Portfolio Manager's Commentary on Investing and Trading in the U.S. Financial Markets
Monday, June 29, 2009
Links of Interest
Market Performance Summary
Style Performance
Sector Performance
WSJ Data Center
Top 20 Biz Stories
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In Play
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
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HFR Global Hedge Fund Indices
Monday Watch
Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Commodities, heading for the first quarterly advance in a year, may struggle to repeat their gains in the next three months as supply expands and speculators sell. Nickel may average 29% less in the third quarter than now, crude oil 16%, copper 14% and gasoline 10%, analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg show. Hedge funds and speculators cut their best on higher prices by 23% in the two weeks ended June 23, the first back-to-back drop since March. “Commodities have gotten a little ahead of themselves,” said Walter “Bucky” Hellwig, who helps oversee $30 billion at Morgan Asset Management in
- Strategists who came closest to predicting the US dollar’s value against the euro so far this year see it strengthening as much as 17% in the second half as the US recovers from the recession faster than Europe.
- LG Display Co., the world’s second-largest maker of liquid-crystal displays, rose 2.7 percent to 32,050 won, the highest since April 27. Eugene Investment & Securities Co. rated the stock “buy” with its 12-month share-price estimate of 40,000 won in a report today to initiate coverage of the stock. The second-quarter earnings will post a V-shaped recovery from the first, helped by a rise in shipments and panel prices, as well as lower production costs, the brokerage said.
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Wall Street Journal:
Barron’s:
NY Times:
San Francisco Chronicle:
NJ.com:
Rolling Stone:
InvestmentNews:
Financial Times:
Radio Television
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- Hewlett-Packard Co.(HPQ) will order more notebook computers than it had previously forecast from Quanta Computer Inc. and Inventec Co.. Hewlett-Packard increased its full-year estimate for shipments to 38 million notebooks from 34 million because of greater-than-expected demand in the second half of this year. Quanta will benefit from an increase in orders for consumer notebooks, while Inventec will be boosted by higher demand for corporate laptops.
Shana:
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (WEN).
- Made negative comments on (HSIC) and (PDCO).
Night Trading
Asian indices are -.25% to +.50% on avg.
S&P 500 futures -.31%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.24%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Futures
Top 25 Stories
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Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Earnings Calendar
Who’s Speaking?
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (APOL)/1.12
- (HRB)/2.05
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Economic Releases
- None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Rosengren speaking, Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer stocks in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.
Sunday, June 28, 2009
Weekly Outlook
Click here for Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Click here for US Equity Preview for Monday by Bloomberg.
There are a number of economic reports of note and just a few significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.
Economic reports for the week include:
Mon. –
Tues. – Weekly Retail Sales reports, S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index, Chicago Purchasing Manager, Consumer Confidence, NAPM-Milwaukee
Wed. – Weekly EIA energy inventory report, weekly MBA mortgage applications report, Challenger Job Cuts, ADP Employment Change, ISM Manufacturing, ISM Prices, Paid, Construction Spending, Pending Home Sales, Total Vehicle Sales
Thur. – Change in Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Initial Jobless Claims, Factory Orders
Fri. – US Markets Closed
Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:
Mon. – Apollo Group(APOL), H&R Block(HRB)
Tues. – Schnitzer Steel(SCHN)
Wed. – Constellation Brands(STZ), General Mills(GIS)
Thur. – Acuity Brands(AYI)
Fri. – US Markets Closed
Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:
Mon. – The Fed’s Rosengren speaking
Tue. – The Fed’s Bullard speaking, Fed’s Hoenig speaking, Fed’s Yellen speaking, Goldman Sachs Data Center Conference, (TDG) analyst meeting, (BBBY) shareholders meeting, (PBH) shareholders meeting
Wed. – The Fed’s Evans speaking
Thur. – (DDUP) shareholders meeting
Fri. – US Markets Closed
BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on diminishing financial sector pessimism, short-covering, diminishing credit market angst, quarter-end window dressing, investment manager performance anxiety, lower long-term rates and declining energy prices. My trading indicators are giving mixed signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.
Saturday, June 27, 2009
Friday, June 26, 2009
Weekly Scoreboard*
Indices
S&P 500 918.90 -.25%
DJIA 8,438.39 -1.19%
NASDAQ 1,838.22 +.59%
Russell 2000 513.22 +.10%
Wilshire 5000 9,335.23 -.14%
Russell 1000 Growth 410.30 -.04%
Russell 1000 Value 464.0 -.32%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 558.35 -.10%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 552.53 -.10%
Morgan Stanley Technology 451.81 +.20%
Transports 3,263.07 +1.35%
Utilities 355.79 +1.18%
MSCI Emerging Markets 32.29 +1.25%
Sentiment/Internals
NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 34,397 +3.70%
Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index +71 +273.17%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 21.0 +31.2%
CFTC Oil Large Speculative Longs 201,463 +.05%
Total Put/Call .81 -8.99%
OEX Put/Call .77 -22.22%
ISE Sentiment 98.0 -16.24%
NYSE Arms 1.37 +47.31%
Volatility(VIX) 25.93 -7.36%
G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 14.31 -.21%
Smart Money Flow Index 8,129.74 -1.10%
AAII % Bulls 28.0 -15.99%
AAII % Bears 48.80 +5.10%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 69.16 -1.23%
Reformulated Gasoline 187.41 -2.64%
Natural Gas 4.10 -2.75%
Heating Oil 173.03 -3.47%
Gold 941.0 +.70%
Base Metals 153.41 +1.43%
Copper 230.90 +2.78%
Agriculture 315.36 -1.36%
Economy
10-year
10-year TIPS Spread 1.69% -24 basis points
TED Spread 43.0 -1 basis point
N. Amer. Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 141.20 +1.68%
Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 409.68 -.29%
Citi US Economic Surprise Index +51.90 -4.77%
Fed Fund Futures imply 88.2% chance of no change, 11.8% chance of 25 basis point cut on 8/12
Iraqi 2028 Govt Bonds 64.53 -2.22%
4-Wk MA of Jobless Claims 617,300 +.10%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 5.42% +4 basis points
Weekly Mortgage Applications 548,200 +6.57%
Weekly Retail Sales -4.50%
Nationwide Gas $2.66/gallon -.03/gallon
US Cooling Demand Next 7 Days 10.0% above normal
ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 117.60 +.51%
US Dollar Index 79.88 -.48%
Baltic Dry Index 3,703 -9.02%
CRB Index 251.31 -.59%
Best Performing Style
Small-cap Growth +.22%
Worst Performing Style
Large-cap Value -.32%
Leading Sectors
Telecom +3.12%
Computer Hardware +2.94%
Education +2.66%
Biotech +2.36%
Medical Equipment +2.30%
Lagging Sectors
Oil Service -2.40%
Banks -2.44%
Defense -3.78%
Coal -4.26%
Oil Tankers -4.72%