Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Russia’s Aggression Challenges Obama’s Foreign Policy. U.S. President Barack Obama’s plans to forge a foreign policy for a globalized 21st Century have collided in Ukraine with what Secretary of State John Kerry has called 19th-century behavior. The “bitter divides of the Cold War have been replaced by unity, partnership and peace,” said then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, outlining that 21st-century vision in a speech in Paris in 2010, a year after the administration sought to “reset” relations with Russia. “Russia is no longer our adversary, but often a partner.” In the last month, Obama and Clinton’s vision has been disrupted by Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its troop buildup along the Ukrainian border. Europe’s new -- or renewed -- instability reveals longstanding weaknesses in the president’s vision of a partnership with Russia and global cooperation with the European Union and NATO democracies as far afield as Libya, Syria and Afghanistan, analysts, former government officials and diplomats say. “The Obama vision for European security was hinged on a couple of factors, all of which are now out the window,” said Samuel Charap, a senior fellow at the Washington office of the Institute of International Security Studies, a London-based policy group. 

• Europe Stocks Rise for a Second Day as Carmakers Advance. European stocks rose for a second day, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index posting its biggest two-day gain in three weeks, as auto companies climbed. PSA Peugeot Citroen increased 2.8 percent, leading a gauge of auto-related stocks higher, as La Tribune newspaper reported the carmaker got more than 120,000 orders in a year for its 2008 crossover model. Standard Life Plc jumped 7 percent after saying a unit is buying Ignis Asset Management Ltd. from Phoenix Group Holdings. Lloyds Banking Group Plc slid the most since May 2012 as the U.K. government sold a stake in the lender. The Stoxx 600 added 0.7 percent to 330.93 at the close of trading.

• WTI Crude Advances as Cushing Inventories Decline. WTI for May delivery gained 64 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $99.83 a barrel at 1:05 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The volume was 16 percent below the 100-day average for the time of day. The price was $100.08 before the EIA report.

• Obamacare Spurs Merck, Glaxo to End Co-Pay Aid; Boost to Middle Class a Kickback? Abandoning a long-held industry tradition, GlaxoSmithKline Plc and Merck & Co. won’t help low-income Obamacare patients pay for their high-priced drugs. The drugmakers say they won’t provide the assistance until the government decides whether programs overseen by the U.S. health-care act are subject to federal laws banning kickbacks that steer business to companies. So far, U.S. agencies have sent mixed messages on the issue, industry officials said. 

• GM(GM) Down 14% Shows Barra Challenges From Recalls to China. Less than three months into her tenure as General Motors Co. chief executive officer, Mary Barra has more than recalls to worry about.

• Dish’s(DISH) Ergen Said to Approach DirecTV CEO White About Merger. Dish Network Corp. Chairman Charlie Ergen recently contacted DirecTV Chief Executive Officer Mike White to discuss a merger of the two satellite television companies, according to several people with knowledge of the matter. Shares of both companies rose.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Debris Field 'Most Credible Lead' in Malaysia Airlines Plane Search. Satellite Images Appear to Show 122 Objects in Area Where Search Is Under Way.

• China's Economy Under Mounting Stress.

Fox News:

• China waging ‘Three Warfares’ against United States in Asia, Pentagon says. China is waging political warfare against the United States as part of a strategy to drive the U.S. military out of Asia and control seas near its coasts, according to a Pentagon-sponsored study.

MarketWatch:

• A case of mistaken identity sends another Oculus soaring. Investors jumped on the news that Facebook Inc. is buying Oculus VR Inc. Problem is, they jumped to the wrong Oculus. Oculus VR makes virtual-reality glasses. Its virtual-reality headset is called Oculus Rift. Facebook FB -6.13% announced late Tuesday that it would buy the whole shebang for $2 billion. Oculus VisionTech Inc., OVTZ despite the similar nomenclature, is unrelated. It is involved with watermarking digital media, like videos, to protect against piracy. But a lot of people, apparently, didn’t know that, because its stock more than doubled on Wednesday morning.

• Dr. Copper is waving a red flag.

• Facebook(FB) makes risky bets to stay relevant. Opinion: Investors may start to worry about big-spending ways.

• The bill for home-equity lines is coming due. Borrowers might get a ‘payment shock’; regulators warn banks of a brewing problem. 

