Monday, March 18, 2019

Stocks Modestly Higher into Afternoon on Diminished Global Growth Fears, Oil Gain, Technical Buying, Financial/Energy Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.2 +2.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.15 -.02%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.98 +1.27%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 39.31 -2.4%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 76.0 +7.0%
  • Total Put/Call .82 unch.
  • NYSE Arms .82 -26.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.43 -1.05%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 511.0 -.33%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 70.90 -1.10%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 237.0 -4.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.0 -2.53%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 166.25 -.92%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 159.80 -.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 11.5 unch.
  • TED Spread 19.50 +1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.91 +.22%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.44% unch.
  • Yield Curve 14.75 -.75 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 86.46 USD/Metric Tonne +.43%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -35.90 +.3 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -31.80 +2.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -25.10 +3.4 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.96 +1.0 basis point
  • 0.0% chance of Fed rate hike at May 1st meeting, 0.0% chance at June 19th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -164 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +21 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +28 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail/tech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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