Tuesday, March 26, 2019

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Less European Debt Angst, Oil Gain, Short-Covering, Energy/Biotech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.3 -6.1%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.51 +.18%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.61 +1.18%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 40.57 +.35%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 +87.9%
  • Total Put/Call .93 +8.14%
  • NYSE Arms .71 -31.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 68.23 -.64%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 529.0 +1.52%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 85.33 -4.45%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 248.25 -4.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.55 -1.12%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 176.45 -.19%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 160.73 +.06%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 +2.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 16.75 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.25 -2.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.71 +.08%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.44% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 15.75 -.5 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 82.22 USD/Metric Tonne +.13%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -40.30 -6.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -53.80 +.1 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -18.80 +.2 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.86 -2.0 basis points
  • 22.6% chance of Fed rate cut at June 19th meeting, 30.8% chance of cut at July 31st meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -168 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +74 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +15 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my industrial/tech/retail/medical/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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