Indices
S&P 500 1,211.37 +.88%
Dow 10,841.60 +.81%
NASDAQ 2,065.40 +.20%
Russell 2000 637.53 +1.01%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,933.02 +.88%
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 1,023.04 -.68%
S&P Barra Growth 582.70 +.98%
S&P Barra Value 624.26 +.79%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 587.54 -.09%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 776.62 +1.65%
Morgan Stanley Technology 473.35 +.87%
Transports 3,715.17 +3.08%
Utilities 356.06 -.04%
Put/Call .83 -1.19%
NYSE Arms .81 -35.20%
Volatility(VIX) 11.49 -2.38%
ISE Sentiment 145.00 +2.11%
AAII % Bulls 31.82 -12.49%
US Dollar 82.66 -.98%
CRB 300.23 +3.53%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 51.49 +6.71%
Unleaded Gasoline 125.45 +1.42%
Natural Gas 6.72 +11.73%
Heating Oil 145.41 +10.75%
Gold 436.10 +1.73%
Base Metals 126.77 -.17%
Copper 148.60 -.60%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.27% unch.
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 5.69% +1.25%
Leading Sectors
Energy +7.36%
Iron/Steel +7.35%
Homebuilders +4.00%
Lagging Sectors
Gaming -1.56%
Disk Drives -1.75%
Internet -2.25%
*% Gain or loss for the week
Friday, February 25, 2005
Mid-day Report
Indices
S&P 500 1,207.86 +.64%
Dow 10,801.63 +.49%
NASDAQ 2,057.15 +.27%
Russell 2000 632.93 +.86%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,890.47 +.64%
S&P Barra Growth 580.66 +.47%
S&P Barra Value 622.58 +.77%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 586.41 -.09%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 773.33 +.75%
Morgan Stanley Technology 470.68 +.45%
Transports 3,695.86 +.42%
Utilities 355.78 +1.93%
Put/Call .83 -11.70%
NYSE Arms .79 +2.60%
Volatility(VIX) 11.30 -2.33%
ISE Sentiment 132.00 -26.26%
US Dollar 82.72 -.23%
CRB 298.96 +.31%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 51.40 +.06%
Unleaded Gasoline 125.50 -2.24%
Natural Gas 6.68 +3.50%
Heating Oil 144.70 -1.23%
Gold 436.40 +.14%
Base Metals 126.77 -.40%
Copper 148.50 +.34%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.25% -.73%
Leading Sectors
Iron/Steel +3.15%
Energy +2.24%
Homebuilders +2.14%
Lagging Sectors
Networking -.25%
Software -.43%
Broadcasting -1.50%
Market Movers
SYNA +13.66% after saying its touch-screen technology is being used in Apple Computer’s new iPod models.
JLG +25.8% after beating 2Q estimates and raising 05 guidance.
BOOM +22.53% on continuing optimism over strong 4Q results.
MANT +12.28% after meeting 4Q estimates and raising 1Q guidance.
APC +7.55% after Business Week reported the company may be valued as high as $117/share in a takeover.
PD +6.11% on optimism over US economic growth and technical breakout.
BCSI -13.25% after meeting 3Q estimates and lowering 4Q guidance.
TKLC -9.7% after meeting 4Q estimates and lowering 1Q guidance.
WON -6.99% after missing 4Q estimates and lowering 05 outlook.
Market Internals
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Hot Spots
Option Dragon
Economic Data
- Preliminary 4Q GDP rose 3.8% versus estimates of 3.7% rise and prior expectations of a 3.1% increase.
- Preliminary 4Q GDP Price Deflator rose 2.1% versus estimates of a 2.0% increase and prior expectations of a 2.0% rise.
- Preliminary 4Q Personal Consumption rose 4.2% versus estimates of a 4.6% gain and prior expectations of a 4.6% rise.
- Existing Home Sales for January fell to 5.94M versus estimates of 6.7M and a downwardly revised 5.97M in December.
Recommendations
- Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on JNPR, MRVL, NEM, AMGN, GILD, IBM, EMC and MERQ. Reiterated Underperform on GPI and HRB. Downgraded MCDTA to Underperform.
- Smith Barney: Said crude-oil prices may fall during the second quarter because of high inventories. Said shares of INTC and CSCO may rally, fueling gains in the S&P 500. Reiterated Sell on CPN, target $3. Reiterated Buy on MRO, target $47. Reiterated Buy on INTU, target $54. Reiterated Sell on TIVO, target $3.50. Reiterated Buy on SPLS, target $37. Reiterated Buy on HD, target $48. Reiterated Buy on WTS, target $335. Reiterated Buy on ASD, target $50. Reiterated Buy on ROP, target $70. Reiterated Buy on CYH, target $39. Reiterated Buy on APCS, target $15. Reiterated Buy on JCP, target $63. Reiterated Buy on BEAS, target $11.50. Reiterated Sell on CEI, target $12.
- Prudential: Raised XOM to Overweight, target $70.
- CSFB: Raised MAS to Outperform, target $37.
