Friday, March 26, 2010

Today's Headlines


Bloomberg:

  • AT&T(T) Sees First-Quarter $1 Billion Charge on Health Care Reform. AT&T said it will take a $1 billion first-quarter charge related to the passage of the U.S. health care legislation.
  • Trichet's Diplomacy 'Mask' Slips as EU Turns to IMF. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet is struggling to disguise his unease about the International Monetary Fund’s role in any Greek bailout.Trichet said late yesterday he’s “extraordinarily happy” that governments have agreed on a Greek rescue plan, which includes funding from the Washington-based IMF. Just hours earlier, he dismissed the notion of giving any power to the IMF as “very, very bad.” “He let his mask of diplomacy slip briefly last night but he then pretty rapidly put it back on,” said Jacques Cailloux, chief European economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. “He is not as happy as he claims and his earlier IMF comments show that he was disappointed and sidelined.”
  • Global oil demand growth will peak in the next 10 years, Saudi Arabian oil adviser Ibrahim Muhanna said in a speech published in the Middle East Economic Survey. Oil consumption will not rise further after reaching between 95 million and 100 million barrels a day at some point before the end of the decade, Muhanna said. Oil prices are expected to remain between $70-$90 a barrel during that period, he said. Demand will continue to decline in the OECD as the world's most industrialized countries increase fuel efficiency and use of renewable energy increases, according to Muhanna, who advises Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi.
  • Markets 'Not Pricing' Potential Risks, Artradis Says. Stock, currency and bond investors are underestimating the risk that government efforts worldwide to stabilize markets may fail, according to a hedge-fund manager at Artradis Fund Management Pte. Instruments that thrive on volatility, such as options, are “attractive,” said David Dredge, a managing director at Singapore-based Artradis, which manages $1.4 billion of funds that place wagers on price swings. “Markets are not pricing potential risks very aggressively,” Dredge said in an interview yesterday. “The price for risk once again is very, very cheap.”
  • Dubai Credit Spreads Are 'Unattractive,' Morgan Stanley Says. Investors should “unwind” exposure to Dubai government debt because the restructuring plan proposed for state-owned Dubai World won’t do enough to reduce the emirate’s debt burden, Morgan Stanley said. “At current levels the risk/reward profile of Dubai sovereign spreads looks unattractive, and we advise investors to close their exposure to the credit,” Morgan Stanley’s London- based strategist Paolo Batori wrote in a research report dated today.
  • The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for commodities, extended its worst losing streak this year as rates for vessels that can haul iron ore continue to be depressed by price talks involving China's steelmakers. The index tracking transport costs on international trade routes had a ninth straight drop, shedding 79 points, or 2.5%, to 3,098 points today, according to the Baltic Exchange. The gauge has fallen 13% during its current run.
  • Greenspan Calls Treasury Yields 'Canary in the Mine'. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the recent rise in Treasury yields represents a “canary in the mine” that may signal further gains in interest rates. Higher yields reflect investor concerns over “this huge overhang of federal debt which we have never seen before,” Greenspan said in an interview today on Bloomberg Television. “I’m very much concerned about the fiscal situation,” said Greenspan, 84, who headed the central bank from 1987 to 2006. An increase in long-term interest rates “will make the housing recovery very difficult to implement and put a dampening on capital investment as well.” The U.S. budget deficit reached a record $1.4 trillion for the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30 amid falling tax revenue from the recession, a bailout of the banking and auto industries, and the $787 billion economic stimulus package. “I don’t like American politics and what’s happening,” Greenspan said. Historically, there has been “a large buffer between the level of our federal debt and our capacity to borrow,” he said. “That’s narrowing. And I’m finding it very difficult to look into the future and not worry about that.”
  • Negative Swap Spreads Indicative of Treasury Glut, Bianco Says. The decline in rates to exchange fixed- for floating-rate obligations below comparable maturity Treasury yields indicates demand may be waning for government debt amid record sales, according to Bianco Research LLC. The U.S.’s marketable debt has risen to an unprecedented $7.4 trillion to fund a budget deficit the government predicts will swell to $1.6 trillion in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30.
  • Lead Open Interest, at 15-Month High, May Signal Lower Prices. Lead futures outstanding, or open interest, rose to a 15-month high on the London Metal Exchange, suggesting investors may expect prices to extend their worst start to a year since at least 1987. The metal for delivery in three months fell 13 percent this year on the LME as open interest advanced 23 percent to 122,920 contracts, the most since December 2008, bourse data show. Rising open interest combined with declining prices suggests new short positions, or bets on lower prices, being taken, said Dan Smith, an analyst at Standard Chartered Plc in London. Stockpiles in warehouses monitored by the LME have almost tripled in a year as output surpassed demand, reaching their highest since July 2003. Lead production outpaced demand by more than 200,000 tons last year and the surplus is expected to be at least as high this year, according to Brook Hunt, a Wood Mackenzie company.
  • Recess Raises Specter of Obama Labor Move to Business Groups. U.S. business groups and Republican lawmakers are stepping up efforts to ward off a labor appointment by President Barack Obama that might trigger a surge in union organizing efforts. Obama may appoint union lawyer Craig Becker to the National Labor Relations Board after Congress leaves this week for a scheduled Easter recess, a step that would circumvent the need for Senate confirmation. Labor Secretary Hilda Solis told the AFL-CIO, the largest U.S. union organization, in a speech March 3 that it “will be very pleased” by what Obama was planning. Becker would be the second Democrat and third member of the five-seat board, providing a quorum to clear a backlog of more than 210 cases. Among them are disputes with casino owner MGM Mirage and auto-parts maker Dana Holding Corp. The Democratic majority may adopt policies helping unions to recruit while limiting employers, according to the National Association of Manufacturers. “You will see a radical overhaul of the labor law system,” said Keith Smith, director of employment and labor policy at the Washington-based industry group. “You could see significant limits on employers’ ability to communicate.” Labor unions spent a record $450 million to help elect Democrats to the White House and Congress in 2008. Becker failed to win Senate confirmation to a five-year term last month after two Democrats joined Republicans to block his nomination. Obama could now appoint Becker to serve through 2011, or until the end of the next session of Congress.
  • China to Begin Stock Index Futures Trades on April 16. China will begin trading of stock- index futures on April 16, bolstering an equities market that has been the world’s third-worst performer this year. The first contracts to trade will be for May, June, September and December, according to a statement today by the China Financial Futures Exchange. Investors must pay cash deposits equivalent to 15 percent of the contract value for May and June contracts and 18 percent for longer-term contracts.
  • Unemployment Climbs in 27 States, Falls in Seven. Unemployment increased in 27 U.S. states in February and dropped in seven, a sign the labor market needs to pick up across more regions to spur consumer spending and sustain the economic recovery. Mississippi showed the biggest jump in joblessness with a 0.4 percentage point rise to 11.4 percent, according to figures issued today by the Labor Department in Washington. Nationally, unemployment held at 9.7 percent in February for a second month and employers cut fewer jobs than anticipated, figures from the Labor Department showed on March 5. Today’s report indicates broad-based hiring is yet to develop following the loss of 8.4 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007. Florida, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina set record levels of joblessness last month.
  • Brazil Stocks Becoming 'Bubble,' UBS's Cremoux Says. Brazil’s stock market is forming a “bubble” and may suffer a “correction” next year as valuations soar, according to Gerard Cremoux, co-head of Latin America investment banking at UBS AG. The increase in companies issuing shares shows that Brazil’s stock market is becoming overvalued, Cremoux said. “Brazil looks like a bubble,” Cremoux said at Columbia University in New York. “The market expects a lot of activity in Brazil this year. We might see the biggest equity offering ever. You can become a bit skeptical.” Brazil’s economy is at risk of “overheating” and the country’s currency is “overvalued,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategist Ben Laidler said at the same conference.

