BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher into the final hour on gains in my Financial longs and Medical longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is slightly negative as the advance/decline line is about even, most sectors are falling and volume is very light. Investor anxiety is very high. Today’s overall market action is mildly bearish. The VIX is rising +4.91% and is high at 20.94. The ISE Sentiment Index is low at 94.0 and the total put/call is around average at .87. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running high most of the day, hitting 1.37 at its intraday peak, and is currently 1.12. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is rising +.42% to 62.17 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is rising +2.05% to 85.55 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is unch. at 21 basis points. The TED spread is now down 444 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th of last year. The 2-year swap spread is falling -6.28% to 27.88 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is up +1 basis point to 9 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is up +1 basis point to 2.41%, which is down -24 basis points since July 7th of last year. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .05%, which is up +1 basis point today. Oil Service, Gold, Airline, Gaming, Homebuilding, Financial, Disk Drive, Ag and Alt Energy shares are higher on the day.Gauges of investor angst are fairly high again today given just mild market weakness, which is a positive.I still suspect terrorism jitters are holding stocks back a bit ahead of tonight’s festivities.The UK sovereign debt cds is falling -2.1%, which is another positive.US scrap steel is up another 2.2% over the last five days.The Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index rose again this week to .09, which is the best level since the week of July 20th, 2007. (XLF) is trading well today.Despite terrorism and rising oil worries, airlines haven’t given back much of their recent gains and are outperforming again today, rising +.4%.On the negative side, cyclicals are relatively weak and the market mostly ignored today’s positive economic report again. Nikkei futures indicate an +174 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +2 open in Germany on Monday. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, less economic fear, technical buying, year-end window dressing, less financial sector pessimism and seasonal strength.
- Fewer Americans than anticipated filed claims for unemployment benefits last week, pointing to an improvement in the labor market that will help sustain economic growth next year. Initial jobless claims fell by 22,000 to 432,000 in the week ended Dec. 26, the lowest level since July 2008, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The number of people collecting unemployment insurance fell in the prior week to 4.98 million, and those receiving extended benefits jumped. “It’s boding well for outright job growth,” said Stephen Gallagher, chief U.S. economist at Societe Generale in New York, who forecast claims would drop to 430,000. “It seems that some of the layoffs that took place in the early part of the year were excessive.” “What we’ve seen is definite stability and just a hint toward things trying to get better,” Jeffrey Joerres, chief executive officer of Manpower Inc., said in a Bloomberg Television interview today. The world’s second-largest provider of temporary workers, is experiencing “slow but steady increases in people who are out on assignment,” he said. “It’s a little in every office, which is a good sign because it’s broad-based.” The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits, which tends to track the jobless rate, held at 3.8 percent in the week ended Dec. 19, today’s report showed. The four-week moving average of initial claims, a less volatile measure, dropped to 460,250 last week from 465,750 the prior one. Claims are down from a 26-year high of 674,000 in the week ended March 27.
- US consumers are becoming more confident, suggesting the retail sales rally in November probably accelerated this month, according to Dennis Gartman, an economist who publishes the daily Gartman Letter market report. “When December’s retail sales figures are finally released sometime next month, they shall register a strong year-on-year comparison.”
- Signal Hill analyst Mayank Tandon initiated coverage of MasterCard(MA) with a buy rating on Dec. 31, saying the second-biggest credit-card company "is positioned at the heart of the global shift from paper to plastic". Tandon expects a return to low double-digit revenue growth for MasterCard on a global consumer recovery in fiscal 2010. "Combined with continued operating margin gains, we see MasterCard growing earnings at a 20-30% pace over the next 3-5 years," the analyst wrote in a note. Tandon noted that after seeing a decline in payment volumes as consumers cut back on spending, MasterCard "is seeing early signs of life". Better payment volumes, favorable currency effects, and easier comparisons should all translate into accelerating revenue trends through fiscal 2010 and into fiscal 2011, acting as a catalyst for the shares, the analyst said. "As one of the premier companies in the payment space, with strong secular tailwinds, we believe MasterCard is a core holding name for investors", Tandon wrote. The analyst sees upside in the share price to $325 within 12-18 months.
- German carmakers plan to focus on sales in China, India and the US next year to offset an anticipated drop at home after government-funded trade-in incentives are terminated, citing Matthias Wissmann, president of the VDA industry group.
- At the peak of the financial crisis late in 2008, a common refrain from bankers and traders was that credit markets were enduring a calamity seen once in a hundred years. In 2009, it appears the returns from three credit strategies also represent a once in century event. ”The magnitude of the markets’ reaction to a crisis gets bigger each time,” says Jason Brady, portfolio manager at Thornburg Investment Management.“The frequency of so-called 100 year events seems to be increasing because the leverage has increased and news flow is very high now,“ he adds. Investors this year have been rewarded handsomely for betting on a normalization in specific parts of the credit markets in the US and Europe, which imploded last year and nearly sank the global financial system. For US financial bonds, the return since their nadir in March is 31 per cent, compared to a gain of 22 per cent for all investment-grade corporates, according to indexes calculated by Barclays Capital.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 460K versus 452K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 5100K versus 5076K prior.
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
- The NAPM-Milwaukee, Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the bond market's early close could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and commodity stocks in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.