Mid-day News
US stocks are modestly higher mid-day on optimism over US economic growth and lower long-term interest rates. The expansion of the liquefied natural gas tanker fleet is causing a shortage of qualified crewmembers, putting safety at risk, TradeWinds reported. Executives from Federated Department Stores, the owners of Macy’s and Bloomingdale’s, will meet May Department Stores board members to agree on a merger, the Wall Street Journal said. The US venture-capital business is seeing the emergence of firms that concentrate on particular regions or industries, rather than investing in a range of business ideas, the Wall Street Journal reported. Onyx Pharmaceuticals licenses a therapy it developed to Shanghai Sunway Biotech, a Chinese biotech company, after stopping work on the virus-aided treatment in 2003, the NY Times reported. US mutual funds are pushing for cuts in the commissions brokers charge for trading stocks, the Wall Street Journal said. Medical-device makers including Advance Neuromodulation Systems are facing greater scrutiny from regulators regarding sales and promotional tactics, the Wall Street Journal reported. The SEC will vote on new rules to open the credit ratings industry to competition, the Washington Post reported. Alcan, the world’s second-largest aluminum producer, may shut its three plants in France if costs for electricity rise further, Liberation reported. Vail Resorts is interested in buying California’s popular Mammoth Mountain Ski Area, valued by analysts at about $300 million, the Rocky Mountain News reported. The French unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to a five-year high of 10% in January and manufacturers in the country became more pessimistic, Bloomberg said. Optimism in the US over the stability of Iraq is growing, while most Americans think their troops will remain in the Middle Eastern country for at least two more years, according to a Pew Research Center Poll. Iran is seeking greater involvement from the US in talks with European countries aimed at limiting its nuclear program, Bloomberg reported. Residents of the northeastern US braced for another blast of winter, as a second storm forecast to hit the region Monday may form a nor’easter and dump snow and rain along the coast, Bloomberg said. Record coal prices will be higher than forecast for at least the next three years, buoyed by surging steel production in China, said Merrill Lynch. Credit Suisse First Boston economists raised their February job forecast as “new cycle low” jobless claims and a surprise improvement in help-wanted advertising suggest hiring is accelerating, Bloomberg reported. The US economy grew at a 3.8% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2004, faster than earlier estimated, because the trade deficit turned out to be smaller than thought and businesses spent more on equipment and software, Bloomberg reported. MCI will do its “utmost” to complete a combination with Verizon after receiving a revised bid from Qwest, MCI CEO Capellas said. American Airlines, Delta Airlines and America West raised fares as much as $20 on round-trip flights in the US and Canada, matching a fare increase by Northwest, Bloomberg said. The European Union should regulate hedge funds to protect inexperience investors, EU Financial Services Commissioner McCreevy said. US sales of previously owned homes, including condominiums and co-ops for the first time, declined .1% in January, Bloomberg reported.
S&P 500 1,207.86 +.64%
Dow 10,801.63 +.49%
NASDAQ 2,057.15 +.27%
Russell 2000 632.93 +.86%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,890.47 +.64%
S&P Barra Growth 580.66 +.47%
S&P Barra Value 622.58 +.77%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 586.41 -.09%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 773.33 +.75%
Morgan Stanley Technology 470.68 +.45%
Transports 3,695.86 +.42%
Utilities 355.78 +1.93%
Put/Call .83 -11.70%
NYSE Arms .79 +2.60%
Volatility(VIX) 11.30 -2.33%
ISE Sentiment 132.00 -26.26%
US Dollar 82.72 -.23%
CRB 298.96 +.31%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 51.40 +.06%
Unleaded Gasoline 125.50 -2.24%
Natural Gas 6.68 +3.50%
Heating Oil 144.70 -1.23%
Gold 436.40 +.14%
Base Metals 126.77 -.40%
Copper 148.50 +.34%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.25% -.73%
Leading Sectors
Iron/Steel +3.15%
Energy +2.24%
Homebuilders +2.14%
Lagging Sectors
Networking -.25%
Software -.43%
Broadcasting -1.50%
Market Movers
SYNA +13.66% after saying its touch-screen technology is being used in Apple Computer’s new iPod models.
JLG +25.8% after beating 2Q estimates and raising 05 guidance.
BOOM +22.53% on continuing optimism over strong 4Q results.
MANT +12.28% after meeting 4Q estimates and raising 1Q guidance.
APC +7.55% after Business Week reported the company may be valued as high as $117/share in a takeover.
PD +6.11% on optimism over US economic growth and technical breakout.
BCSI -13.25% after meeting 3Q estimates and lowering 4Q guidance.
TKLC -9.7% after meeting 4Q estimates and lowering 1Q guidance.
WON -6.99% after missing 4Q estimates and lowering 05 outlook.
Market Internals
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Hot Spots
Option Dragon
Economic Data
- Preliminary 4Q GDP rose 3.8% versus estimates of 3.7% rise and prior expectations of a 3.1% increase.
- Preliminary 4Q GDP Price Deflator rose 2.1% versus estimates of a 2.0% increase and prior expectations of a 2.0% rise.
- Preliminary 4Q Personal Consumption rose 4.2% versus estimates of a 4.6% gain and prior expectations of a 4.6% rise.
- Existing Home Sales for January fell to 5.94M versus estimates of 6.7M and a downwardly revised 5.97M in December.
Recommendations
- Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on JNPR, MRVL, NEM, AMGN, GILD, IBM, EMC and MERQ. Reiterated Underperform on GPI and HRB. Downgraded MCDTA to Underperform.
