Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on Global Growth Fears, Earnings Worries, Technical Selling, Biotech/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Slightly Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.76 +8.37%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.97 +.23%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.33 +.39%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 64.64 +2.70%

• ISE Sentiment Index 80.0 +3.90%

• Total Put/Call .99 -2.94%

• NYSE Arms .94 -38.40% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.10 +2.09%
• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,023.0 +.69%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.85 -.27%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 22.53 -.40%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 61.32 +1.49%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 316.03 +1.32%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 114.10 +.06%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.25 -1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 23.5 -2.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.75 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% +1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 132.0 +1.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $55.81/Metric Tonne -.09%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -61.90 -4.1 points
• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 53.10 +2.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.6 -4.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.80 +3.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -166 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +27 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• Euro Area Said to Give Greece Five Days to Deliver Plan. (video) Greece has until Monday to show how it will follow through on reform commitments after the euro area ruled out speedy access to aid funds, three officials said following a conference call of finance ministry deputies. The currency bloc left the door open for Greece to access 1.2 billion euros ($1.3 billion) that has been allocated to aid the banking system, if the cash-strapped nation can show how it will move ahead with the changes that its creditors are seeking. At the same time, the euro zone’s other 18 members were adamant that Greece needs to deliver specific plans to see any more bailout cash, the officials said.  
• Ukraine Bonds Drop as Moody’s Adds to Default Concern Amid Talks. Ukraine’s Eurobond fell for a third day after Moody’s Investors Service warned that the risk the country will default on its debt is almost certain. The bonds dropped to a record 38.03 cents on the dollar on Wednesday after Moody’s lowered the nation’s credit rating by one step to Ca, the second-lowest level and on par with Argentina. Ukrainian debt has handed investors losses of 30 percent this quarter, the worst among 59 emerging-market peers, as investors speculated the former soviet republic’s creditors will be forced to accept steep writedowns. 
• Estonia Must Counter ‘Hostile’ Russian Propaganda, Adviser Says. Estonia’s plans for a Russian-language television channel will seek to counter propaganda from the regime of President Vladimir Putin amid tensions over the Kremlin’s intentions in the Baltic region, according to a government adviser.
• Sputtering Emerging Markets Threaten Next Global Deflation Shock. The momentum is fading. The cooling of emerging markets runs the risk of chilling the global economy. The world’s growth engines after the 2008 financial crisis, emerging markets are losing momentum as manufacturing in China contracts and recessions loom in Brazil and Russia. At Credit Suisse Group AG, economists predict the expansion of developing countries will slow to 3.8 percent this year, the weakest since 2009. By contrast, they see a 2.2 percent pace in industrial nations, the strongest in five years.
