BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Friday, August 29, 2014

Market Week in Review

Posted by Gary .....at 9:58 PM

S&P 500 2,003.37 +.75%*

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Posted by Gary .....at 9:46 PM

Indices

S&P 500 2,003.37 +.75%

DJIA 17,098.40 +.57%

NASDAQ 4,580.27 +.92%

Russell 2000 1,174.35 +1.21%

S&P 500 High Beta 34.10 +.71%

Wilshire 5000 20,36 +.82%

Russell 1000 Growth 935.68 +.67%

Russell 1000 Value 1,007.92 +.91%

S&P 500 Consumer Staples 463.79 +.61%

Solactive US Cyclical 137.18 +.17%

Morgan Stanley Technology 996.34 +.11%

Transports 8,408.02 -.26%

Utilities 564.37 +1.64%

Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 108.52 +2.08%

MSCI Emerging Markets 45.11 +.45%

HFRX Equity Hedge 1,178.42 +.17%

HFRX Equity Market Neutral 972.98 -.11%

Sentiment/Internals

NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 233,044 +1.17%

Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 56 -202

Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 37.84 +1.88%

CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 317,727 -1.78%

CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,550,253 +.51%

Total Put/Call .95 +2.15%

OEX Put/Call 3.31 +501.82%

ISE Sentiment 91.0 -22.22%

NYSE Arms .91 -22.88%

Volatility(VIX) 11.98 +4.44%

S&P 500 Implied Correlation 53.33 +18.90%

G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 5.97 +1.87%

Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.37 -3.63%

Smart Money Flow Index 11,425.48 -.16%

ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.595 Trillion +.42%

ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow +$.738 Billion

AAII % Bulls 51.9 +12.6%

AAII % Bears 19.2 -18.7%

Futures Spot Prices

CRB Index 292.75 +1.41%

Crude Oil 95.96 +2.77%

Reformulated Gasoline 262.29 +1.35%

Natural Gas 4.07 +5.83%

Heating Oil 286.01 +1.12%

Gold 1,286.50 .41%

Bloomberg Base Metals Index 205.05 -.18%

Copper 316.05 -1.37%

US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 356.67 USD/Ton unch.

China Iron Ore Spot 87.90 USD/Ton -2.44%

Lumber 343.90 -2.52%

UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,280.80 -.57%

Economy

ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 2.3% -50 basis points

Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .1223 -4.52%

S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 127.78+.26%

Citi US Economic Surprise Index 34.60 +39.0 points
Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -45.10 -8.9 points

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -12.70 +2.1 points

Fed Fund Futures imply 36.0% chance of no change, 64.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 9/17

US Dollar Index 82.75 +.51%

Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.74 -.67%

Yield Curve 185.0 -6.0 basis points

10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.34% -6.0 basis points

Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.372 Trillion +.02%

U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 15.83 -11.98%

Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 159.0 -1.88%

Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 30.63 -1.46%

Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 64.94 -4.15%

Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 218.64 +4.04%

Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 81.50 -3.96%

Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 330.40 -2.33%

Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 257.83 +11.85%

China Blended Corporate Spread Index 310.95 -.22%

10-Year TIPS Spread 2.13% -2.0 basis points

TED Spread 21.25 -.75 basis point

2-Year Swap Spread 22.5 +.25 basis point

3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.75 -5.25 basis points

N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 56.95 -.07%

European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 61.21 -2.72%

Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 282.13 +.54%

CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 82.50 -1.5 basis points

M1 Money Supply $2.794 Trillion -1.1%

Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,039.80 +1.7%

4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 299,750 -1,000

Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.9% unch.

Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.10% unch.

Weekly Mortgage Applications 352.0 +2.80%

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 37.3 +.7 point

Weekly Retail Sales +4.20% unch.

Nationwide Gas $3.44/gallon unch.

Baltic Dry Index 1,147 +4.65%

China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,106.69 -.66%

Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 25.0 -16.67%

Rail Freight Carloads 265,761 -1.69%

Best Performing Style

Small-Cap Growth +1.7%

Worst Performing Style

Large-Cap Growth +.7%

Leading Sectors

Biotech +3.9%

HMOs +3.8%

Oil Service +2.9%

Gold & Silver +2.8%

Disk Drives +2.6%

Lagging Sectors

Social Media -.2%

Education -.7%

Airlines -1.6%

Steel -2.2%

Gaming -2.9%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (16)

TUBE, ITMN, KITE, RPRX, MOBL, BKW, BDSI, LTM, MIK, MPAA, DSW, CMTL, BRCD, TA, ARUN and SBSI

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (7)

PSEC, SLH, GCO, GES, TITN, WSM and SWHC

Weekly Charts
ETFs

High-Volume Gainers

High-Volume Losers

Stocks

High-Volume Gainers

High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Yen Weakness, Short-Covering, Biotech/Tech Sector Strength

Posted by Gary .....at 3:23 PM

Broad Equity Market Tone:

Advance/Decline Line: Higher

Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising

Volume: Light

Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

Volatility(VIX) 12.43 +3.15%

Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.75 -.01%

Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.37 -1.39%

S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.82 +1.48%

ISE Sentiment Index 91.0 +1.11%

Total Put/Call 1.02 -21.54%

NYSE Arms .93 -24.27%

Credit Investor Angst:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.84 +.26%

European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.75 +.88%

Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 30.64 -.79%
Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 64.94 -.91%

Emerging Market CDS Index 282.08 +1.51%

China Blended Corporate Spread Index 310.94 +.06%
2-Year Swap Spread 22.5 +1.25 basis points

TED Spread 21.0 -.25 basis point

3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.5 -1.75 basis points

Economic Gauges:

3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% -1.0 basis point

Yield Curve 185.0 +2.0 basis points

China Import Iron Ore Spot $87.90/Metric Tonne +.69%

Citi US Economic Surprise Index 34.60 +1.7 points

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -12.70 +.9 point

10-Year TIPS Spread 2.13 -1.0 basis point

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei Futures: Indicating +10 open in Japan

DAX Futures: Indicating -7 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs and emerging markets shorts

Disclosed Trades: None

Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Friday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 1:07 AM

Night Trading

Asian equity indices are -.50% to unch. on average.

Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.0 +2.5 basis points.

Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 65.5 -.75 basis point.

FTSE-100 futures unch.

S&P 500 futures +.07%.

NASDAQ 100 futures +.09%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

(BIG)/.30

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

Personal Income for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in June.
Personal Spending for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.4% gain in June.
The PCE Core MoM for July is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in June.

9:00 am EST

ISM Milwaukee for August is estimated to fall to 60.0 versus 63.87 in July.

9:45 am EST

Chicago Purchasing Manager for August is estimated to rise to 56.5 versus 52.6 in July.

9:55 am EST

Final Univ. of Michigan Consumer Confidence for August is estimated to rise to 80.0 versus a prior estimate of 79.2

Upcoming Splits

None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

The Eurozone CPI report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Thursday, August 28, 2014

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Escalating Russia-Ukraine Tensions, Rising European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Technical Selling, Retail/Commodity Sector Weakness

Posted by Gary .....at 12:35 PM