- Smith Barney: Said crude-oil prices may fall during the second quarter because of high inventories. Said shares of INTC and CSCO may rally, fueling gains in the S&P 500. Reiterated Sell on CPN, target $3. Reiterated Buy on MRO, target $47. Reiterated Buy on INTU, target $54. Reiterated Sell on TIVO, target $3.50. Reiterated Buy on SPLS, target $37. Reiterated Buy on HD, target $48. Reiterated Buy on WTS, target $335. Reiterated Buy on ASD, target $50. Reiterated Buy on ROP, target $70. Reiterated Buy on CYH, target $39. Reiterated Buy on APCS, target $15. Reiterated Buy on JCP, target $63. Reiterated Buy on BEAS, target $11.50. Reiterated Sell on CEI, target $12.
- Prudential: Raised XOM to Overweight, target $70.
- CSFB: Raised MAS to Outperform, target $37.
Mid-day News
US stocks are modestly higher mid-day on optimism over US economic growth and lower long-term interest rates. The expansion of the liquefied natural gas tanker fleet is causing a shortage of qualified crewmembers, putting safety at risk, TradeWinds reported. Executives from Federated Department Stores, the owners of Macy’s and Bloomingdale’s, will meet May Department Stores board members to agree on a merger, the Wall Street Journal said. The US venture-capital business is seeing the emergence of firms that concentrate on particular regions or industries, rather than investing in a range of business ideas, the Wall Street Journal reported. Onyx Pharmaceuticals licenses a therapy it developed to Shanghai Sunway Biotech, a Chinese biotech company, after stopping work on the virus-aided treatment in 2003, the NY Times reported. US mutual funds are pushing for cuts in the commissions brokers charge for trading stocks, the Wall Street Journal said. Medical-device makers including Advance Neuromodulation Systems are facing greater scrutiny from regulators regarding sales and promotional tactics, the Wall Street Journal reported. The SEC will vote on new rules to open the credit ratings industry to competition, the Washington Post reported. Alcan, the world’s second-largest aluminum producer, may shut its three plants in France if costs for electricity rise further, Liberation reported. Vail Resorts is interested in buying California’s popular Mammoth Mountain Ski Area, valued by analysts at about $300 million, the Rocky Mountain News reported. The French unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to a five-year high of 10% in January and manufacturers in the country became more pessimistic, Bloomberg said. Optimism in the US over the stability of Iraq is growing, while most Americans think their troops will remain in the Middle Eastern country for at least two more years, according to a Pew Research Center Poll. Iran is seeking greater involvement from the US in talks with European countries aimed at limiting its nuclear program, Bloomberg reported. Residents of the northeastern US braced for another blast of winter, as a second storm forecast to hit the region Monday may form a nor’easter and dump snow and rain along the coast, Bloomberg said. Record coal prices will be higher than forecast for at least the next three years, buoyed by surging steel production in China, said Merrill Lynch. Credit Suisse First Boston economists raised their February job forecast as “new cycle low” jobless claims and a surprise improvement in help-wanted advertising suggest hiring is accelerating, Bloomberg reported. The US economy grew at a 3.8% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2004, faster than earlier estimated, because the trade deficit turned out to be smaller than thought and businesses spent more on equipment and software, Bloomberg reported. MCI will do its “utmost” to complete a combination with Verizon after receiving a revised bid from Qwest, MCI CEO Capellas said. American Airlines, Delta Airlines and America West raised fares as much as $20 on round-trip flights in the US and Canada, matching a fare increase by Northwest, Bloomberg said. The European Union should regulate hedge funds to protect inexperience investors, EU Financial Services Commissioner McCreevy said. US sales of previously owned homes, including condominiums and co-ops for the first time, declined .1% in January, Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher mid-day on gains in my homebuilding, semiconductor and alternative energy longs. I added a few new longs this morning, thus bringing the Portfolio to 100% net long market exposure. One of my new longs is GE and I am using a $35 stop-loss on this position. The tone of the market is modestly positive as the advance/decline line is higher, almost ever sector is rising and volume is light. Measures of investor anxiety are mixed. Homebuilders, steel producers and energy-related stocks are once again leading the way. As well, small-caps and interest-rate sensitive sectors are outperforming and most technology-related sectors are underperforming. It is a psychological positive that long-term rates are falling today after a better-than-expected GDP report. I expect US stocks to trade mixed from current levels into the close as rising energy prices offsets optimism over US economic growth and lower long-term interest rates.
Friday Watch
Late-Night News
Asian indices are higher as exporters in the region rise on optimism over US growth. China will allow more industries to receive private investment as China becomes more market oriented, state-owned Xinhua News Agency said. Wal-Mart de Mexico SA, Latin America's largest retailer, plans to spend $737 million to open 70 stores within the next 12 months, Reuters reported. Microsoft's proposed measures to ensure it complies with the terms of last year's European Commission antitrust ruling are insufficient and will require more concessions from the world's largest software maker, the Financial Times said. Fed Governor Bernanke said inflation in the US is stable and central bankers should continue lifting the benchmark interest rate at the current pace, Bloomberg reported. Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates and Nike Chairman Phil Knight invested in a new buyout fund of as much as $2.5 billion being raised by Oak Hill Capital Partners LP, a firm started by Texas billionaire Robert Bass, Bloomberg said.