Wall Street Journal:
  • Calpers Deals Part of Probe by Justice Into Pay-Play. Federal criminal investigators are looking into possible wrongdoing involving investment transactions of public pension funds including Calpers, according to people familiar with the matter. Justice Department investigators in Los Angeles have been looking at whether potentially illegal payments were made to influence decisions on where to invest public pension-fund money, these people said. Among the matters being examined, they said, are investments made by the California Public Employees' Retirement System, the nation's biggest public pension fund by assets.
  • Steelmakers Plead Case to Representatives. The chief executive officers of the biggest U.S. steelmakers warned Thursday that proposed limits on carbon emissions and underspending on infrastructure and energy markets could derail the industry's nascent recovery. At a meeting with Steel Caucus members of the U.S. House of Representatives, steel producers stepped up their lobbying efforts to ward off climate-control and energy legislation they say would add hundreds of millions of dollars in costs and lead to job losses.
  • Fed Official Backs Asset Sales Before Rate Rises. The Federal Reserve should consider selling some of its portfolio of mortgage-backed securities even before raising official interest rates in order to make monetary policy more effective, the president of the Philadelphia Fed said Friday. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Charles Plosser said the Fed needs to shrink its balance sheet in order to make future changes to its main policy tools, the federal funds and discount rates, more effective.
  • Allawi Bloc Wins Iraq Elections, in Upset.
  • Restaurants See Signs of Spring. Customers are coming back, suppliers have lowered prices and it's the best wild mushroom season in years.
CNBC:
NY Post:
  • Radioshack(RSH) Search. Retailer Exploring Sale and Share Buyback Options. RadioShack is looking to shack up with a deep-pocketed investor. The Texas-based electronics chain is exploring strategic alternatives including a possible sale of the company that could fetch more than $3 billion, sources told The Post.
  • InVentiv(VTIV) Calls Upon Goldman for Held. InVentiv Health, a New Jersey-based pharmaceutical service provider, is quietly seeking a buyer. The company, whose shares and debt total $813 million, is using Goldman Sachs to conduct an auction, and is starting to have management meetings with suitors, a source told The Post.
Business Insider:
  • New York Times Staffers Furious Over The Huge Raise Executives Gave Themselves. Some New York Times Co. (NYT) staffers are boiling about their top executives' huge $12 million payouts in 2009. Chairman Arthur Sulzberger Jr.'s compensation more than doubled in 2009, to nearly $6 million. President and CEO Janet Robinson also boosted her earnings by 32%, to $6.3 million. During the same year, the New York newsroom lost 100 staffers to buyouts and layoffs, along with pay and benefit cuts at sister publications.
Charlotte Observer:
  • Carolinas' Unemployment at Record Rates. North Carolina’s unemployment rate nudged to a new high in February as more than 11,000 workers started searching for work even as thousands of jobs were cut, the state’s Employment Security Commission reported today. North Carolina’s unemployment rate rose to 11.2 percent last month, up a notch from 11.1 percent in January. February’s jobless rate is the highest since states started their current calculation method in 1976. It’s been 13 months since the state’s jobless rate first edged above its previous high. South Carolina’s jobless rate was unchanged in February as the number of unemployed in the state shrank for the time in more than two years. The unemployment rate was 12.5 percent in South Carolina last month, same as the revised 12.5 reading from January, the S.C. Employment Security Commission reported today.
Miami Herald:
  • On The Brink? Miami is Warned of New Budget Crisis. If City Manager Carlos Migoya's projections prove accurate, Miami could be on the verge of declaring a fiscal emergency -- triggering a law requiring the city to notify the governor it's in financial jeopardy, the city attorney warned Thursday. The dire news from City Attorney Julie Bru came near the end of a lengthy discussion on the city's reeling budget and projections showing the numbers may not soon improve. Miami commissioners voted unanimously Thursday to use $53.6 million of the city's reserves to finally balance its 2009 books. At the same time, they were told 2010 is already more than $28 million in the red, and that lawsuits against the city could raise that number. The bottom line: A reserve that overflowed with more than $141 million earlier this decade now sits at $39 million and could nearly empty by year's end.
Politico:
  • 2,000 House Staffers Make Six Figures. Nearly 2,000 House of Representative staffers pulled down six-figure salaries in 2009, including 43 staffers who earned the maximum $172,500 — or more than three times the median U.S. household income.
Real Clear Politics:
  • The VAT Cometh. As the night follows the day, the VAT cometh. With the passage of Obamacare, creating a vast new middle-class entitlement, a national sales tax of the kind near-universal in Europe is inevitable. We are now $8 trillion in debt. The Congressional Budget Office projects that another $12 trillion will be added over the next decade. Obamacare, when stripped of its budgetary gimmicks -- the unfunded $200 billion-plus doctor fix, the double counting of Medicare cuts, the 10-6 sleight-of-hand (counting 10 years of revenue and only 6 years of outflows) -- is at minimum a $2 trillion new entitlement.
Sydney Morning Herald:
  • South Korean Navy Ship Sinks Near Border With North. A South Korean navy ship with 104 people on board sank near the North Korean border Friday after an unexplained explosion, military officials said, and a news report said several sailors were killed. South Korea's government called an emergency security meeting but a presidential spokeswoman said it was still unclear whether the sinking resulted from a clash with North Korea.
China Daily:
  • Sino-US Tensions Show No Sign of Easing. There are no clear signals of an easing in trade and political tensions in Sino-US relations despite the hope generated by the visits of two Chinese vice-ministers to Washington. He asked Washington not to blame others for its own problems, "otherwise, the outcome would just be the opposite". Huo Jianguo, dean of the Trade Research Institute affiliated to the Ministry of Commerce, urged Washington to tread cautiously. "The US government should be sober-minded on the issue of labeling China a currency manipulator. It should not be carried away by domestic political pressure," he said.

