Wednesday, March 27, 2019

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Oil Decline, Technical Selling, Metals&Mining/Gaming Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.4 +5.2%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.18 -.25%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.2 +7.2%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 41.24 +3.5%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 83.0 -21.0%
  • Total Put/Call 1.03 +17.1%
  • NYSE Arms 1.82 +203.3%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 68.42 +.15%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 528.0 -.11%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 83.41 -2.25%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 253.5 +5.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.02 +.32%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 187.0 +6.03%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 160.86 +.08%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 10.75 +2.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 17.0 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.5 -3.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.39 -.45%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.42% -2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 16.5 +.75 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 84.20 USD/Metric Tonne +.73%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -40.30 unch.
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -54.40 -.6 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -17.80 +1.0 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.84 -2.0 basis points
  • 27.9% chance of Fed rate cut at June 19th meeting, 35.3% chance of cut at July 31st meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -188 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -58 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +41 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial/retail sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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