Late Recommendations
- Goldman Sachs: Said Offshore Oil Drillers are entering the sweet spot of the cycle, favorites are RIG, DO and ESV. Reiterated Outperform on KSS, IR and MSFT. Reiterated Underperform on WGR and MRO.
- Business Week: Shares of AFC Enterprises(AFCE) may reach $33 in a year, said Steven M. Cohen, chief investment officer at Kellner Dileo Cohen & Co. Microvision(MVIS), which makes optical scanners, will almost double revenue this year from last year as it sells products to companies such as Johnson & Johnson and Honda Motor.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.50% to +1.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.03%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.03%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Analyst Actions
Macro Calls
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
CCU/.37
GMRK/.13
KSE/.83
MCIP/.45
NOI/.36
PDLI/-.15
Splits
None of note.
Economic Data
- Preliminary 4Q GDP is estimated to rise 3.7% versus a 3.1% prior estimate.
- Preliminary 4Q GDP Price Deflator is estimated to rise 2.0% versus a prior estimate of 2.0%.
- Preliminary 4Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise 4.6% versus a 4.6% prior estimate.
- Existing Home Sales for January are estimated to rise to 6.7M versus 6.69M in December.
Asian indices are higher as exporters in the region rise on optimism over US growth. China will allow more industries to receive private investment as China becomes more market oriented, state-owned Xinhua News Agency said. Wal-Mart de Mexico SA, Latin America's largest retailer, plans to spend $737 million to open 70 stores within the next 12 months, Reuters reported. Microsoft's proposed measures to ensure it complies with the terms of last year's European Commission antitrust ruling are insufficient and will require more concessions from the world's largest software maker, the Financial Times said. Fed Governor Bernanke said inflation in the US is stable and central bankers should continue lifting the benchmark interest rate at the current pace, Bloomberg reported. Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates and Nike Chairman Phil Knight invested in a new buyout fund of as much as $2.5 billion being raised by Oak Hill Capital Partners LP, a firm started by Texas billionaire Robert Bass, Bloomberg said.
Late Recommendations
- Goldman Sachs: Said Offshore Oil Drillers are entering the sweet spot of the cycle, favorites are RIG, DO and ESV. Reiterated Outperform on KSS, IR and MSFT. Reiterated Underperform on WGR and MRO.
- Business Week: Shares of AFC Enterprises(AFCE) may reach $33 in a year, said Steven M. Cohen, chief investment officer at Kellner Dileo Cohen & Co. Microvision(MVIS), which makes optical scanners, will almost double revenue this year from last year as it sells products to companies such as Johnson & Johnson and Honda Motor.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.50% to +1.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.03%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.03%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Analyst Actions
Macro Calls
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
CCU/.37
GMRK/.13
KSE/.83
MCIP/.45
NOI/.36
PDLI/-.15
Splits
None of note.
Economic Data
- Preliminary 4Q GDP is estimated to rise 3.7% versus a 3.1% prior estimate.
- Preliminary 4Q GDP Price Deflator is estimated to rise 2.0% versus a prior estimate of 2.0%.
- Preliminary 4Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise 4.6% versus a 4.6% prior estimate.
- Existing Home Sales for January are estimated to rise to 6.7M versus 6.69M in December.
BOTTOM LINE: I expect US equities to open modestly higher on good earnings/economic reports and gains in Asia. However, rising long-term interest rates may temper gains. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into tomorrow.
Thursday, February 24, 2005
Thursday Close
Indices
S&P 500 1,200.20 +.79%
Dow 10,748.79 +.70%
NASDAQ 2,051.70 +1.01%
Russell 2000 627.56 +1.13%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,814.51 +.82%
S&P Barra Growth 577.95 +.96%
S&P Barra Value 617.85 +.62%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 586.95 +.75%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 767.54 +1.12%
Morgan Stanley Technology 468.55 +1.22%
Transports 3,680.25 +1.90%
Utilities 349.06 +1.07%
Put/Call .94 +9.30%
NYSE Arms .77 +2.67%
Volatility(VIX) 11.57 -6.62%
ISE Sentiment 179.00 +20.13%
US Dollar 82.90 +.27%
CRB 298.04 -.37%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 51.40 +.02%
Unleaded Gasoline 127.95 -.33%
Natural Gas 6.30 -.11%
Heating Oil 146.40 -.07%
Gold 435.00 -.16%
Base Metals 127.28 -1.03%
Copper 148.00 unch.
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.28% +.51%
Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +3.57%
Iron/Steel +3.09%
Semis +2.39%
Lagging Sectors
Insurance +.24%
Drugs +.21%
Internet -.18%
After-hours Movers
GPS +4.65% after beating 4Q estimates and boosting dividend.
HRB +6.51% after beating 3Q estimates.
NDAQ +5.91% after beating 4Q estimates.
SRNA -7.02% after meeting 4Q estimates and lowering 1Q guidance.
BCSI -6.33% after meeting 3Q estimates and lowering 4Q guidance.
MRVL +3.62% after beating 4Q estimates.
Detailed Market Summary
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
Futures Recap
NASDAQ 100 After-hours Indicator
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
Afternoon Recommendations
- Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Underperform on RAI, HMT, AG, DE and CNH. Reiterated Outperform on FS, HOT, MO, A and SYK.
- Merrill Lynch: Raised AV to Buy, target $17.50.
