Friday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Oil may fall for a fifth week amid rising US fuel inventories and speculation that losses on natural gas bets at Amaranth Advisors LLC will trigger selling of energy futures by other funds, a Bloomberg survey showed.
- Yagi Strengthened into a Supertyphoon, or Category 5 storm, with winds of 161 miles per hour, as it moved on a path US forecasters said will take it near Tokyo within 48 hours.
- Palestinian Authority President Abbas said a new national unity government he is forming will recognize Israel and renounce violence, key elements needed to get international aid flowing to the Gaza Strip and West Bank.
- China and Russia, both leading players in the effort to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear program, didn’t attend a US-hosted meeting on the issue, US Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill said.
- The 400 richest people in the US are all billionaires for the first time ever this year, according to Forbes Magazine’s annual list.
- Texas Instruments(TXN) said its board authorized the repurchase of an additional $5 billion of its common stock to boost returns for investors.
- Nike(NKE) said first-quarter profit fell 13% on stock-option expenses and higher marketing costs. The shares jumped as sales and orders rose more than analysts estimated.
- Palm(PALM) said first-quarter profit fell 9.2% as the company spent more to develop products and battled competitors. The shares rose after Palm announced a stock buyback.

China Business News:
- Iron ore prices will drop in the long term because of increasing global production capacity of the steel-making ingredient, citing Charles “Chip” Goodyear, the CEO of BHP Billiton(BHP).

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (NKE), target $104.
- PBM stocks oversold on Wal-mart(WMT) generic price cut.

Business Week:
- Schering-Plough Corp.(SGP) could be acquired or may consider merging with a rival pharmaceutical company, citing Catherine Arnold, an analyst with Credit Suisse.
- Newell Rubbermaid(NWL) shares will grow after increased spending on research and development, new products and advertising helped the company beat analysts’ earnings forecasts in the past two quarters, citing Lee Schultheis, investment chief at Alpha Hedged Strategies Fund.
- Drugmaker Cleveland BioLabs(CBLI) is expected to benefit from its partnership with Cleveland Clinic Foundation, famous for treating heart ailments and cancer, citing Cynthia Ekberg Tsai, general partner at Madelin Fund.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -% to -.% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- None of note

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
- None of note

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and automaker shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Lower on Weak Philly Fed and Profit-taking

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Profit-taking and Economic Slowdown Worries

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower into the final hour on losses in my Semi longs and Commodity shorts. I added (IWM) and (QQQQ) hedges today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is negative today as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are falling and volume is above-average. I expect we will see a pick-up in economic activity, after recent slowing, during the fourth quarter as the positive effects from the plunge in energy prices and lower long-term rates take hold. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, declining interest rates and bargain hunting.

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot
Detailed Market Summary
Market Internals
Economic Commentary
Movers & Shakers
Today in IBD
NYSE OrderTrac
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote

Stocks Finish Near Session Highs on Another Drop in Energy Prices and Dovish Fed Comments

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Computer longs, Semi longs and Commodity shorts. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was positive today as the advance/decline line finished higher, most sectors gained and volume was heavy. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower into the close. Overall, today's market performance was bullish. Oil temporarily fell below $60/bbl. this afternoon to $59.80. I think two stunning things are about to happen during the fourth quarter: Gas prices will fall below $2 a gallon nationwide on average, and the DJIA will bust out to an all-time high. Consumers will be absolutely stunned by both of these events. This will offset, to a large extent, the slowdown in housing. I will not be able to blog as much through tomorrow evening due to a scheduling conflict.

Stocks Sharply Higher into Final Hour as Dow Approaches All-Time High

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Retail, Computer longs and Commodity shorts. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive today as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are gaining and volume is heavy. While investors continue to wring their hands over semiconductor inventories, the stocks are moving higher. This has always been and always will be the way this group trades. By the time, their fundamentals are strong, the sector has already had a major run. Yesterday, the president of IC Insights said he expects IC revenue growth to accelerate to 8% next year and 20% in 2008. I believe his assumptions are conservative. The time to buy semis is now. I expect the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Sector Index (SOX) to test five-year highs of around 650 over the next two years, for a gain of around 40% from current levels. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, lower energy prices, less pessimism, declining interest rates and bargain hunting.