CNBC:

• JPM, AQR win as hedge funds suck in assets. The fat funds are getting fatter—the largest hedge funds now control more cash than ever before. Americas-based firms that each invest at least $1 billion managed a record high of $1.71 trillion as of Jan. 1, according to a report by hedge fund data and news service Absolute Return.

ZeroHedge:

• The Real Inflation Fear - US Food Prices Are Up 19% In 2014. (graph)

• Two Years Later, Larry Fink Confirms Zero Hedge Was Right.

• Will The Backlash Against Facebook Be The Doom Of Its Acquisition Spree?

• The Anatomy Of Panic: How A Rumor Mutated Into A Three-Day Chinese Bank Run.

• The "Recovery" Is Said To Be Hiding Somewhere In These Non-Recovering Charts. (graph)

• Candy Crushed - IPO Drops 15%.

• Dear Ukrainians, Your Gas Bill Goes Up By 50% On May 1, Have A Nice Day.

Business Insider: 

• Boehner Blasts Obamacare Delay: 'What The Hell Is This? A Joke?'.

• This Dramatic Chart Shows How Many People Have Lost Faith In Obama's Foreign Policy.

• 5 Things That Could Go Wrong For Markets In The Coming Weeks.

• China Is Attacking Alibaba And The Rest Of Its Trillion Dollar Mobile Payments Industry.

• 3 Secret Service Agents Sent Home From Netherlands After Drunken Escapade.

Washington Times:

• IRS: It will take ‘years’ to produce tea party targeting emails. IRS Commissioner John Koskinen said Wednesday that he won’t be able to produce all of former employee Lois G. Lerner’s emails and those of other key employees by the end of this year, pushing it beyond this year’s congressional elections.

@Interpreter_Mag:

• Ukraine Liveblog: Ukraine Defence Ministry calls reports of Russian troop movements "worrying".

• "400 troops in BMP/BTR vehicles & 10 tanks" less than 10km from Ukr border. 1,100 troops 120 vehicles 25 Hinds near Belgorod.

• More reports of Elite Russian armor divisions on the move, as well as attack helicopters.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.65%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -2.84% 2) Gold & Silver -2.46% 3) Gaming -1.90%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• BFAM, INSM, VEEV, FRAN, REX, SILC, SZYM, PNRA, IGT, SHLO, BOFI, BYI, PACW, LGF, AGN, GOMO, CAMP, CMGE, USG, EQT, DEO, XOOM, ESS, RLYP, WDAY, NMBL, CSOD and ECYT

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CYH 2) TWC 3) AKS 4) IGT 5) IBM
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) LUV 2) TWTR 3) FRAN 4) PNRA 5) WLT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.15%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Hospitals +3.38% 2) Medical Equipment +.75% 3) Drugs +.59%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• FIVE, PVH, SCS, LH, YOKU, DGX, KERX, HDS, AOL, THC and VNDA

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) KERX 2) DGX 3) USG 4) SYNA 5) EXEL

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) FIVE 2) MA 3) CVS 4) WAG 5) TSLA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:  

• Obama Deflecting Criticism Calls Russia a Regional Power. President Barack Obama brushed aside his critics who say he’s been weak in foreign affairs and dismissed Vladimir Putin’s Russia as merely a regional threat as he set the stage for the next moves in the confrontation over Ukraine. Seeking to assure U.S. allies in Europe as well as voters at home, Obama told a gathering of world leaders in The Hague that an international coalition is moving to isolate a nation that no longer rates as a superpower. “Russia is a regional power that is threatening some of its immediate neighbors, not out of strength, but out of weakness.”   

• Senate Reaches Deal on Ukraine Aid Omitting IMF Provision. U.S. senators reached agreement on legislation to aid Ukraine after Majority Leader Harry Reid abandoned a provision opposed by Republicans that would have boosted the International Monetary Fund. The deal sets up a March 27 vote on final passage, Reid said on the Senate floor tonight. The Nevada Democrat told reporters earlier today that he would drop language boosting the U.S. share, or quota, for the IMF and implementing a 2010 international accord giving rising economies more voice.

• Japan’s Diet a WWII Debate Club as Nationalism Clouds Abenomics. As Japan girds for a wallop to spending from a looming sales-tax increase, discussion in the nation’s parliament turns to history -- not to 1997, when the last bump in the levy helped trigger a recession, but to 1937. 