- Deutsche Bank: Downgraded AFR to Sell, target $12.
- UBS: Rated GENZ Buy, target $67.
- Business Week: Anadarko Petroleum(APC) may be acquired by a larger oil company, citing Oppenheimer analyst Fadel Gheit.
After-hours News
US stocks finished higher today on optimism over President Bush’s trip to Europe and short-covering in the homebuilding and steel sectors. After the close, China’s population will be overtaken by that of India “without a doubt” before 2030, five years earlier than predicted, as China’s fertility rates decline, the Financial Times reported. IBM reduced it 2004 revenue by $260 million after discovering some employees in Japan booked sales improperly, Bloomberg reported. A US government agency recommended that the Air Force hold a competition for a portion of a Boeing contract valued at as much as $4 billion to upgrade avionics on C-130 transport planes, Bloomberg said. Gap Inc., the largest US clothing chain, said fiscal fourth-quarter earnings rose 3.9% amid better-than-expected holiday sales at its Gap, Old Navy and Banana Republic stores, Bloomberg said. Qwest Communications, seeking to outbid Verizon Communications for MCI, sweetened its $8 billion cash-and-stock offer by giving MCI shareholders a hedge against falling share prices, Bloomberg reported. North Korea must return to six-nation negotiations over the communist nation’s nuclear weapons program in order to fulfill is request for direct talks with the US, South Korea’s foreign minister said. Microsoft hired the creator of the top-selling “Final Fantasy” series for Sony’s PlayStation device to develop games for the next version of Xbox, Bloomberg said. IBM may repatriate as much as $8 billion in foreign earnings, taking advantage of a US law that gives companies a year to bring back profits earned in other countries at a lower tax rate, Bloomberg reported. Japan’s consumer prices fell in January, extending more than six years of deflation and making it difficult for the central bank to end its zero-rate policy anytime soon, Bloomberg said. A federal judge in Houston ruled that OAO Yukos Oil is not entitled to remain under the protection of US bankruptcy laws while it fights the Russian government, Bloomberg said.
S&P 500 1,200.20 +.79%
Dow 10,748.79 +.70%
NASDAQ 2,051.70 +1.01%
Russell 2000 627.56 +1.13%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,814.51 +.82%
S&P Barra Growth 577.95 +.96%
S&P Barra Value 617.85 +.62%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 586.95 +.75%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 767.54 +1.12%
Morgan Stanley Technology 468.55 +1.22%
Transports 3,680.25 +1.90%
Utilities 349.06 +1.07%
Put/Call .94 +9.30%
NYSE Arms .77 +2.67%
Volatility(VIX) 11.57 -6.62%
ISE Sentiment 179.00 +20.13%
US Dollar 82.90 +.27%
CRB 298.04 -.37%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 51.40 +.02%
Unleaded Gasoline 127.95 -.33%
Natural Gas 6.30 -.11%
Heating Oil 146.40 -.07%
Gold 435.00 -.16%
Base Metals 127.28 -1.03%
Copper 148.00 unch.
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.28% +.51%
Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +3.57%
Iron/Steel +3.09%
Semis +2.39%
Lagging Sectors
Insurance +.24%
Drugs +.21%
Internet -.18%
After-hours Movers
GPS +4.65% after beating 4Q estimates and boosting dividend.
HRB +6.51% after beating 3Q estimates.
NDAQ +5.91% after beating 4Q estimates.
SRNA -7.02% after meeting 4Q estimates and lowering 1Q guidance.
BCSI -6.33% after meeting 3Q estimates and lowering 4Q guidance.
MRVL +3.62% after beating 4Q estimates.
Detailed Market Summary
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
Futures Recap
NASDAQ 100 After-hours Indicator
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
Afternoon Recommendations
- Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Underperform on RAI, HMT, AG, DE and CNH. Reiterated Outperform on FS, HOT, MO, A and SYK.
- Merrill Lynch: Raised AV to Buy, target $17.50.
- Deutsche Bank: Downgraded AFR to Sell, target $12.
- UBS: Rated GENZ Buy, target $67.
- Business Week: Anadarko Petroleum(APC) may be acquired by a larger oil company, citing Oppenheimer analyst Fadel Gheit.
