Thursday, January 09, 2020

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Optimism, Diminished Mideast Tensions, Technical Buying, Energy/Tech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.9 -4.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.30 +.38%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.6 -2.1%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 38.2 -10.0%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 113.0 +2
  • Total Put/Call .63 -16.0%
  • NYSE Arms 1.22 -9.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 44.39 -2.18%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 524.0 +2.58%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 50.56 -3.81%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 155.75 +6.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 54.51 -2.22%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 178.89 -.58%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 168.59 +.16%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 6.5 unch.
  • TED Spread 35.0 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 +.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.59 -.02%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.53% unch.
  • Yield Curve .28 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 91.83 USD/Metric Tonne -.91%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 1.7 +1.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 42.40 -1.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -8.4 -.9 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.76 unch.
  • 4.7% chance of Fed rate cut at March 18th meeting, 12.2% chance of cut at April 29th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +36 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +28 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech/industrial/medical/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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