Bear Radar


Style Underperformer:

Small-Cap Growth (-.55%)

Sector Underperformers:
Disk Drives (-1.60%), Software (-1.30%) and HMOs (-1.30%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
PNFP, MED, ASBC, ALNY, SNCR, TECD, PBR, COP, ATAC, HURN, TRIT, DWA, ORCL, VITC, STX, PRGS, NTCT, PWRD, ATHN, VECO, HAWK, CTRP, INFA, SCHL, SHPGY, PVG, SNX and BTM

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
1) NOV 2) VIP 3) OSG 4) DNR 5) EP

Bull Radar


Style Outperformer:

Large-Cap Value (+.74%)

Sector Outperformers:
Gaming (+2.14%), Airlines (+2.11%) and Alternative Energy (+1.83%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
LNC, GNW, DB, CLF, TIE, SNP, TIBX, SRX, WBD, VTIV, FINL, FRED, GENZ, RECN, RYAAY, OVTI, SANM, FSLR, RTI, FHN, SLM, GGC and APL

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
1)
ATHR 2) OVTI 3) BONT 4) EAT 5) COH

Friday Watch


Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Trichet Welcomes Greek Pact, Reversing Earlier IMF Criticism. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet welcomed a European Union agreement on an aid plan for Greece, toning down his earlier criticism that the International Monetary Fund was involved in the package. “It was a complex situation,” Trichet told reporters in Brussels late yesterday. “I am extraordinarily happy that the governments of the euro area found out a workable solution.” Earlier, he said that an IMF role in the funding of a rescue framework for Greece would be “very, very bad.” Trichet is concerned that turning to the IMF to help Greece cope with the EU’s largest budget deficit would show that Europe can’t fix its own problems and earlier this month dismissed such a move as “inappropriate.” The EU has struggled to produce an in-house rescue plan for Greece, contributing to the euro’s 12 percent slide against the dollar since November. Before the decision was reached, Trichet told France’s Public Senat television that “if the IMF or any other authority exercises any responsibility instead of the euro group, instead of the governments, this would clearly be very, very bad.” EU President Herman Van Rompuy said that the “lion’s share” of funding for Greece would come from the EU, with the rest from the IMF.
  • Bullard Says Fed Must Start Planning Now for Future Asset Sales. The Federal Reserve must start making plans now for asset sales to meet its goal of returning a record $2.32 trillion balance sheet to its pre-crisis size and makeup, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said. “We want to someday get back to a pre-crisis balance sheet -- both the size of it and the fact that it would be an all- Treasuries balance sheet,” Bullard said today in a telephone interview. “There does seem to be agreement that you want to get back to a normal-looking balance sheet at some point in the future.”
  • U.S. Said to Widen Homeowner Aid, Subsidize Mortgage Reductions. The Obama administration plans to announce programs to help homeowners avoid foreclosure, including subsidies for borrowers who owe more than their home is worth. The plan, to be unveiled tomorrow, would expand Treasury Department and Federal Housing Administration programs and use funds from the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program, according to two administration officials. Foreclosures are expected to climb to 4.5 million this year from 2.8 million in 2009, according to RealtyTrac Inc., an Irvine, California-based research firm. The administration of President Barack Obama and banks including Wells Fargo & Co. and Bank of America Corp. have so far fallen short of meeting goals of the government’s foreclosure-prevention program, according to a report by Neil Barofsky, the TARP special inspector general. “As long as the administration continues to sidestep the larger issues such as job creation and how they intend to deal with Fannie and Freddie, subsequent misadventures into the mortgage market will continue to be an exercise in futility,” said Representative Darrell Issa of California.
  • Man Group Said to Talk With SAC, GLG in Search for U.S. Deals. Man Group Plc, the biggest publicly traded hedge-fund manager, is scouting investments, acquisitions and distribution deals in the U.S. and has spoken with firms including SAC Capital Advisors LLP and GLG Partners Inc., according to two people with knowledge of the discussions.
  • Half of U.S. Home Loan Modifications Default Again. More than half of U.S. borrowers who received loan modifications on delinquent mortgages defaulted again after nine months, according to a federal report. The re-default rate of loans modified in the first quarter of 2009 was 51.5 percent by the end of the year, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision said in a joint report today. The figure, which measures payments at least 30 days late, climbed to 57.9 percent for changes made in the prior 12 months. U.S. homeowners are struggling to make payments as depressed housing prices leave them owing more than their properties are worth. About 24 percent of properties with a mortgage were underwater in the fourth quarter, First American CoreLogic said last month. The median price of a U.S. home was $165,100 in February, down 28 percent from its peak in July 2006, according to the National Association of Realtors. Modifications are “clearly not working well and it’s not a surprise,” said Sam Khater, a senior economist at First American CoreLogic in Tysons Corner, Virginia. “It’s pointless to rewrite these loans because they’re underwater.”
  • JPMorgan(JPM), Lehman, UBS(UBS) Named as Conspirators in Muni Bid-Rigging. JPMorgan Chase & Co., Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and UBS AG were among more than a dozen Wall Street firms involved in a conspiracy to pay below-market interest rates to U.S. state and local governments on investments, according to documents filed in a U.S. Justice Department criminal antitrust case. A government list of previously unidentified “co- conspirators” contains more than two dozen bankers at firms also including Bank of America Corp., Bear Stearns Cos., Societe Generale, two of General Electric Co.’s financial businesses and Salomon Smith Barney, the former unit of Citigroup Inc., according to documents filed in U.S. District Court in Manhattan on March 24.
  • Swap Spreads Stay Negative as Investors Focus on Sovereign Risk. The decline of U.S. interest rate swap spreads to the lowest levels on record reflects a shift in investor focus from the plight of financial institutions to the ability of nations to finance rising fiscal deficits. The rate to exchange floating- for fixed-interest payments for 10 years this week fell below the comparable-maturity Treasury yield for the first time on March 23. The swap spread reached as low as negative 10.19 basis points today before reaching negative 7.63 basis points. “Sovereign debt worries have replaced the banking crisis as the main worry for investors,” said Moorad Choudhry, an economics professor at London Metropolitan University and the author of “Structured Credit Products: Credit Derivatives and Synthetic Securitization.” “Even though the main focus isn’t U.S. sovereign debt worries, the U.S. budget deficit is an issue and it is going to be growing as the recently signed health-care bill will add to it.”
