Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.30%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Hospitals +1.63% 2) Gold & Silver +1.16% 3) Disk Drives +1.12%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CYBX, PGTI, UIL, AMAG, AAOI, RGR, CRM, AVGO, BKS, CRI, ELGX, AKRX, HEES, UVE, ZIOP, TRUE, NEWM, INSY, ONNN, EPAM, NTI, HFC, FOE, AES, MDVN and DDD

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ARUN 2) HYG 3) CRM 4) FE 5) WDAY
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CRM 2) MDVN 3) VMC 4) JAKK 5) JAZZ
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:  

• Ukraine Risks Losing IMF Support for Aid If War Escalates. Ukraine risks losing support from IMF member countries for a proposed $17.5 billion bailout if the conflict in the former Soviet republic continues to escalate, according to two people familiar with the matter. The new four-year loan program is awaiting approval by the International Monetary Fund’s executive board, which represents the lender’s 188 member nations. Getting the panel’s consent will become more challenging if pro-Russia rebels continue their advance and seize territory such as the strategic port city of Mariupol, one of the people said. 
• Bond Rout Might Not Be So Bad as Economists Cut Yield Forecasts. This year’s selloff in Treasuries might not be so bad after all. While economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict prices will fall, sending benchmark 10-year yields up more than half a percentage point, they’re also scaling back forecasts for the size of the decline. Ten-year yields will be 2.62 percent by Dec. 31, based on the latest responses, down from about 3.60 percent that the surveys projected six months ago. 
• Asian Stocks Retreat From Highs as Aussie Bonds Climb. Asian stocks slipped from a five-month high while Australian bond yields fell to a three-week low after the nation’s business investment slumped more than estimated. Oil held above $50 a barrel in New York. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.3 percent by 11:10 a.m. in Tokyo, with five stocks falling for every three that gained.

Wall Street Journal:

• Fed’s Yellen Fends Off Charges of Partisan Tilt. House Republicans seize on calendar records, pre-election speeches that seem to favor Democrats as evidence of need to audit central bank. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen came under fire from Republican lawmakers who charged she had politicized the central bank, allegations she rejected in her most acrimonious congressional hearing in a year as Fed chief.
• U.S., Israel Trade Barbs Over Iran Talks. Top U.S. officials sharpened efforts to undermine Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of his Washington visit. Top U.S. officials sharpened efforts to undermine Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of his visit to Washington next week as tensions rose over his push to scuttle a possible nuclear deal with Iran. At what U.S. officials say is a historic low point in relations between the longtime allies, the White House now sees Mr. Netanyahu as a serious threat to President Barack Obama’s efforts to reach an agreement with Iran.

CNBC:

• Morgan Stanley(MS), DOJ reach $2.6B settlement, in principle.

Zero Hedge:

• Doubts (And Bond Yields) Are Rising Again In Greece. (graph)
• Falling AAPL Ends Nasdaq Anti-Gravity Streak. (graph)
• The Most Important Commodity For Housing Is Screaming "Recession". (graph)
• Ukraine Enters The Endgame.
• Russia's Military Exercises Are 10 Times Larger Than NATO's.
• Is This The Most Important Chart For The Future Of The World's Reserve Currency? (graph)
• Janet Yellen Is Freaking Out About "Audit The Fed" – Here Are 100 Reasons Why She Should Be.
• Brazil Consumer Confidence Collapses To Lowest. Ever. (graph)

Business Insider:

• Analysts are becoming increasingly suspicious of Berkshire Hathaway(BRK/A).
• Salesforce.com's(CRM) stock soars to all-time high after it posts a good quarter and CEO vows to double revenue.
• Russia can't defeat NATO — but Putin might still try.
• Don’t kid yourself: Stocks are just as overvalued today as they were in 2000. (graph)
• Excess debt is like a black hole, sucking in all the life around it.

Telegraph: 

• Greece to stop privatisations as Syriza faces backlash on deal. The Syriza leadership risks falling between two stools as it tries chip away at the austerity regime without triggering Greece's ejection from the euro.

Edaily:

• S. Korea Showing Signs of Deflation Stage, PM Lee Says. South Korea's economy is showing signs typical of deflation stage amid global economic slowdown, citing Prime Minister Lee Wan Koo.

Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.75 unch.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 63.75 -1.75 basis points.

• S&P 500 futures +.03%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.04%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (CRI)/1.27
• (SFY)/-.32
• (DDD)/.25
• (CHS)/.02
• (KSS)/1.80
• (SHLD)/-1.89
• (JCP)/.13
• (ROST)/1.11
• (GPS)/.74
• (MTZ)/.38
• (HLF)/1.22
• (MNST)/.59
• (ADSK)/.24
• (OVTI)/.29

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST 

• The CPI for January is estimated to fall -.6% versus a -.4% decline in December.
• The CPI Ex Food and Energy for January is estimated to rise +.1% versus unch. in December.
• Durable Good Orders for January is estimated to rise +1.6% versus a -3.4% decline in December.
• Durables Ex Transports for January are estimated to rise +.5% versus a -.8% decline in December.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex Air for January are estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.6% decline in December.
• Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 290K versus 283K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2395K versus 2425K prior.

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index for December is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.8% gain in November.

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for February is estimated at 3.0 versus 3.0 in January.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Lockhart speaking, Japan CPI, German Unemployment Rate, $27B 7Y T-Note auction, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (CR) analyst conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Earnings Concerns, Profit-Taking, Technical Selling, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.68 -.07%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.99 +.05%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.80 -2.87%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 59.70 -1.70%

• ISE Sentiment Index 91.0 +3.41%

• Total Put/Call 1.03 +3.0%

• NYSE Arms 1.11 +14.07% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.64 -.56%
• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 650.0 -5.30%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.70 +.44%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 23.21 -.62%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 63.60 -2.17%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 379.73 +.49%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 114.17 +.30%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.75 -4.25 basis points

• TED Spread 24.75 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.75 +1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.

• Yield Curve 136.0 -7.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $62.94/Metric Tonne -1.67%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -47.10 +.7 point
• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 50.6 +.8 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.30 +2.4 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.74 +1.0 basis point

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +39 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating -7 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my biotech/retail sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.21%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Computer Hardware -2.40% 2) Airlines -2.15% 3) Utilities -1.51%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• SAM, LL, ES, HURN, WBAI, SODA, NSTG, HPQ, DOOR, CHK, RJET, CLGX, CENX, NUVA, HEI, HLS, CHS, YY, DBVT, BBG, VRX, BPT, DYN, UNT, CVC, KALU, EV, BPT, CLGX, RJET and LC

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HPQ 2) LL 3) VIAB 4) LEN 5) CRM

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PBR 2) GTLS 3) LL 4) CHK 5) PBR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.24%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +1.85% 2) Construction +1.11% 3) REITs +1.0%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• BNFT, EYES, FLTX, RUBI, BSFT, VRSK, FSLR, XXIA, CBI, GOGO, ICLR, MGA, AWAY, PTX, SM, DY, NFX, MWE, HWAY, MATX, GWR, GSM, DWA, CLH, FSLR, MMSI and PLAY

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) NWBO 2) LL 3) ACAS 4) HPQ 5) TGT
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) FSLR 2) AGU 3) TJX 4) MCD 5) JPM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume