- A host of European banks face potential losses on an estimated $40 billion in exposure to Dubai after the city state's largest corporate entity, Dubai World, asked creditors for a six month standstill on debt repayments, raising fears that recent signs of improvements in banks' bad debt levels could stall. Most banks on Thursday said their exposure to Dubai and Dubai World is small or wouldn't comment.Switzerland's Credit Suisse Group (CS) said its exposure to Dubai World is "not material." According to analysis of Dealogic data, other banks who have worked on bond and loan financings for Dubai entities include Barclays PLC (BCS), Citigroup Inc. (C) and Deutsche Bank AG (DB). Barclays didn't immediately return calls. Citigroup declined to comment, while a person familiar with the matter said Deutsche Bank's exposure to Dubai World isn't noteworthy. Bank analysts at NCB Stockbrokers said Standard Chartered PLC (STAN.LN) is the U.K. bank proportionately most exposed to the United Arab Emirates, with 7% of its loan book in the region. HSBC has about 2% of its loan book in the region, while Barclays, RBS and Lloyds have less than 1% of their loans in the UAE. Dubai World accounts for about $60 billion of the city state's $80 billion in liabilities, of which half is estimated by analysts to be held by European banks. Banks that acted as arrangers or bookrunners on Dubai World's most recent $5.5 billion loan facility in June 2008 include HSBC, RBS, Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG), ING Groep N.V. (ING) and Credit Agricole SA's (ACA.FR) Calyon, as well as Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ (MTU), Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (JD-SMU), Emirates Bank and Mashreq Bank (MASQ.DFM). Calyon in an email said it has a "small exposure" to Dubai World's debt, and that it doesn't think it has any cause to worry about the announced restructuring. ING said its exposure is negligible.
Business Week: - Tesco Lands Deal to Sell Apple(AAPL) iPhones.In a blow to rivals Orange and Vodafone, British supermarket giant Tesco has snagged a deal to sell the iPhone before Christmas in partnership with carrier O2.
- Fannie Mae, the giant mortgage finance company that helps shape lending guidelines, plans next month to raise minimum credit score requirements and limit the amount of overall debt that borrowers can carry relative to their incomes. The changes are the latest in a series of crackdowns by the mortgage industry and could surprise some prospective home buyers. The industry is rolling back loose lending standards that led to the mortgage meltdown and the subsequent economic crisis. But the fear is that if the industry becomes too restrictive, it will freeze out too many borrowers and impede an economic recovery.
The Detroit News:
- ‘Climategate’ puts warming in question. President Barack Obama is about to stride off to Copenhagen, where he'll sign away any hope that America can return to sustained prosperity. The president promises next month's international palaver on climate change will be marked by aggressive action to combat global warming and a firm commitment by the United States to shoulder its share of the responsibility. Translation: Obama will pledge the United States to curbing its appetite for energy, and thus its economic growth, will make reducing emissions a higher priority than creating new jobs and will agree to transfer $1.6 trillion of our wealth to China, India and the other booming developing economies. And it may be based on doctored numbers. The so-called Climategate scandal hasn't hit the front pages of American newspapers yet and may never. But it ought to at least raise the skepticism level of a public that has been panicked into believing the sky is falling, or the polar caps are melting, because of manmade global warming. Purloined e-mails between some of the leading producers of climate change science reveal what seems to be a deliberate attempt to manipulate and distort data to deliver the desired outcome.The e-mails were hacked from the United Kingdom's University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit, an institution that has led in documenting global warming and whose findings have driven United Nations' environmental policy. The research unit has been notoriously protective of its data, fighting off those who want a closer look at its methodology. Messages between the unit's scientists and officials suggest a deliberate campaign to answer calls for public disclosure with a smear job against those who question the validity of climate change science. The scandal provides an opening for the United States, which will pay the highest price if a climate change treaty is signed, to say, "Let's call a time-out and look at the tape." Research skeptical of climate change is denounced as quackery. But science should never be "settled," as the global warming industry has declared this matter to be. Nor should it be cause driven, massaged to align with popular movements. It should be cold, impassive and willing to prove itself against dissenting theories. It should welcome new evidence, even if it alters its assumptions. This isn't how climate change scientists work, according to the stolen e-mails. The British center seems motivated entirely by defending its findings to perpetuate the public policies it worked so hard to influence. It also seems willing to destroy findings that dispute their established position. This is why we can't get a credible answer to why global temperatures have been flat for a decade. The warming warriors who cited every abnormality in weather patterns -- falling lake levels, droughts, hurricanes, milder winters -- as proof of climate change's impact, now tell us that the reversal or disappearance of those abnormalities are a cyclical blip within the longer trend. Maybe, maybe not. We can't be sure because the science is settled, and those who would tackle contrary research do so at their own peril. This matters because world leaders are about to embark on an environmental crusade that will dramatically alter the international economy and the quality of our lives. We are obliged to make sure the research can be trusted.
- Iraq aims to install four new floating oil terminals and three new undersea oil pipelines that will boost export capacity to 8 million barrels per day from a current 1.9 million bpd, a top oil official said. Dhiya Jaafar, current chief of Iraq's South Oil Co. (SOC), which oversees the bulk of exports from the country's vast oil reserves, on Wednesday told Reuters work should be completed on the new terminals and pipelines in the second half of 2011. Iraq has a clutch of deals with global oil majors that it hopes will push it to third from eleventh place among the world's oil producers. A contract with Britain's BP and China's CNPC to develop the country's super-giant Rumaila field has already been finalized. BP, CNPC and the SOC have agreed that current production from Rumaila is 1.05 million bpd, Jaafar said. The baseline output figure will be used to determine the foreign firms' future performance in boosting output, to which their level of remuneration is pegged. Iraqi oil exports reached 1.868 million bpd in October, including exports from the country's northern fields.
Earnings of Note Company/EPS Estimate - None of note
Economic Releases
- None of note
Upcoming Splits - None of note
Other Potential Market Movers -None of note
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, weighed down by commodity and automaker shares in the region. I expect US equities to open sharply lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher into the final hour on gains in my Technology longs, Medical longs and Biotech longs and Retail longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is mildly positive as the advance/decline line is slightly higher, most sectors are rising and volume is light. Investor anxiety is high. Today’s overall market action is mildly bullish. The VIX is falling -.44% and is high at 20.38. The ISE Sentiment Index is above average at 198.0 and the total put/call is slightly above average at .86. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running around average most of the day, hitting 1.01 at its intraday peak, and is currently .90. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling -3.0% to 71.50 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is falling -.64% to 102.12 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is falling -1 basis point to 22 basis points. The TED spread is now down 442 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is rising +5.6% to 29.38 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is down -1 basis point to 12 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is unch. at 2.15%, which is down -50 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .04%, which is up +1 basis point today. Many market leading stocks are substantially outperforming the broad market.Cyclical shares are also outperforming, with the MS Cyclical Index jumping +1.44%.Gaming, Steel, Gold, Coal and Ag shares are especially strong, rising 1.75%+.MBA weekly mortgage applications fell -4.47% this week due to a -9.5% decline in refis, however purchase apps surged +9.58%.Moreover, Business Loans jumped +3.4% in the latest report from the St. Louis Federal Reserve, the largest percentage gain in many years, which is also a big positive.Given today’s positive economic reports, I am surprised US stocks aren’t rising more.However, this could be due to thinly populated trading desks and I suspect stocks will mount a better showing next week. With short interest rising over the last few weeks and many bear funds down significantly for the year, I expect another spike in short-covering on any meaningful break above current levels. Nikkei futures indicate an +1 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +1 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, diminishing healthcare reform worries, lower long-term rates, less economic fear, technical buying, investment manager performance anxiety and seasonal strength.