  • Debt-Burdened Dubai May Need Years to Rebuild Creditors' Trust. Dubai may be seeing light at the end of the tunnel after markets welcomed its offer to repay around $25 billion in debt by 2018. The recovery still risks taking years as the sheikhdom rebuilds creditors’ trust.
  • 'Green Fund' for Climate Change Proposed by IMF Staff. A “Green Fund” designed to help nations meet climate-change pledges would sell bonds in global markets and use the proceeds to help poor countries deal with the effects of global warming, International Monetary Fund staff proposed in a report. The report released today expands upon an idea mentioned by IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn earlier this month as a way to raise $100 billion a year by 2020. The plan offers a mechanism for rich nations to honor their agreement from last year’s Copenhagen climate summit to provide that amount of money to developing countries to confront drought, flooding, food shortages and disease exacerbated by global warming. Governments could inject reserve assets in the fund, including those disbursed by the IMF last year, it said. The IMF staff plan also calls for wealthy nations to provide separate subsidies to help finance grants, according to the report. Raising $1 trillion in bonds over 30 years would require an equity endowment of about $120 billion, the report said. On top of injecting assets in the Green Fund’s capital, rich countries would need to provide money from their budgets to finance grants. Anticipating it may be hard at first, the IMF report suggested the fund could run “deficits” initially. Countries that contributed to the capital could also forgo dividends temporarily. Another option is for the international community to seek an early agreement on carbon pricing and to dedicate a portion of the proceeds to the Green Fund.
  • FSA Insider Probe Said to Focus on Block Trade Front-Running. Britain’s financial regulator is examining whether some of the seven people arrested in an insider-trading probe engaged in the front-running of block trades, a person with direct knowledge of the case said.
  • China's Credit-Card Curbs Said to Be Weighed by U.S. Visa Inc.(V), American Express Co.(AXP) and MasterCard Inc.(MA) have talked with U.S. trade officials about taking action against China for shutting the companies out of its $723 billion payment-processing market, people briefed on the issue said. The U.S. Trade Representative’s Office has discussed a possible complaint at the World Trade Organization with lawyers for the three companies, as well as Discover Financial Services and First Data Corp., said the people, who declined to be identified because the U.S. hasn’t announced a complaint. The case highlights rising tensions between the world’s largest and third-biggest economies, adding to disputes ranging from currency policy to import duties to Internet censorship.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Personal Income Drops Across the Country. Personal income in 42 states fell in 2009, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Nevada's 4.8% plunge was the steepest, as construction and tourism industries took a beating. Also hit hard: Wyoming, where incomes fell 3.9%.
  • Juarez Violence Puts Factories on Defensive. U.S. companies flocked to the border city of Juárez because it was one of Mexico's most business-friendly cities. Now, an entire industry is adjusting to doing business in Mexico's deadliest town.
  • TV Chief Critical of Chavez Is Arrested. Intelligence agents arrested the president of Venezuela's only remaining independent television station on Thursday, leading to concerns that freedom of speech is ending in this oil-rich nation.
  • The Government Pay Boom. America's most privileged class are public union workers. It turns out there really is growing inequality in America. It's the 45% premium in pay and benefits that government workers receive over the poor saps who create wealth in the private economy. And the gap is growing. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), from 1998 to 2008 public employee compensation grew by 28.6%, compared with 19.3% for private workers. In the recession year of 2009, with almost no inflation and record budget deficits, more than half the states awarded pay raises to their employees. Even as deficits in state capitals widen and are forcing cuts in services, few politicians are willing to eliminate these pay inequities that enrich the few who wield political power.
BusinessWeek.com:
  • ICBC's $161 Billion Jump in Loans Drives Jiang to Boost Capital. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. Chairman Jiang Jianqing moved to bolster capital after expanding lending by $161 billion last year, almost equivalent to the gross domestic product of the Philippines. ICBC, the world’s largest bank by market value, will sell as much as 25 billion yuan ($3.7 billion) of convertible bonds and will seek shareholder approval to issue stock equivalent of up to 20 percent of equity capital in Hong Kong, according to a statement yesterday from the Beijing-based company. The fundraising plan comes even after ICBC defended its position as the world’s most profitable bank in 2009 and capital stayed above the regulatory minimum. Additional money will serve as a buffer should regulators further tighten capital rules. Citigroup Inc. economists said this week China may be on track for an “asset boom, bubble and bust.” “This is surprising given that ICBC is in a strong financial position to support its growth for the next few years,” said Sheng Nan, a Shanghai-based analyst at UOB-Kayhian Investment Co. “It may be preparing for a rainy day when the regulator imposes even tougher rules on capital.”
  • Closing for Business? Western companies are finding themselves shut out as Beijing promotes homegrown rivals. Not so long ago in China, Western business executives traveling to the provinces could expect a hearty welcome and a banquet with endless toasts of maotai liquor. In February, however, representatives of General Electric (GE) and a dozen other U.S. companies got a taste of the way commercial relations have been changing. They were in Wuhan, a city of 9 million on the Yangtze River, for a seminar on water-treatment technology organized by the U.S. embassy. At a dinner after the meeting they were supposed to have a chance to mingle with top local officials. But at the last minute, Wuhan's mayor canceled his keynote speech and backed out of the gathering. That same day the provincial party secretary and governor begged off a separate event for American Ambassador Jon M. Huntsman Jr. One attendee, who won't be quoted by name, speculates that the Wuhan officials were responding to direct orders from the central government in Beijing not to meet the Americans.
CNBC:
Fox News:
IBD:
