Monday, March 04, 2019

Stocks Reversing Lower into Afternoon on China Trade Deal Concerns, Profit-Taking, Technical Selling, Defense/Healthcare Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.5 +14.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.55 -.49%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.21 -.48%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 40.40 +1.15%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 76.0 -45.71%
  • Total Put/Call .97 +8.99%
  • NYSE Arms 1.07 +5.94%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.06 +1.03%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 506.0 -.06%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 75.84 +.16%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 258.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.75 -3.44%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 170.41 +1.37%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 158.73 +.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.50 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 17.0 -3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.0 +1.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.95 -.11%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.42% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 18.25 -1.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 83.25 USD/Metric Tonne -.23%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -43.10 +.3 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -60.0 +1.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -16.5 +2.3 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.94 -2.0 basis points
  • 0.0% chance of Fed rate hike at May 1st meeting, 0.0% chance at June 19th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -287 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +6 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -34 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Lower: On losses in my biotech/medical/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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