After-hours News
US stocks finished higher today on optimism over President Bush’s trip to Europe and short-covering in the homebuilding and steel sectors. After the close, China’s population will be overtaken by that of India “without a doubt” before 2030, five years earlier than predicted, as China’s fertility rates decline, the Financial Times reported. IBM reduced it 2004 revenue by $260 million after discovering some employees in Japan booked sales improperly, Bloomberg reported. A US government agency recommended that the Air Force hold a competition for a portion of a Boeing contract valued at as much as $4 billion to upgrade avionics on C-130 transport planes, Bloomberg said. Gap Inc., the largest US clothing chain, said fiscal fourth-quarter earnings rose 3.9% amid better-than-expected holiday sales at its Gap, Old Navy and Banana Republic stores, Bloomberg said. Qwest Communications, seeking to outbid Verizon Communications for MCI, sweetened its $8 billion cash-and-stock offer by giving MCI shareholders a hedge against falling share prices, Bloomberg reported. North Korea must return to six-nation negotiations over the communist nation’s nuclear weapons program in order to fulfill is request for direct talks with the US, South Korea’s foreign minister said. Microsoft hired the creator of the top-selling “Final Fantasy” series for Sony’s PlayStation device to develop games for the next version of Xbox, Bloomberg said. IBM may repatriate as much as $8 billion in foreign earnings, taking advantage of a US law that gives companies a year to bring back profits earned in other countries at a lower tax rate, Bloomberg reported. Japan’s consumer prices fell in January, extending more than six years of deflation and making it difficult for the central bank to end its zero-rate policy anytime soon, Bloomberg said. A federal judge in Houston ruled that OAO Yukos Oil is not entitled to remain under the protection of US bankruptcy laws while it fights the Russian government, Bloomberg said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly lower today as losses in my computer hardware and steel shorts more than offset gains in my alternative energy and semi equipment longs. I added a few new longs in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. One of my new longs is AMAT and I am using a $16.50 stop-loss on this position. The tone of the market strengthened into the afternoon as the advance/decline line finished near its daily highs, volume rose and almost every sector gained. Technology, small-caps and cyclicals led the way and measures of investor anxiety remained mixed. As well, Homebuilding stocks outperformed substantially on positive guidance from PHM. The Housing Sector Index(HGX) may consolidate over the next few days on a modest rise in long-term interest rates, however it should see all-time highs over the coming weeks as fundamentals remain strong, valuations are reasonable and shorts cover.
Mid-day Report
Indices
S&P 500 1,192.62 +.15%
Dow 10,684.12 +.09%
NASDAQ 2,033.17 +.09%
Russell 2000 622.10 +.25%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,736.01 +.15%
S&P Barra Growth 573.54 +.19%
S&P Barra Value 614.72 +.11%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 584.42 +.31%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 760.98 +.25%
Morgan Stanley Technology 463.28 +.08%
Transports 3,647.19 +.98%
Utilities 347.39 +.58%
Put/Call 1.10 +27.91%
NYSE Arms 1.08 +44.0%
Volatility(VIX) 11.94 -3.63%
ISE Sentiment 184.00 +23.49%
US Dollar 82.82 +.17%
CRB 298.68 -.16%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 51.55 +.84%
Unleaded Gasoline 129.00 -1.63%
Natural Gas 6.45 +2.20%
Heating Oil 146.50 -1.22%
Gold 435.50 -.14%
Base Metals 127.28 -1.03%
Copper 147.80 -1.14%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.27% +.32%
Leading Sectors
Iron/Steel +2.47%
Homebuilders +1.98%
Semis +1.28%
Lagging Sectors
Gaming -.31%
Drugs -.41%
Internet -.78%
Market Movers
YHOO -5.0% on RBC Capital downgrade to Sector Perform.
GOOG -4.7% on RBC Capital downgrade to Sector Perform.
ANIK +35.29% after beating 4Q estimates substantially.
JOYG +17.66% after substantially beating 1Q estimates and raising 05 forecast.
PRST +11.97% on strong 4Q results.
YELL +5.2% after saying it successfully launched its next-day service with a 98% on-time performance record.
MATK +4.83% after saying it will replace Banknorth Group(BNK) in the S&P MidCap 400 after the close of trading on March 1.
FWHT -21.48% after missing 1Q revenue estimates and lowering 05 outlook.
ASKJ -7.82% on YHOO, GOOG and FWHT news.
Market Internals
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Hot Spots
Option Dragon
Economic Data
- Durable Goods Orders for January fell .9% versus estimates of unch. and an upwardly revised 1.4% rise in December.
- Durables Ex Transportation for January rose .8% versus estimates of a .3% increase and an upwardly revised 2.8% gain in December.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week rose to 312K versus estimates of 309K and 303K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims fell to 2650K versus estimates of 2693K and 2712K prior.
- Help Wanted Index for January rose to 41 versus estimates of 38 and a reading of 38 in December.
Recommendations
- Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on HD, MO, NEM, YUM, MSFT, DELL, GILD, BSX, JTX, ECA, CEN and JTX. Reiterated Underperform on INFA.
- Smith Barney: Reiterated Buy on PLUG, target $13. Reiterated Buy on ROP, target $70. Reiterated Buy on WTS, target $35. Reiterated Sell on JBX, target $34. Reiterated Sell on CIEN, target $2.40. Reiterated Buy on ESV, target $48. Reiterated Buy on LOW, target $70. Reiterated Buy on EEFT, target $35. Reiterated Buy on EFD, target $27. Reiterated Buy on BLS, target $25.41.
- UBS: Raised KRB to Buy, target $30.
- JP Morgan: Raised PLD to Overweight. Downgraded RPM to Underweight. Raised MDG to Overweight.
- Bear Stearns: Raised NTAP to Outperform.
- Legg Mason: Raised ANT to Buy, target $46.
- Oppenheimer: Rated RHB Buy, target $35.
- CIBC: Raised LAMR to Sector Outperform, target $50.
- Merrill Lynch: Rated BVN Buy, target $28. Raised MWV to Buy, target $36.
- Raymond James: Raised WCN to Strong Buy.