• RBA Says Low-Rate Led Home Price Gains Can't Go On Indefinitely. The Reserve Bank of Australia said an upswing in property prices fueled by record-low interest rates can’t go on forever and lenders should avoid relaxing standards to boost profits. “While rising housing prices and greater household borrowing are expected results from the monetary easing that has taken place and are helping to support residential building activity, they also have the potential to encourage speculative activity,” the RBA said in its semiannual financial stability review in Sydney. “It is important for both investors and owner-occupiers to understand that a cyclical upswing in housing prices when interest rates are low cannot continue indefinitely.”

• Asian Stocks Rise as U.S. Consumer Confidence Jumps. Asian stocks rose after U.S. consumer confidence climbed to a six-year high, buoying investor optimism about the outlook for the world’s biggest economy. Samsung Electronics Co., a consumer electronics maker that gets a fifth of its revenue in America, rose 1.4 percent in Tokyo. Iron-ore miner Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. gained 3.1 percent in Sydney as raw-material shares climbed the most among the 10 industry groups on the regional benchmark index. Kirin Holdings Co. advanced 2.8 percent on a report the Japanese beverage maker will raise its annual dividend to at least 40 yen and consider a share buyback. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.6 percent to 135.10 as of 9:28 a.m. in Tokyo, with almost four shares rising for each that fell.

• Copper Falls From 2-Week High on Concern Chinese Growth Slows. Copper dropped from a two-week high amid concern that economic growth is slowing and default risks are rising in the biggest-user China at a time when global supplies are increasing. The contract for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange retreated as much as 0.7 percent to $6,554.25 a metric ton and was at $6,574 at 10:41 a.m. in Tokyo. The metal rallied 2.3 percent yesterday, the most since Feb. 6, to $6,623.75, the highest intraday level since March 11. China is headed for a “mini crisis” in its local-government debt market as economic reforms lead to defaults, Li Daokui, a former member of the People’s Bank of China’s monetary policy committee, said yesterday.

• Iron Ore Price Forecast Cut by Australia as Miners Boost Output. Australia, the largest iron ore exporter, cut its price estimate for this year and predicted a further drop in 2015 as mining companies including Rio Tinto (RIO) Group and BHP Billiton Ltd. increase output and spur a glut. Spot prices will average about $110 a ton this year from $119 forecast in December and $126 in 2013, the Canberra-based Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics said today. Prices may average about $103 a ton in 2015, it said in a report. Iron ore fell into a bear market this month on speculation that slowing economic growth and credit concerns in China, the biggest buyer, may curb the expansion in demand just as global supply increases.

• Junk-Loan ETF Asset Surge Heralds Higher Rates: Credit Markets. Investors just can't get enough of exchange-traded funds that buy junk-rated loans. After a more than tripling their assets in 2013, the loan funds are now growing four times as fast as the rest of the $262 billion market for fixed-income ETFs, according to data complied by Bloomberg. The biggest leveraged-loan ETF, Invesco Ltd.'s $7.4 billion PowerShares Senior Loan Portfolio, has already amassed almost a billion dollars in new money this year. While the demand has been a boon for ETFs that invest in loans to the neediest companies, it's also prompted regulators to warn that excesses which contributed to the credit crisis bay be creeping back.

• Tudor to Return Money From Managed-Futures Fund Amid Loss. Tudor Investment Corp. is returning money to clients from its $120 million managed-futures fund run by Steve Evans after three years of losses. Investors in the Tudor Tensor Fund can put their money into a managed account that follows the same strategy, the firm said today in a letter to clients, a copy of which was obtained by Bloomberg News. Investors can get their money at the end of the month or the end of April, Tudor said.

• Obamacare Insurer WellPoint Sees Double-Digit Rate Rise in 2015. Two months before health insurers must submit rate proposals for 2015 to government regulators, WellPoint Inc. (WLP:US) fired a surprising shot across their bow by predicting it may ask for “double-digit plus” increases.

Wall Street Journal:

• Did Regulator Drop the Ball in GM Recall? Traffic Safety Administration Had Several Chances to Link Ignition Switch Failures to Crashes.

• Spain Court Voids Catalonia's Parliamentary Resolution. Leaders Vow to Hold Nonbinding Independence Vote.