• Saudi Stocks Decline Most in World as Rebels in Yemen Advance. Saudi Arabian stocks dropped the most in more than three months, leading regional markets lower, after forces loyal to Yemen’s Shiite Muslim rebels edged closer to the stronghold of Saudi-backed President Abdurabuh Mansur Hadi. The Tadawul All Share Index was the world’s worst performer among more than 90 measures tracked by Bloomberg after it fell 5 percent to close at 8,868.12, the steepest loss since Dec. 16. The Bloomberg GCC 200 Index, a gauge of the Gulf Cooperation Council’s top 200 equities, also dropped the most in more than three months. Forces loyal to the president collapsed as rebels moved deeper into the south toward the port city of Aden. Violence in the Arabian Peninsula’s poorest country is threatening to turn into a civil war, raising concerns that neighbors including Saudi Arabia may be drawn into the conflict.
• Brazil Real Drops as Central Bank Plans to Pare Back Support. Brazil’s real dropped after the central bank said it will scale back support for the currency. The real lost 0.4 percent to 3.1521 per dollar at 11:26 a.m. in Sao Paulo, extending its run as the worst performing major currency this year. The real has lost 16 percent against the dollar on concern that weakening fiscal accounts will cause the country to lose its investment-grade credit rating. Officials will stop swap auctions that had bolstered the currency at the end of this month, the central bank said in a statement Tuesday.
• Emerging-Market Stocks Halt Seven-Day Advance as China Retreats. Emerging-market stocks ended their longest rally in seven months amid concern slowing growth in China is hurting corporate earnings and South Africa may raise interest rates this year. Shares in Shanghai fell for the first time in 11 days, ending the longest winning streak in 23 years. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.8 percent, after a 10-day, 12 percent rally, the longest winning streak since May 1992.
• Europe Stocks Post Worst Drop in Two Months After Nearing Record. European stocks posted their worst drop in more than two months, after nearing a record on Tuesday. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 1.1 percent to 397.95 at the close of trading, as all but two of 19 industry groups slid. Technology shares posted the worst performance, extending losses as U.S. peers also fell. ARM Holdings Plc and ASML Holding NV lost more than 5.5 percent. Europe’s benchmark gauge closed 0.7 percent away from its 2000 record on Tuesday, up 18 percent for the year amid European Central Bank stimulus. That pushed the Stoxx 600 to the highest valuation based on projected profits in at least 10 years, relative to its own history and to the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, data show. 
• Oil Rises After U.S. Crude Output Gain Shrinks, Dollar Slips. Oil rose to a two-week high in New York as the shrinking size of U.S. crude production gains and a falling dollar outweighed rising supply. U.S. crude production rose 3,000 barrels a day to 9.42 million in the seven days ended March 20, the Energy Information Administration said. The smallest increase since January left output at the highest level in more than three decades. Prices retreated initially as the report showed that crude supplies increased 8.17 million barrels to 466.7 million last week, the most in records compiled since August 1982. U.S. oil explorers sidelined 41 drilling rigs last week, the smallest drop in three weeks and down from the average 59-rig weekly decline in February, according to data from Baker Hughes Inc.
• Strong Dollar Hurting U.S. Steel Mills as Imports Flood Market. The U.S. economic recovery is gaining steam and the dollar has surged. That’s bad news for the $100 billion domestic steel industry. Foreign competitors with weaker currencies pay less to produce the metal. That’s allowing them to undercut U.S. steelmakers in their own backyard as demand wanes in China, Russia and Brazil. The result: the amount of imported steel used in the U.S. has swelled in the first two months of 2015 to 33 percent from 28 percent in 2014, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute. At the same time, idled production capacity at U.S. mills has grown to 31 percent, the highest since 2009. 
• Gold Heads for Longest Rally Since 2012 on Interest Rate Outlook. Gold headed for its longest rally since August 2012 as signs of sputtering U.S. economic expansion fueled bets that interest rates will stay low for longer. Spot prices climbed for a sixth straight session, rising every day since Federal Reserve policy makers cut their projections for growth and suggested they aren’t in a hurry to raise borrowing costs. Higher rates usually send investors to assets with better yield prospects such as equities and bonds.