Mid-day News
US stocks are modestly higher mid-day on gains in transportation and homebuilding stocks. IBM is starting to provide shorter more limited technology service contracts because they are more profitable and favored by customers, the Wall Street Journal reported. Honeywell International, Philips Electronics, Motorola are among more than 100 companies that have agreed to make devices using ZigBee wireless technology, the Wall Street Journal reported. A NYC-based developer dropped plans to include a Wal-Mart Stores outlet in its planned Queens shopping center, ending the world’s largest retailer’s plans to open its first NYC store, the NY Times reported. GM, AT&T, Alcoa and other US companies may hold software vendors such as Microsoft responsible for flaws in their systems, the Wall Street Journal reported. Utah’s system of partial health insurance may become a model for changing the US Medicaid system, the NY Times said. Coca-Cola has allocated $125 million of a $400 million increase in marketing and innovation spending to North America, the Wall Street Journal reported. A Maryland House of Delegates committee voted to pass a slot-machine gambling bill, bringing closer the prospect of for-profit slots coming to the state for the first time since 1968, the Washington Post said. Gangsta rap star 50 Cent is joining Sirius Satellite Radio to host his own show called “G Unit Radio,” the NY Post reported. Cablevision Systems, the largest cable-tv operator in NY, may put its cable systems up for sale later this year, the NY Post reported. Saudi Arabian Oil Minister al-Naimi said oil prices are likely to trade between $40-$50/bbl. this year, Dow Jones Newswires reported. Demand in the US for debt with maturities of 30 years or more may be spurred on expectations changes to legislation will be made to ensure company pension plans are properly funded, the Financial Times said. The number of unemployed in Germany rose to 5.2 million in February, the highest since WW II, Die Welt reported. Ryanair Holdings, Europe’s biggest low-cost airline, ordered 70 Boeing single-aisle planes worth more than $4 billion to more than double its capacity by 2012, Bloomberg reported. Wal-Mart CEO Scott said the company plans to expand in California because prices of food and household supplies are too high, Bloomberg said. China’s fixed-asset investment growth is at risk of rebounding and raw material and service price increases my push up inflation, the central bank said, signaling policies aimed at slowing the economy are unlikely to be relaxed, Bloomberg reported. The US and Russia pledged to extend previous agreements to prevent terrorists from obtaining nuclear weapons as President Bush met with President Putin to express concern about Putin’s commitment to democracy, Bloomberg said. Duke Energy is selling its interests in pipeline owner Teppco Partners LP to a company controlled by billionaire Dan Duncan and will use the proceeds to buy back up to $2.5 billion in stock, Bloomberg reported. Crude oil is nearly unchanged after the Energy Department reported that US stockpiles rose less than some forecast, Bloomberg said. IBM offered US national-security regulators concessions aimed at overcoming objections to the sale of its personal-computer unit to China’s Lenovo Group, Bloomberg reported. President Bush said he and Russian President Putin agreed that Iran and North Korea shouldn’t develop nuclear weapons, in talks he described as “open and candid,” Bloomberg said. US durable goods orders fell .9% in January, the first drop in three months, as lower demand for planes and autos offset a surge in capital equipment demand, Bloomberg reported.
S&P 500 1,192.62 +.15%
Dow 10,684.12 +.09%
NASDAQ 2,033.17 +.09%
Russell 2000 622.10 +.25%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,736.01 +.15%
S&P Barra Growth 573.54 +.19%
S&P Barra Value 614.72 +.11%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 584.42 +.31%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 760.98 +.25%
Morgan Stanley Technology 463.28 +.08%
Transports 3,647.19 +.98%
Utilities 347.39 +.58%
Put/Call 1.10 +27.91%
NYSE Arms 1.08 +44.0%
Volatility(VIX) 11.94 -3.63%
ISE Sentiment 184.00 +23.49%
US Dollar 82.82 +.17%
CRB 298.68 -.16%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 51.55 +.84%
Unleaded Gasoline 129.00 -1.63%
Natural Gas 6.45 +2.20%
Heating Oil 146.50 -1.22%
Gold 435.50 -.14%
Base Metals 127.28 -1.03%
Copper 147.80 -1.14%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.27% +.32%
Leading Sectors
Iron/Steel +2.47%
Homebuilders +1.98%
Semis +1.28%
Lagging Sectors
Gaming -.31%
Drugs -.41%
Internet -.78%
Market Movers
YHOO -5.0% on RBC Capital downgrade to Sector Perform.
GOOG -4.7% on RBC Capital downgrade to Sector Perform.
ANIK +35.29% after beating 4Q estimates substantially.
JOYG +17.66% after substantially beating 1Q estimates and raising 05 forecast.
PRST +11.97% on strong 4Q results.
YELL +5.2% after saying it successfully launched its next-day service with a 98% on-time performance record.
MATK +4.83% after saying it will replace Banknorth Group(BNK) in the S&P MidCap 400 after the close of trading on March 1.
FWHT -21.48% after missing 1Q revenue estimates and lowering 05 outlook.
ASKJ -7.82% on YHOO, GOOG and FWHT news.
Market Internals
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Hot Spots
Option Dragon
Economic Data
- Durable Goods Orders for January fell .9% versus estimates of unch. and an upwardly revised 1.4% rise in December.
- Durables Ex Transportation for January rose .8% versus estimates of a .3% increase and an upwardly revised 2.8% gain in December.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week rose to 312K versus estimates of 309K and 303K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims fell to 2650K versus estimates of 2693K and 2712K prior.
- Help Wanted Index for January rose to 41 versus estimates of 38 and a reading of 38 in December.