• Trading Winds Blow Cold for Some Hot Stocks. 'Momentum' Shares Sell Off; Tesla and Twitter Lose Investor Favor.

• Putin's Challenge to the West. Russia has thrown down a gauntlet that is not limited to Crimea or even Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has a long-festering grudge: He deeply resents the West for winning the Cold War. He blames the United States in particular for the collapse of his beloved Soviet Union, an event he has called the "worst geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century."

Fox News:

• North Korea fires two mid-range missiles, Seoul says. North Korea on Wednesday test-fired two medium-range ballistic missiles, South Korea said, a defiant challenge to a meeting by the leaders of rivals South Korea, Japan and the United States that focused on the North's security threat.

CNBC:

• Stocks have become ‘absurd’: Bill Fleckenstein. (video)

• Facebook(FB) buying virtual reality firm Oculus for $2 billion. (video)

Zero Hedge:

• A List Of 97 Taxes Americans Pay Every Year.

• The US Is Now Spending 26% Of Available Tax Revenue To Pay Interest.

• The Three Stooges Debunk myRA.

• Jeremy Grantham: The Fed Is Killing The Recovery.

• VIX Slam Fails But Blue Chips Pop As High-Beta Drops. (graph)

• Ukraine Only Has Enough Gasoline For A Month.

• BofA Warns A Complete Bear Flattening In Treasuries Would Be Devastating.

• China's Yuan Drops Most In A Week As Property Developers Tumble. (graph)

Business Insider:

• GENERAL: Deep Budget Cuts Mean The Army Can No Longer Execute US Defense Strategy.

Reuters:

• IGT(IGT) cuts 7 pct of jobs, lowers 2014 profit forecast. Slot-machine maker International Game Technology said it would cut 7 percent of its workforce and lowered its adjusted earnings forecast for the year, citing a steeper-than-expected fall in gaming revenue in North America.

Telegraph:

• Brazil at risk of recession as S&P downgrades debt to near junk. Rating agency cuts Brazil’s debt one notch to BBB-, citing “fiscal slippage”, bad economic management, and one-off tricks that flattered the public accounts.

China Securities Journal:

• China Short-Term Stimulus Unneeded, Academic Says. China shouldn't pursue short-term economic stimulus as growth is still in a "reasonable range," Chen Zhongtao, a researcher at China Logistics Information Center wrote.

Evening Recommendations

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 131.0 -3.0 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 94.0 -1.25 basis points.

• FTSE-100 futures +.38%.

• S&P 500 futures +.12%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures  +.12%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (MOV)/.30

• (PAYX)/.32

• (FUL)/.50

• (CUB)/.39

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Durable Goods Orders for February are estimated to rise +.8% versus a -1.0% decline in January.

• Durables Ex Transports for February are estimated to rise +.3% versus a +1.1% gain in January.

• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex Air for February are estimated to rise +.5% versus a +1.7% gain in January.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +2,815,000 barrels versus a +5,850,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,129,000 barrels versus a -1,467,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate supplies are estimated to fall by -1,168,000 barrels versus a -3,097,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.47% versus a -.4% decline the prior week.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bullard speaking, German Consumer Confidence reading, $35B 5Y T-Note auction, Fed CCAR Results for Banks, weekly MBA mortgage applications report, (CAB) analyst day, (IRM) investor day and (FLS) analyst day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by tech and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Less Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Yen Weakness, Short-Covering, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.44 -4.31%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.50 -.09%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.84 -.45%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.22 -2.34%

• ISE Sentiment Index 98.0 +15.29%

• Total Put/Call .73 -26.26%

• NYSE Arms .87 -21.95% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.49 -.44%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 100.90 +.07%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 46.16 -2.50%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 94.95 -.21%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 299.82 -4.10%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 375.0 -1.29%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 14.0 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 19.0 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.25 -.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% unch.