Wall Street Journal:

• Boko Haram Abducts More Than 400 People, Says Nigerian Lawmaker. Islamist extremists fleeing international military offensive aimed at recapturing northeastern Nigeria. Boko Haram militants have abducted more than 400 people—most of them women and children—in recent weeks as the Islamist extremists have fled an international military offensive aimed at recapturing northeast Nigeria, a Nigerian lawmaker said Wednesday. The militants have seized residents of the northeastern town of Damasak and its surrounding villages since January, Nigerian Senator Maina Ma’aji Lawan said. Mr. Lawan, who represents the region, said more than 70 women were taken from his hometown of Baga alone.

MarketWatch.com: 

• Stocks are overpriced, overleveraged, headed for trouble. Office of Financial Research: high valuations and high debt levels pose risks.

CNBC: 

• Something's troubling about the market: Trader. (video) Todd Gordon of Tradinganalysis.com said that a looming Fed rate hike and the "sell in May and go away" adage could bring some sharp moves into the market.
• Analyst dares to say 'sell' Tesla's(TSLA) cult stock.

ZeroHedge: 

• Is This What's Causing Today's Market Puke? (graph)
• US-Armed Rebels Force Yemen President To Flee Country As Saudis Prepare For War.
• Some Folks At The Fed Are Lost - No Juice To The Macros, Part 1. (graph)
• Fed Now Sees Only 0.2% GDP Growth In Q1. (graph)
• Banks Reclassify Quarter Trillion In Securities Ahead Of Rate Hike. (graph)
• European Bond Market May See Nasdaq 2000 Style Collapse, AXA's Haley Says. (graph)
• What Greece Owes, And More Importantly - When! (graph)
• The Tried-And-True Blueprint For Raising Taxes. 
• Durable Goods Orders Drop And Miss In Worst Run Since Lehman. (graph)
• On Greek "Independence Day", Creditors Prepare To Seal Athens' Fate.

Business Insider: 

• Polish general: Russia is trying to wage hybrid warfare in our country.
• The sanctions on Iran are already falling apart.
• Officials: Yemen's president just fled the country by boat.
• America's oil supply is running over.

NY Times:

• Q. and A. With Fed’s Dennis Lockhart: The Year to Raise Rates. Dennis Lockhart just entered his ninth year as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, and during that time he has never voted to raise interest rates. He took the job during the very early days of the financial crisis, and he has never really had the chance. But that is about to change. Mr. Lockhart said in an interview Monday that he expected he would vote to start raising rates by September at the latest.

Telegraph: 

• Europe blocks desperate Greek attempt to stay afloat. Eurozone says it is "legally impossible" to return €1.2bn in rescue funds to cash-strapped Athens.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -2.16%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Education -7.05% 2) Semis -4.32% 3) Biotech -3.62%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• ENLK, SXCP, ZSPH, NSM, APOL, SXC, SONC, BURL, ESPR, FRAN, LBIO, LNN, AIRM, CALA, BIB, AMPH, IBB, CBMG, SRNE, LOPE, DQ, SJW, TSM, SAGE, HNP, TXN, TWTR, BIIB, DV, FNSR, HPY, LCI, NVDA, FRAN, HQY, BMRN, EBS, PTCT, LRCX, SWKS, DVAX, BLUE, LDOS, OVAS, QRVO, NLNK, SXC, TGTX, SRNE, ACAD, CLDN, ENLK, CLDN, CEMP, LBIO, ZIOP, ESPR and APOL
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) GLW 2) EMB 3) SMH 4) LXK 5) TXN
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) UPS 2) CMI 3) TWTR 4) F 5) TSLA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.22%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Foods +3.52% 2) Energy +1.08% 3) Oil Service +.65%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• KFX, KRFT, LL, LXK and TKC

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) KRFT 2) SN 3) OPK 4) LOCK 5) ZIOP
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) GRPN 2) XEL 3) MRK 4) GD 5) EL
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:

• Greeks Celebrate Independence as EU Creditors Discuss Their Fate. Greeks celebrate their independence Wednesday with a military parade and a folk-music festival sponsored by the Ministry of Defense, as European officials more than 1,000 miles away review the financial aid that will shape their future. The European Central Bank Governing Council will hold a weekly call to assess the Emergency Liquidity Assistance keeping Greece’s banking system afloat while euro-area finance ministry officials will have a separate discussion on the progress of the country’s economic policy program. Without access to capital markets, or the ECB’s normal financing operations, Greek banks rely on almost 70 billion euros ($76 billion) of ELA to cover a financing shortfall exacerbated by steep deposit withdrawals.
• Ukraine Credit Rating Cut to Second-Lowest Level by Moody’s. Ukraine had its credit rating cut by Moody’s Investors Service to the second-lowest level as the country started debt-restructuring negotiations with bondholders. Moody’s lowered the rating by one level to Ca and said in statement that the likelihood of a default is almost certain. The credit outlook is negative. Private creditors are likely to suffer “substantial losses” as a result of the government’s restructuring plan, Moody’s analysts including Kristin Lindow wrote. Ukraine’s indebtedness will “remain very high, in spite of the debt restructuring and plans to introduce reforms,” they said.
• The Place Where China Began Its One-Child Policy Is Dying. On the flat delta of the Yangtze River north of Shanghai, Communist cadres embraced the call to stem the nation’s ballooning population a decade before it became national policy in 1979. The result is that Rudong is a window on China’s future, a windswept place of old people, closed schools and growing retirement homes. “China will see more places like Rudong very soon,” said Wang Feng, a professor of sociology at the University of California at Irvine. “It’s a microcosm of the rapid demographic and economic transformation China has been experiencing the last decades. There will be more ghost villages and deserted or sleepy towns.” 
• RBA Warns Easy Global Policy Lifts Risk of Office Price Fall. Australia’s central bank said easy monetary policy globally is spurring demand for the nation’s office buildings, even as vacancies climb and rents fall, raising risks of a future price slump. “Prices have continued to rise at a national level, driven in particular by investors’ search for yield in the global environment of low interest rates and ample liquidity, with the lower Australian dollar also likely to be adding some impetus to foreign demand,” the central bank said Wednesday in Sydney. “The risk of a large repricing and associated market dislocation in the commercial property sector has increased.”  
• Asian Stocks Advance as Consumer, Materials Shares Lead Gains. Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index recovering Tuesday’s loss to head for a six-month high, as consumer staples and materials shares led gains. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.2 percent to 148.98 as of 9:03 a.m. in Tokyo.