Recommendations
- Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on HD, MO, NEM, YUM, MSFT, DELL, GILD, BSX, JTX, ECA, CEN and JTX. Reiterated Underperform on INFA.
- Smith Barney: Reiterated Buy on PLUG, target $13. Reiterated Buy on ROP, target $70. Reiterated Buy on WTS, target $35. Reiterated Sell on JBX, target $34. Reiterated Sell on CIEN, target $2.40. Reiterated Buy on ESV, target $48. Reiterated Buy on LOW, target $70. Reiterated Buy on EEFT, target $35. Reiterated Buy on EFD, target $27. Reiterated Buy on BLS, target $25.41.
- UBS: Raised KRB to Buy, target $30.
- JP Morgan: Raised PLD to Overweight. Downgraded RPM to Underweight. Raised MDG to Overweight.
- Bear Stearns: Raised NTAP to Outperform.
- Legg Mason: Raised ANT to Buy, target $46.
- Oppenheimer: Rated RHB Buy, target $35.
- CIBC: Raised LAMR to Sector Outperform, target $50.
- Merrill Lynch: Rated BVN Buy, target $28. Raised MWV to Buy, target $36.
- Raymond James: Raised WCN to Strong Buy.
Mid-day News
US stocks are modestly higher mid-day on gains in transportation and homebuilding stocks. IBM is starting to provide shorter more limited technology service contracts because they are more profitable and favored by customers, the Wall Street Journal reported. Honeywell International, Philips Electronics, Motorola are among more than 100 companies that have agreed to make devices using ZigBee wireless technology, the Wall Street Journal reported. A NYC-based developer dropped plans to include a Wal-Mart Stores outlet in its planned Queens shopping center, ending the world’s largest retailer’s plans to open its first NYC store, the NY Times reported. GM, AT&T, Alcoa and other US companies may hold software vendors such as Microsoft responsible for flaws in their systems, the Wall Street Journal reported. Utah’s system of partial health insurance may become a model for changing the US Medicaid system, the NY Times said. Coca-Cola has allocated $125 million of a $400 million increase in marketing and innovation spending to North America, the Wall Street Journal reported. A Maryland House of Delegates committee voted to pass a slot-machine gambling bill, bringing closer the prospect of for-profit slots coming to the state for the first time since 1968, the Washington Post said. Gangsta rap star 50 Cent is joining Sirius Satellite Radio to host his own show called “G Unit Radio,” the NY Post reported. Cablevision Systems, the largest cable-tv operator in NY, may put its cable systems up for sale later this year, the NY Post reported. Saudi Arabian Oil Minister al-Naimi said oil prices are likely to trade between $40-$50/bbl. this year, Dow Jones Newswires reported. Demand in the US for debt with maturities of 30 years or more may be spurred on expectations changes to legislation will be made to ensure company pension plans are properly funded, the Financial Times said. The number of unemployed in Germany rose to 5.2 million in February, the highest since WW II, Die Welt reported. Ryanair Holdings, Europe’s biggest low-cost airline, ordered 70 Boeing single-aisle planes worth more than $4 billion to more than double its capacity by 2012, Bloomberg reported. Wal-Mart CEO Scott said the company plans to expand in California because prices of food and household supplies are too high, Bloomberg said. China’s fixed-asset investment growth is at risk of rebounding and raw material and service price increases my push up inflation, the central bank said, signaling policies aimed at slowing the economy are unlikely to be relaxed, Bloomberg reported. The US and Russia pledged to extend previous agreements to prevent terrorists from obtaining nuclear weapons as President Bush met with President Putin to express concern about Putin’s commitment to democracy, Bloomberg said. Duke Energy is selling its interests in pipeline owner Teppco Partners LP to a company controlled by billionaire Dan Duncan and will use the proceeds to buy back up to $2.5 billion in stock, Bloomberg reported. Crude oil is nearly unchanged after the Energy Department reported that US stockpiles rose less than some forecast, Bloomberg said. IBM offered US national-security regulators concessions aimed at overcoming objections to the sale of its personal-computer unit to China’s Lenovo Group, Bloomberg reported. President Bush said he and Russian President Putin agreed that Iran and North Korea shouldn’t develop nuclear weapons, in talks he described as “open and candid,” Bloomberg said. US durable goods orders fell .9% in January, the first drop in three months, as lower demand for planes and autos offset a surge in capital equipment demand, Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower mid-day as losses in my computer hardware and steel shorts are more than offsetting gains in my alternative energy longs and software shorts. I exited a few shorts this morning as they hit stop-losses, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market is mixed again as the advance/decline line is nearly unchanged, sector performance is mixed and volume is better. Measures of investor anxiety are also mixed, however the AAII % Bulls fell 12.49% this week to 31.82% which is a positive. As well, while the Help-wanted Index is not widely followed anymore, it jumped out of its trading range and to the highest levels since Feb.03. However, it is a negative that crude oil isn’t declining on today’s inventory data and OPEC seems happy with oil at $50/bbl. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close on short-covering ahead of tomorrow’s economic data.
Between the Hedges Wins Best Financial Industry/Investment Blog Award
Thank you very much for your support and taking the time to vote. Also, a special thanks to TraderMike, Seeking Alpha and Phat Investor for all the visitors they have sent my way over the past year. Finally, take a minute to go to the awards site and check out the other winning blogs.
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