• Yield Curve 231.0 +2.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $111.80/Metric Tonne +1.18%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -31.70 +2.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.10 -2.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.15 -1.0 basis point

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -37 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +39 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/tech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:  

• Ukraine Seeks to Wrap Up IMF Talks as Crisis Hits Economy. Ukraine is completing bailout talks with the International Monetary Fund to avert a default and curb damage to the economy from a four-month political crisis. Loan negotiations began three weeks ago. To speed up the process, Ukrainian Premier Arseniy Yatsenyuk canceled a trip to The Hague, where world leaders are discussing the standoff with Russia over his country. The IMF will announce the results of its mission tomorrow, with Ukraine seeking as much as $20 billion, Finance Minister Oleksandr Shlapak said today in Kiev. 
• China Faces ‘Mini Crisis’ on Debt Defaults, Ex-PBOC Adviser Says. China is headed for a “mini crisis” in its local-government debt market as economic reforms lead to the first defaults, according to a former adviser to the People’s Bank of China. “It will be a partial, controllable and mini crisis,” Li Daokui told reporters on the sideline of the Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong today.
• German Confidence Falls. German business confidence fell for the first time in five months as companies assess the risks to trade from escalating European Union sanctions against Russia. The Ifo institute’s business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, fell to 110.7 in March after reaching 111.3 the prior month, the highest level since July 2011. Economists predicted a decline to 110.9, according to the median of 44 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. 
• European Stocks Rebound Before U.S. Consumer, House Data. European stocks rose the most in three weeks as better-than-forecast U.S. consumer-confidence and housing data signaled the world’s largest economy has rebounded from the harsh winter. EasyJet Plc gained 3.7 percent after forecasting that its loss may narrow in the six months through March. Luxottica Group SpA advanced 4 percent after saying it will design spectacles that use Google Inc.’s Glass technology. Baloise Holding AG (BALN) climbed 2.9 percent after the Swiss insurer unexpectedly increased its dividend. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 1.3 percent to 328.57 at the close in London after yesterday falling the most in two weeks.

Fox News:

• Open the floodgates? Indiana becomes first state to scrap Common Core. Indiana has become the first of 45 states to opt out of the national education standard known as Common Core, and critics of the controversial K-12 program say the move could "open the floodgates" for others to follow.

CNBC:

• Out of Gas: Most Americans Can't Afford New Cars.
• Is the IPO market in a bubble?

ZeroHedge:

• Russia Prepares Mega-Deal With India After Locking Up China With "Holy Grail" Gas Deal.
• Fed Finds TBTF Banks Increase Systemic Risk, Have A Funding Advantage.
• Case Shiller Home Price Index Declines For Third Month A Row: Longest Negative Stretch Since March 2012. (graph)
• Consumer Confidence Jumps To 6-Year High (Led By Surge In Hope). (graph)
• New Home Sales Drop To Lowest Since October, Median Home Price Below Year Ago Levels. (graph)
• 5 Reasons Why Chinese "Stimulus" Hopes Are Overdone. (graph)
• What A Bank Run In China Looks Like: Hundreds Rush To Banks Following Solvency Rumors.
• IRS Rules Bitcoin Is Property (Not Currency).

ValueWalk:

• Falling Profits Is Best Leading Indicator For Recession: Edwards.

Business Insider:

• Everyone Is Saying This Is The Worst Tech IPO Of The Boom So Far.
• Obama Is Trying To Kill The Tomahawk And Hellfire Missile Programs.
• The Good, The Indifferent, And The Ugly Emerging-Market Currencies.
• Retired Ukrainian General: Russia Is 'Placing Europe On The Verge Of A Third World War'.
• HUGE DISAPPOINTMENT FROM THE RICHMOND FED. (graph)
• REPORT: GM(GM) Misled Grieving Families About Lethal Glitch.

CNN:

• Why Obama is losing millennials.

PxFeed Top News:

• BREAKING NEWS: Russia adds 10,000 troops, air defense artillery, wheeled vehicles to positions near Ukraine eastern border. Via CNN.

BusinessCloudNews:

• Google(GOOG) touts updates and price cuts to incentivise persistent cloud use.

TheWeeklyStandard:

• Obama: I'm Concerned About a Loose Nuke Being Detonated in Manhattan. (video)

Reuters:

• Fed's Plosser wants interest rates at 3 pct by end-2015. Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser believes the Fed should aim to raise short-term rates to 3 percent by the end of 2015 and 4 percent by the end of 2016, a Philadelphia Fed spokeswoman said.

Telegraph:

• Moody's warns of Hong Kong risk to Chinese banks. Ratings agency warns of growing risks from the rapid rise in loans from Hong Kong banks owned by some of China's biggest lenders.