  • Makeover Puts Cosmetics Superstores On Growth Path. Since late last year, Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance(ULTA) has been making its own contribution to the genre. In a series of TV spots, a makeup artist shows how to use Ulta's cosmetics to create a face for whatever mood you're in — flirty, sophisticated or punk.
NY Times:
  • S.E.C. Reviews Derivative Use by Some Funds. The Securities and Exchange Commission announced Thursday that it was reviewing the use of swaps and other derivatives by mutual funds, exchange-traded funds and other investment products that are often marketed to individual investors, Edward Wyatt of The New York Times reports.
  • Shelby Criticizes Reform Bill, Saying It Won't End 'Too Big to Fail' Problem. The Democratic bill to overhaul the nation’s financial system would not end the “too big to fail” phenomenon or adequately protect taxpayers from having to bail out large companies, a leading Republican senator said on Thursday.
Business Insider:
zerohedge:
L.A. Times:
  • Chinese Firm Buys Marriott in Downtown L.A. Shenzhen New World Group Co. buys the 469-room hotel out of foreclosure for an estimated $60 million, about half of what it sold for in 2007. Shenzhen plans to invest $13 million in upgrades.
Appaloosa Management:
Politico:
  • Eric Cantor: Republicans Threatened, Too. House Minority Whip Eric Cantor blamed top Democrats for “fanning the flames” regarding threats to members of Congress — and says his office in Richmond was shot at earlier this week. Cantor, a Virginia Republican, said the heads of the Democratic National Committee and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee are using allegations of harassment and threats to Democrats nationwide for political purposes. Cantor said he doesn’t release information about the incidents of threats against himself to the media because it would only ratchet up violence. But he did say a bullet shot through the window in his campaign office in Richmond on Monday evening, and he has received threats because he is Jewish.
Real Clear Politics:
  • Bond Markets Reflect the True Cost of Obamacare. Not many people noticed amid the Democrats' struggle to jam their health care bill through the House, but in recent weeks U.S. Treasury bonds have lost their status as the world's safest investment. The numbers are pretty clear. In February, Bloomberg News reports, Berkshire Hathaway sold two-year bonds with an interest rate lower than that on two-year Treasuries. A company run by a 79-year-old investor is a better credit risk, the markets are telling us, than the U.S. government.
AP:
  • North Korea Vows 'Nuclear Strikes' in Latest Threat. North Korea's military warned South Korea and the United States on Friday of "unprecedented nuclear strikes" over a report the two countries plan to prepare for possible instability in the totalitarian country. The North routinely issues such warnings and officials in Seoul and Washington react calmly. Diplomats in South Korea and the U.S. instead have repeatedly called on Pyongyang to return to international negotiations aimed at ending its nuclear programs. "Those who seek to bring down the system in the (North), whether they play a main role or a passive role, will fall victim to the unprecedented nuclear strikes of the invincible army," North Korea's military said in comments carried by the official Korean Central News Agency. The North, believed have enough weaponized plutonium for at least half a dozen atomic bombs, conducted its second atomic test last year, drawing tighter U.N. sanctions.
Reuters:
Financial Times:
  • A Euro Exit is the Only Way Out for Greece. Greece faces the threat of state bankruptcy. No longer is there any illusion that membership of Europe’s economic and monetary union provides protection from harsh realities. Since it entered the euro area in 2001, Greece has sacrificed competitiveness and amassed enormous trade deficits. Theoretically, to make up the economic ground lost in less than a decade, the Greeks would need to devalue by 40 per cent. But in a monetary union, that is impossible. There is no shortage of proposals to help the Greeks, including assistance from other eurozone governments – a move that would contravene the “no bail-out” rule enshrined in the treaty setting up monetary union. There is, sadly, only one way to escape this vicious circle. The Greeks will have to leave the euro, recreate the drachma and re-enter the still-existing exchange rate mechanism of the European Monetary System, the so-called ERM-II, which they departed in 2001.
  • Pressure Rises for Formal Bank Fees Inquiry. Political pressure for a formal inquiry into investment banking fees mounted on Thursday as Lord Myners, City minister, said there was clear evidence of restricted competition in the market. “Certain aspects of investment banking in equity underwriting exhibit features of a semi-oligopolistic market,” Lord Myners told the Financial Times. His comments come less than a week after the Office of Fair Trading revealed it was looking at the fees charged by investment banks to decide whether to launch a formal probe.
Telegraph:
Age:
  • China may resume a "managed float" of the yuan to allow the currency to gain modestly against the U.S. dollar, said Fan Gang, an adviser to the country's central bank, in an opinion piece published today. An abrupt revaluation would hurt the competitiveness of the nation's exporters, Fan Gang wrote.
China Securities Journal:
  • China's central bank may "soon" raise its reserve ratio requirement for the third time this year to further drain liquidity, citing analysts. The central bank may raise the ratio to stem excess cash driven by increased foreign direct investment, a growing trade surplus and speculation about a stronger yuan.
Asahi:
  • Toyota Motor Corp. will next month reduce its daily domestic production by 7% to 12,500 vehicles. The company expects sales to remain stagnant, the newspaper said.
Evening Recommendations
Citigroup:
  • Reiterated Buy on (AMZN), target $180.
  • Reiterated Buy on (QCOM), raised estimates, target $50.
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 97.0 +1.0 basis point.
  • S&P 500 futures +.08%
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.04%
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 AM EST
  • Final 4Q GDP is estimated to rise +5.9% versus a prior estimate of a +5.9% gain.
  • Final 4Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +1.7% versus a prior estimate of a +1.7% gain.
  • Final 4Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +.4% versus a prior estimate of a +.4% gain.
  • Final 4Q Core PCE is estimated to rise +1.6% versus a prior estimate of a +1.6% increase.
9:55 AM EST
  • Final March Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence is estimated to rise to 73.0 versus a prior estimate of 72.5.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The EU Summit, Fed's Warsh speaking, Fed's Bullard speaking, ECB's Papademos speaking, Fed's Tarullo speaking, (EAT) analyst meeting and the (HS) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and automaker shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Stocks Reversing into Final Hour on Profit-Taking, Euro Worries, China Bubble/Trade Fears