Wall Street Journal:

• Google(GOOG) Makes Most of Close Ties to White House. Search giant averages a White House meeting a week during Obama administration.
• Kraft in Talks to be Acquired by 3G Capital. A deal for food company would likely top $40 billion.
• Biotech’s Rally Fuels Bubble Fears. As Valuations Skyrocket and Nasdaq Nears Record, Anxiety Builds. Nasdaq bubble fears are back. But this time around, the biggest dangers may not involve technology stocks. Instead, some investors are looking askance at biotechnology stocks, a sector that wasn’t nearly as developed when the Nasdaq Composite Index set its record close in 2000 of 5048.62.
• Obama’s Israel Tantrum. The leader of the free world takes revenge on an ally. You’ll have to forgive President Obama. The leader of the free world is still having difficulty accepting that the Israeli people get to choose their own prime minister, never mind his preferences. The latest White House tantrum in the wake of Benjamin Netanyahu’s re-election last...

Zero Hedge:

• "Not Off The Lows" - Stocks Slammed, Bonds Bid, & Copper Clubbed. (graph)
• What A Permabull Thinks Is The Biggest Threat To The Stock Market. (graph)
• Corporate Profit Margins And Investor Consequences. (graph)
• API Signals Fastest Inventory Build In At Least 34 Years. (graph)
• This Is What The Global Economy Got For $11,000,000,000,000 In QE.(graph)
• These Are 2015's "Black Swans" According To SocGen.
• Market Is Rigged, HFTs Are Harmful, And Nothing Will Change According To ConvergEx Survey.
• "Belief That European QE Will Work Is Far-Fetched," Bill White Warns This Will "End Very Badly".
• The Canadian Housing Bubble Has Begun To Burst. (graph)
• "Profound Shift In Liquidity Risk" May Imperil Market Function, New Report Says. (graph)

Business Insider:

• Saudi Arabia is building up forces near Yemen's border.
• One VC had the perfect response to another VC who says we're not in a bubble. I'm not overly worried about a bubble, but VCs tossing around $100k personal wagers tells me something is off.
• SHEPHERDSON: If you want to know what's in store for US manufacturing, look at China.

Telegraph:

• Europe once more sleep walks towards the abyss. Both Berlin and Athens have wildly underestimated the financial, economic and geo-political consequences of default.

Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.0 -.75 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 60.5 +.25 basis point.

• S&P 500 futures unch.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.05%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (APOL)/-.16
• (PAYX)/.46
• (FIVE)/.60
• (FUL)/.37
• (PVH)/1.73
• (RHT)/.41
• (WOR)/.33

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Durable Goods Orders for February are estimated to rise +.2% versus a +2.8% gain in January.
• Durables Ex Transports for February are estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in January.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for February are estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.3% decline in January.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +4,912,500 barrels versus a +9,622,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,687,500 barrels versus a -4,473,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -856,250 barrels versus a +380,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.54% versus a +.3% gain the prior week.

Upcoming Splits

• (MGA) 2-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Evans speaking, German IFO, $35B 5Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA mortgage applications report and the (AXP) investor day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.