- The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level since September 2008 as the economic recovery encourages companies to fire fewer workers. Initial jobless claims declined to 466,000 in the week ended Nov. 21 from 501,000 a week earlier, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The number of people collecting unemployment insurance dropped in the prior week, while those getting extended payments also declined. After slashing more than 7 million jobs in the past two years, companies may have little margin to cut further without threatening their capacity to ramp up production as the economy recovers. The government may report next week that employers in November shed the fewest jobs in 20 months. The report showed the four-week moving average of initial claims, a less volatile measure, dropped to 496,500 last week from 513,000 the prior week. Continuing claims declined by 190,000 in the week ended Nov. 14 to 5.423 million. They were forecast to drop to 5.57 million. Today’s report showed the unemployment rate among people eligible for jobless benefits, which tends to track the jobless rate, fell to 4.1 percent in the week ended Nov. 14 from 4.3 percent.
- Fixed 30-year mortgage rates dropped for a fourth consecutive week, matching a record low set in April, in a decline that may further support increasing sales in the battered housing market. The rate dropped to 4.78 percent from 4.83 percent last week, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac of McLean, Virginia, said today in a statement. The average 15-year rate was 4.29 percent. Low mortgage costs and a tax credit for first-time homebuyers are helping increase demand for property, putting existing home sales on pace to hit 6.1 million this year. A falling number of unsold homes is also beginning to stabilize prices. The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index rose 0.27 percent in September from August, the fourth consecutive gain. “When mortgage rates track down to well below 5 percent, that is a key threshold that generates a lot of interest in terms of new purchases and refinancing,” said Brian Bethune, chief financial economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. “The market is gradually pulling out of this huge hole, this huge recession it was in.”
- Dubai World, with $59 billion of liabilities, said it will seek to delay debt payments, sending contracts to protect the emirate against default surging by the most since they began trading in January. The state-controlled company will ask all creditors for a “standstill” agreement as it negotiates to extend maturities, including $3.52 billion of Islamic bonds due on Dec. 14 from its property unit Nakheel PJSC, the builder of palm tree-shaped islands, Dubai World said in an e-mailed statement. Moody’s Investors Service said it would consider the plan a default should bondholders be forced to accept the terms. “Extending the maturity of Nakheel debt is feeding the market’s uncertainty on which debt Dubai will honor in full,” said Rachel Ziemba, a senior analyst covering sovereign wealth funds at New York-based Roubini Global Economics. “They look desperate and the market is concerned that in the long term Dubai’s indebtedness is rising not falling.”
- Purchases of new homes in the U.S. rebounded more than anticipated in October as buyers rushed to take advantage of a government tax credit before it expired. Sales rose 6.2 percent to an annual pace of 430,000, the highest level since September 2008, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The median sales price fell 0.5 percent and the number of unsold homes reached a four-decade low. Sales of new homes were up 5.1 percent from October 2008, the first year-over-year gain since November 2005. Inventories dropped. The number of homes for sale fell to a seasonally adjusted 239,000, the fewest since May 1971. The supply of homes at the current sales rate decreased to 6.7 months’ worth, the lowest level since December 2006. The erosion in prices is also abating, the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index showed yesterday. Home prices in 20 cities rose in September from the prior month, the fourth straight gain.
- China blamed a “lack of good faith” on the part of developed nations for hampering talks on a treaty to fight global warming less than two weeks before the start of the United Nations climate summit in Copenhagen. Two years of talks have stalled amid disputes over the extent of emission reduction pledges by wealthier countries, policies to be implemented by the developing world and aid by the former to the latter to combat climate change. Neither China nor the U.S., the world’s biggest emitters, has proposed targets for lowering their greenhouse gases. “The reason that we have not seen sufficient progress in the negotiations so far, personally speaking, I think is because of a lack of good faith by developed countries,” Yu Qingtai, the Foreign Ministry’s climate-change envoy, told reporters in Beijing. He offered no new proposals on the part of China ahead of the talks, which begin Dec. 7.
- Democratic incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand may have a serious problem on her hands if Rudy Giuliani gets in next year’s race for the U.S. Senate in New York State.