Broad Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 17.61 +.34%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 -25.81%
  • Total Put/Call .82 -10.87%
  • NYSE Arms .95 +40.02%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 86.27 bps -1.30%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 78.33 bps +8.70%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 75.32 bps -.12%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 228.27 bps +1.11%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 12.0 bps +1.0 bp
  • TED Spread 16.0 +1.0 bp
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .13% unch.
  • Yield Curve 279.0 bps +6 bps
  • Copper Days Demand n/a
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index +40.80 +.1 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26% +1 bp
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +92 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -8 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my Retail, Financial, Tech long positions and Commodity short positions
  • Disclosed Trades: Added (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges, added to my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is mildly bearish as stocks move to session lows with some sectors seeing notable weakness. On the positive side, Retail, REIT, Internet and Software stocks are especially strong, rising +1.0%+. The euro continues to trade very poorly and is weighing on commodity stocks. I suspect oil, which has mostly ignored euro weakness, will trade lower over the coming days as large speculators cut their recently increased long exposure to the commodity. On the negative side, Disk Drive, Computer, Steel, Oil Service, Energy, Oil Tanker, Coal and Paper shares are under meaningful pressure, falling more than 1%. Gauges of investor angst are relatively muted again today. The euro financial sector cds is seeing a meaningful surge today, which is always a large negative. The Shanghai Composite fell -1.23% last night despite gains in most of the rest of Asia and is very close to another technical breakdown. Given recent stock gains and developing headwinds, I wouldn't be surprised to see short-term traders continue to take profits to protect performance into quarter-end. I expect US stocks to trade modestly lower into the close from current levels on profit-taking, euro worries, rising long-term rates, tax hike fears, technical selling and China bubble/trade concerns.

