Portfolio Manager's Commentary on Investing and Trading in the U.S. Financial Markets
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Diminishing Financial Sector Pessimism, Lower Credit Market Angst, Bargain-Hunting
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Copper prices, headed for the first monthly gain since June, are poised to drop at least 33% as slowing growth in China erodes metal demand, said Gijsbert Groenewegen, a Gold Arrow Capital Management fund manager. Copper prices rose in January, even after the latest data available show China’s electricity output slid for four straight months through November, a sign of slower growth. An economic slump in China, the world’s biggest copper user, will spur a drop in copper prices as consumption slips, Groenewegen said. “All you need to do is look at China’s electricity use to see that growth there is going to be worse than people are expecting,” said NY-based Groenewegen. Prices will drop to at least $1 a pound and may trade as low as 70 cents, he said.
Wall Street Journal:
NY Times:
Business Week:
USA Today:
San Francisco Chronicle:
Washington Post:
AdWeek:
Financial Times Deutschland:
- Germany’s Christian Democratic Party is calling for a sale of the Bundesbank’s gold reserves to help weather the economic crisis. Steffen Kampeter, the CDU budget spokesman, wants the government to use the country’s gold and currency reserves to finance an economic rescue package.
Der Platow Brief:
- Deutsche Bank AG’s operating business may have had a “sensational” first three weeks of 2009. There is speculation the German bank may earn almost $1.3 billion in pretax profit in January, the newsletter said.
Die Zeit:
- Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the head of the IMF, said without more political coordination on economic policies the euro region is “in danger,” citing an interview.
The National:
Bear Radar
Style Underperformer:
Large-cap Value (+1.35%)
Sector Underperformers:
Gold (-1.36%), Drugs (-.23%) and Education (-.22%)
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
SFG, DV, NVS, NEM, WBSN, AMLN, BDX, LM and PLT
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
1) MT 2) CENX 3) CX 4) GERN 5) RCL
Bull Radar
Style Outperformer:
Mid-cap Value (+3.70%)
Sector Outperformers:
Banks (+11.87%), Homebuilders (+8.43%) and Disk Drives (+8.09%)
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
STT, WTFC, WFC, DB, PRU, PFG, PBR, PHG, ABB, SU, COCO, VPRT, ZION, TRMK, GPRO, WRLD, CATY, SPWRB, CHRW, PVTB, PRSP, FMBI, BEAT, STAR, YHOO, GMCR, SY, RGS, TOD, RHB, KIE, BBL, RKT and TDW
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
1) RHT 2) AMT 3) WLP 4) ITW 5) DISH
Links of Interest
Market Performance Summary
Style Performance
Sector Performance
WSJ Data Center
Top 20 Biz Stories
IBD Breaking News
Movers & Shakers
Upgrades/Downgrades
In Play
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
Option Dragon
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
Chart Toppers
Real-Time Intraday Quote/Chart
Dow Jones Hedge Fund Indexes
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Wednesday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
Wall Street Journal:
NY Times:
BusinessWeek:
Forbes:
IBD:
Philly.com:
AP:
TimesOnline:
- Hedge fund four helpfully stick their heads in the noose.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (ENR), target $85.
- Reiterated Buy on (CHRW), target $60.
- Reiterated Buy on (FORM), target $24.
- Reiterated Buy on (HSY), target $42.
- Reiterated Buy on (VZ), target $35.
- Reiterated Buy on (JAVA), target $6.70.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +1.75% on average.
S&P 500 futures +2.01%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +1.81%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories
Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (TDW)/1.92
- (PX)/.96
- (BHI)/1.26
- (WLP)/1.36
- (LM)/-.4.00
- (SO)/.25
- (BA)/.77
- (T)/.65
- (WFC)/.33
- (COP)/1.24
- (CVD)/.70
- (RHI)/.25
- (QCOM)/.47
- (ARG)/.75
- (ALL)/1.35
- (SYMC)/.32
- (RYL)/-1.18
- (SBUX)/.17
- (WDC)/.31
- (BSX)/.13
- (OI)/.39
- (DNB)/1.82
- (BXP)/1.35
- (CTXS)/.47
- (SY)/.61
- (HES)/.37
- (BDX)/1.15
- (SWK)/.59
- (
- (GD)/1.59
- (PCU)/.21
- (LRCX)/-.04
- (AMG)/1.20
Economic Releases
10:30 am EST
- Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +2,800,000 barrels versus a +6,100,000 barrel increase the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +1,750,000 barrels versus a +6,475,000 barrel increase the prior week. Distillate inventories are expected to fall by -1,125,000 barrels versus a +790,000 barrel increase the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.50% versus a -1.98% decline the prior week.
2:15 pm EST
- The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark fed funds rate at .25%.
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
- The weekly MBA mortgage applications report, Citi Financial Services Conference, World Economic Forum and (SQNM) analyst day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and technology stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly higher and to rally into the afternoon, finishing higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.