Monday, January 13, 2020

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Diminished China Trade Tensions, Earnings Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Road & Rail Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.6 +.24%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.11 +.52%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.40 unch.
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 37.8 -8.1%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 80.0 -13
  • Total Put/Call .73 -15.1%
  • NYSE Arms 1.25 -3.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 44.32 +.37%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 534.0 +.19%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 51.02 +1.31%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 153.5 +1.5 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 53.43 -1.06%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 180.95 +.16%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 168.75 +.07%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 6.0 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 30.75 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.58 +.02%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.54% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve .25 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 93.39 USD/Metric Tonne +.27%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 2.0 +1.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 41.80 -1.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.20 +.8 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.77+1.0 basis point
  • .7% chance of Fed rate cut at March 18th meeting, 10.5% chance of cut at April 29th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +95 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +86 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +11 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/retail/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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