Today's Headlines


Bloomberg:

  • U.S. Bank Plans Don't Tackle Cause of Crisis, RBC's Nixon Says. The U.S. government’s proposed rules to rein in banks by limiting proprietary trading and investments in hedge funds don’t address the cause of the global financial crisis, Royal Bank of Canada Chief Executive Officer Gordon Nixon said. “It doesn’t do a lot in terms of reducing systemic risks,” Nixon said in an interview yesterday at Bloomberg’s New York headquarters. “Most of the institutions that actually went under weren’t even in the proprietary trading or hedge fund business.” "The business will move; it will either move into unregulated entities, or move geographically into other markets,” Nixon said. “A much better approach to proprietary trading is to ensure that you’ve got the appropriate amount of capital allocated against those risks that are being taken.” If it’s done properly, Nixon said, people will take less risks because it’s too expensive. A series of banking rules and reforms from several jurisdictions are getting “too complicated” and will hamper banks’ abilities to lend, Nixon also said. “You’ve got this jurisdictional battle going on,” said Nixon, who was in New York to accept an award from the research firm Catalyst for diversity. “You have a set of potential rules which are way more complicated than they have to be or should be.” Nixon called instead for simplicity. “Focus on the key drivers of what created the systemic risk, which is built around ensuring effective capitalization levels and ensuring there is not excessive leverage in the system.”
  • Ambac Subprime Contracts Taken By Wisconsin Regulator. Ambac Financial Group Inc. will hand control of subprime mortgage-related contracts to a regulator amid concern the second-largest bond insurer’s collapse would trigger losses for municipal noteholders. Ambac Assurance Corp., which guarantees $696 billion of debt payments, will set up a segregated account for insurance contracts linked to credit-default swaps, residential mortgage- backed securities and other structured finance transactions, the parent company said in a statement. The Wisconsin Office of the Commissioner of Insurance ordered the handover to “protect policyholders, including investors in thousands of state and local municipal bond issues,” according to a separate statement. “While there’s clearly significant uncertainty, the potential outcome of these actions for Ambac Assurance is positive in that it may emerge stronger and without the threat of rehabilitation hanging over it,” said Michael Cox, a structured-finance strategist at Chalkhill Partners LLP in London.
  • Copper, Gold Trading Limits Weighed by U.S. Commodity Regulator. U.S. regulators are considering limits on how much of the market for metals including gold and copper that speculators can control after last year’s financial crisis spurred record swings in prices. Hedge funds and other large speculators are “contorting” the market, according to Bart Chilton, one of five members of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which will hear the views of analysts, investors and exchange officials at a public meeting today in Washington. Position limits “will force speculators to exit these markets, thereby reducing their dominance and eliminating the possibility of speculative price bubbles,” said Michael Masters, the founder of Masters Capital Management, who is scheduled to testify at today’s meeting. “Passive speculators are an invasive species that will continue to damage the markets until they are eradicated,” said Masters, whose fund is based in St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands. “When passive speculators are eliminated from the markets, then most consumable commodities derivatives markets will no longer be excessively speculative, and their intended functions will be restored.”
  • Zinc imports by China, the world's largest consumer, may slump almost 60% this year as domestic production increases, said a CBI China Co. analyst. China ramped up production of metals and boosted imports to records last year as the government's stimulus plan spurred construction and automobile sales. Zinc is used to galvanize steel. Smelters have restarted plants as prices gained 61% in the past year in Shanghai, boosting inventories. "High metal stocks seem to have little impact on prices," said Huw Roberts, an analyst at CHR Metals Ltd., in Shenzhen today. Zinc stockpiles in China have increased to more than double the amount stored in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange after output jumped, according to CBI China. Inventories in commercial warehouses in Shanghai and Guangdong increased to about 460,000 tons in the middle of this month from 380,000 tons at the end of 2009, CBI has said. Ouput of zinc increased 48% to 739,000 tons in the first two months and copper gained 16% to 702,000 tons, government figures show. Production may increase to 5.18 million tons this year from 4.36 million tons in 2009, CBI's Gao said.
  • China's supply of nickel in pig iron may increase 30% this year, capping gains in prices of the refined metal in London, an executive from Shanghai Tsingshan Mineral Co. said.
  • Goldman Sachs(GS) Quits Losing Bet on Euro-Dollar Advance. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. exited a bet the euro would climb against the dollar after the trade lost 2.8 percent amid concern the European Union is unable to agree on an aid plan for Greece, undermining the common currency. “We have clearly underestimated the impact on the euro from the European sovereign crisis and perhaps also from the broader macro adjustment that it portends,” five analysts including Thomas Stolper, London-based economist at Goldman Sachs, wrote in an e-mail to Bloomberg today. “These political headwinds currently matter far more for the euro than the cyclical factors.”
  • Best Buy(BBY) Surges as Profit Tops Analyst's Estimates on TVs. Best Buy Co. climbed the most in almost 10 months in New York trading after fourth-quarter profit and its full-year earnings forecast exceeded analysts’ estimates. Earnings rose to $1.82 in the quarter ended Feb. 27, the Richfield, Minnesota-based retailer said today in a statement. Analysts projected $1.79, the average of estimates compiled by Bloomberg. U.S. same-store sales advanced 7.4 percent after Best Buy cut prices of flat-panel TVs before the National Football League’s Super Bowl championship game on Feb. 7 and offered discounts during the holidays. Sales at international stores open at least 14 months increased 5.5 percent, topping some analysts’ estimates.
  • Qualcomm(QCOM) Jumps Most Since 2008 After Forecast Boost. Qualcomm Inc., the world’s biggest maker of mobile-phone chips, climbed the most in more than a year in Nasdaq Stock Market trading after boosting its second- quarter profit and sales forecasts. Profit, excluding some items, will be 56 cents to 58 cents a share in the period ending this month, compared with an earlier target of as much as 53 cents, Qualcomm said today. Analysts in a Bloomberg survey projected 52 cents on average.
  • Obama Tax's $14 Billion Charge Starts at Caterpillar(CAT). Caterpillar Inc. lobbied to keep the U.S. from taxing a subsidy on retiree drug benefits. It lost the battle when President Barack Obama signed an almost $1 trillion health-care overhaul into law this week. The world’s largest maker of bulldozers put a price tag on that defeat yesterday: a $100 million charge to earnings. Disclosures by Caterpillar and AK Steel Holding Corp.(AKS) in the two days since the signing are the first sets of health-care charges that ultimately may shave as much as $14 billion from U.S. corporate profits, according to an estimate by benefits consultancy Towers Watson.
  • Bin Laden Threatens Deaths If Mohammed Is Executed. Al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden warned that more Americans would be killed if the self- proclaimed mastermind behind the Sept. 11 attacks is executed, according to an audio tape aired by al-Jazeera. “The day America will take such a decision it will have taken a decision to execute whomever we capture,” Bin Laden said on the audio tape. Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and four accused conspirators are to go on trial in the U.S. and the government intends to seek the death penalty. In the recording, the al-Qaeda leader also warned President Barack Obama of further attacks on U.S. soil if the Palestinian “situation” isn’t resolved.
  • U.S. Treasury Said to Have Plan for Citigroup(C) Shares. The U.S. Treasury intends to unload its 27 percent stake in bailed-out bank Citigroup Inc. using a preset trading plan that will lock the government into a schedule for selling its shares, people with direct knowledge of the matter said.
  • Natural Gas Falls Below $4 as Supplies Gain More Than Forecast. Natural gas fell below $4 per million British thermal units for the first time in almost six months as a government report showed that U.S. inventories of the power-plant fuel rose more than analysts anticipated. Inventories gained 11 billion cubic feet in the week ended March 19 to 1.626 trillion cubic feet, the Energy Department said today. Analysts forecast an increase of 8 billion. The five-year average change is a decline of 37 billion. “Everything is working against gas,” said Tom Orr, research director at Weeden & Co., a brokerage in Greenwich, Connecticut. “There are no fundamental catalysts that will happen now for at least a couple of months.”

