms 1.62 +74.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.93 +4.75%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 627.0 +2.0%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.18 +.64%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 137.0 +2.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 58.19 +.81%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 197.21 +2.33%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 169.91 +.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 6.5 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 21.75 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.25 -1.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.18 -.31%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.55% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve .18 +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 80.33 USD/Metric Tonne -2.17%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.60 -.6 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 21.10 -22.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.8 +7.5 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.63 -1.0 basis point
  • 40.7% chance of Fed April 29th meeting, 59.8% chance of cut at June 10th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -495 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -1,101 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -61 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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