Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:        

• China to Hit 2019 Economic Targets as Trade Deal Lifts Outlook.

• U.S. and China Sign Phase One of Trade Deal.

• China’s State TV Gives Trump Live Airtime for Trade Deal Signing. 

• Stocks Mixed in Asia After U.S.-China Trade-Deal. Stocks in Asia were mixed Thursday in wake of the signing of the U.S.-China trade deal, expectations for which had driven global equities to record highs and propelled a recovery in the yuan. Shares in Japan and South Korea were largely flat, while Australian equities were modestly higher. Hong Kong and Shanghai saw a muted open. U.S. futures were little changed after the S&P 500 Index Wednesday notched a fresh record high. Treasuries held gains, with 10-year yields below 1.8%, and West Texas Intermediate hovered around $58 a barrel. Futures on the S&P 500 Index were little changed as of 10:34 a.m. in Tokyo. The underlying gauge rose 0.2% on Wednesday. Japan’s Topix index dipped 0.2%. South Korea’s Kospi index was little changed. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index advanced 0.6%. Shanghai Composite index was flat. Hang Seng index dipped 0.2%.

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

• Smith & Wesson Maker Replaces CEO After Non-Financial Misconduct.  

• TeslaTSLA) Is Once Again the Most Shorted American Stock.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S., China Sign Agreement Easing Trade Tensions.

• The Best and Worst U.S. Airlines of 2019.

• Can Trump Earn Black Support?

• Pelosi’s Impeachment Offenses.

Fox News:

• Pelosi 'played into' McConnell's hands, 'destroyed' her impeachment case, Turley says.

MarketWatch.com: 

• The Dow just closed above 29,000 for first time in a brisk 40 trading days.

• The ‘best job in America’ for 2020 pays $105,000 a year — and you’ve probably never even heard of it.  

• Millennials prefer White Claw over wine — and it’s shaking up the alcohol industry.

CNBC:

• Here’s what China agreed to buy from the US in the phase one trade deal.

• Facebook(FB) stock is about to ride a big upside move, trader predicts.

• The real warning in Target’s holiday sales: Toys are in trouble.

• Shares of XPO Logistics(XPO) soar 15% after announcing possible spin-offs.

• Twitter(TWTR) CEO Jack Dorsey: ‘I eat seven meals every week, just dinner’.

Zero Hedge:

• Epstein Trafficked Girls As Recently As 2018 - Some As Young As 11, According To Lawsuit By Virgin Islands AG. 

• Northam Declares State Of Emergency In Virginia Because "Armed Militia Groups Plan To Storm The Capitol".

• The Cannabis Industry's Dirty Energy Secret.

• House Delivers Articles Of Impeachment To Senate, 'Trial' To Start Tuesday.

• #CNNIsTrash Trends As Pushback Grows Against Oligarchic Election Meddling.

• 18 Signs That Social Decay In America Is Worse Than It's Ever Been Before.

• "Sell The News"? Stocks, Dollar, & Bond Yields Slide After Signing Trade Deal.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 52.50 -.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 30.25  -1.0 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  66.50 +.03%.

• FTSE 100 futures -.01%.

• S&P 500 futures +.11%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.16%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (BK)/1.00

• (SCHW)/.62

• (MS)/1.02

• (PPG)/1.34

• (TSM)/4.12

After the Close:

• (CSX)/.98

• (PRGS)/.75

Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST

• The Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for Jan. is estimated to rise to 3.6 versus .3 in Dec.

• The Import Price Index MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in Nov.

• The Export Price Index MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in Nov.

• Retail Sales Advance MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in Nov.

• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.1% gain in Nov.

• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for Dec. is estimated to rise +4% versus unch. in Nov.

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 218K versus 214K the prior week.

• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1750K versus 1803K prior.
  

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for Nov. is estimated to fall -.2% versus a +.2% gain in Oct.

• The NAHB Housing Market Index for Jan. is estimated to fall to 74 versus 76 in Dec.
  

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Nov.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, BoE Survey, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (WING) investor day and the (CMCSA) streaming service investor meeting could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.