Wall Street Journal:
  • U.S. Softens Sanction Plan Against Iran. The U.S. has backed away from pursuing a number of tough measures against Iran in order to win support from Russia and China for a new United Nations Security Council resolution on sanctions, according to people familiar with the matter. Among provisions removed from the original draft resolution the U.S. sent to key allies last month were sanctions aimed at choking off Tehran's access to international banking services and capital markets, and closing international airspace and waters to Iran's national air cargo and shipping lines, according to the people.
  • SEC Scrutinizes Bets Made by Hedge Funds. Federal regulators are probing bets made against stocks before new offerings, in inquiries focused on hedge funds including Appaloosa Management LP and Carlson Capital LP. Appaloosa, a $13 billion New Jersey firm run by David Tepper, has been scrutinized by the Securities and Exchange Commission over trades it made around the time Wells Fargo & Co. agreed to acquire Wachovia Corp. in 2008.
  • Higher Prices Make Box-Office Debut. Major U.S. movie-theater chains, seeking to capitalize on the surge in revenues fueled by such 3-D hits as "Avatar" and "Alice in Wonderland," are imposing some of the steepest increases in ticket prices in at least a decade. The new prices take effect Friday in many markets across the country in theaters owned by such major exhibitors as Regal Entertainment Group, Cinemark Holdings Inc. and AMC Entertainment Inc. The increases, in one case as much as 26%, vary from theater to theater, but many cinemas are raising prices most—or even solely—for 3-D showings.
  • Mossberg's Most Wanted Questions on iPad.
BusinessWeek:
  • RBS Default Swaps Rise on Speculation of Debt Restructuring. Credit-default swaps linked to Royal Bank Of Scotland Group Plc rose amid speculation the U.K. state-controlled lender plans to restructure as much as 15 billion pounds ($22 billion) of subordinated debt. The cost of insuring RBS’s senior bonds against a default climbed 10 basis points to 152, the highest level in almost a month, according CMA DataVision in London.
CNBC:
  • King Dollar Is a Game Changer. The biggest story out there right now has got to be the re-emergence of King Dollar. This could be a major game changer for both Wall Street and Washington. All the dollar bears from the beginning of this year, and all the gold bulls, have been completely and utterly wrong.
  • Deere(DE) Projects $150 Million Hit From Health Care Reform. Farm equipment maker Deere expects after-tax expenses to rise by $150 million this year as a result of the health care reform law President Barack Obama signed this week.
  • Treasury Will Soon Have to Pay More to Finance Growing Debt. The US government could soon have to reward investors more handsomely for helping to finance its debt.Treasury auctions this week served notice that the market is beginning to reach a saturation point as hundreds of billions flow in every couple of weeks.
NY Times:
  • Social Security to See Payout Exceed Pay-In This Year. The bursting of the real estate bubble and the ensuing recession have hurt jobs, home prices and now Social Security. This year, the system will pay out more in benefits than it receives in payroll taxes, an important threshold it was not expected to cross until at least 2016, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Stephen C. Goss, chief actuary of the Social Security Administration, said that while the Congressional projection would probably be borne out, the change would have no effect on benefits in 2010 and retirees would keep receiving their checks as usual. The problem, he said, is that payments have risen more than expected during the downturn, because jobs disappeared and people applied for benefits sooner than they had planned. At the same time, the program’s revenue has fallen sharply, because there are fewer paychecks to tax.
Business Insider:
Sermo:
Institutional Investor:
  • Andrew Cuomo's Subprime Skeletons. In June 2000, near the end of his four-year tenure as U.S. secretary for the Department of Housing and Urban Development during the Clinton administration, Cuomo warned in a prescient 119-page report that demand for mortgage-backed securities was driving Wall Street into the risky business of subprime lending. He cautioned that unscrupulous lenders were doling out loans without proof of borrowers’ ability to repay. And he recommended making mortgage transactions more transparent, prohibiting practices that injure consumers, restricting abusive transactions and issuing more prime loans. Yet according to experts on housing policy, Cuomo was one of many politicians in Washington in the late 1990s who inadvertently helped plant the seeds of the subprime mortgage implosion by easing terms on federally insured home loans. They were trying to do the right thing — fight home-lending practices that discriminated against ethnic minorities — but some point to dire consequences.
Washington Post:
The Detroit News:
Detroit Free Press:
Las Vegas Sun:
  • State Retirement Fund Fires Goldman Sachs(GS), Other Fund Manager. The Nevada Public Employees Retirement System today fired Goldman Sachs and Quantitative Management Associates as portfolio managers. Goldman Sachs managed $600 million and Quantitative Management handled $500 million of the system's $22.5 billion in holdings. Calling it a "very rare" occurrence, System Investment Officer Ken Lambert said the firings were due to under performance in return on investment. Thirty firms have been fired in the last 30 years by the board, Lambert said. The $1.1 billion will be temporarily managed by Mellon Capital until the board decides next month who should manage the investment, said Lambert.
StreetInsider.com:
Rasmussen Reports:
  • 55% Favor Repeal of Health Care Bill. Just before the House of Representatives passed sweeping health care legislation last Sunday, 41% of voters nationwide favored the legislationwhile 54% were opposed. Now that President Obama has signed the legislation into law, most voters want to see it repealed. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey, conducted on the first two nights after the president signed the bill, shows that 55% favor repealing the legislation. Forty-two percent (42%) oppose repeal.
Politico:
Reuters:
  • S&P to Review Status of Five Dubai Govt Firms. Standard & Poor's will reassess the credit ratings status of five Dubai government-linked firms following an "extremely positive" debt proposal for the emirate's flagship Dubai World conglomerate. The ratings agency downgraded six Dubai government-related companies in December shortly after Dubai World said it needed to delay repayment on about $26 billion of debts. S&P had warned it might downgrade the companies again. Dubai's government said on Thursday it would inject $9.5 billion and recapitalise debt-laden Dubai World and fully repay bonds for its Nakheel property unit when they fell due. "It is extremely positive news," Farouk Soussa, head of Middle East government ratings at S&P, told Reuters.
  • U.S. Serious Mortgage Delinquencies Jump in Q4.
  • Ford(F) Sees More Gains in U.S. Market Share in March.
Financial Times:
  • Censorship Fears Grow as IBM(IBM) Tool Bolsters Chinese Spam Curb. IBM has developed a system for the detection and analysis of spam text messages for China Mobile that would help the world's largest mobile operator track social networking groups and their messaging habits. The initiative comes in response to a large-scale government campaign to root out SMS spam and increase monitoring of text messaging flows. Although IBM said the tool's purpose is to fight spam, analysts expressed concerns that its design could also make it yet another instrument for censorship.
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung:
  • The financial crisis in the shipping business is likely to continue for two to three years, citing Ralf Nagel, head of the German shipping companies association. As many as 1,000 German ship owners out of 3,500 may face liquidity problems, Nagel said.