Portfolio Manager's Commentary on Investing and Trading in the U.S. Financial Markets
Friday, August 28, 2015
Weekly Scoreboard*
Indices
- S&P 500 1,988.77 +.91%
- DJIA 16,643.01 +1.11%
- NASDAQ 4,828.32 +2.60%
- Russell 2000 1,162.91 +.53%
- S&P 500 High Beta 30.46 +2.95%
- Goldman 50 Most Shorted 125.36 +4.34%
- Wilshire 5000 20,766.01 +.88%
- Russell 1000 Growth 971.92 +1.53%
- Russell 1000 Value 954.80 +.27%
- S&P 500 Consumer Staples 487.80 -.32%
- Solactive US Cyclical 121.56 +. 70%
- Morgan Stanley Technology 1,022.02 +2.49%
- Transports 7,908.66 +.47%
- Utilities 572.21 -4.26%
- Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 108.50 +.74%
- MSCI Emerging Markets 33.72 +5.66%
- HFRX Equity Hedge 1,152.19 -3.46%
- HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,011.41 -.23%
Sentiment/Internals
- NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 227,557 -.55%
- Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -317 +723
- Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 35.42 +45.22%
- CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 210,564 -6.8%
- CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,688,731 +.75%
- Total Put/Call 1.28 -23.81%
- OEX Put/Call .74 -73.94%
- ISE Sentiment 79.0 +12.86%
- NYSE Arms 1.06 -63.32%
- Volatility(VIX) 26.05 -7.06%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 60.01 +3.57%
- G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.16 +5.94%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.62 +1.93%
- Smart Money Flow Index 16.764.56 -1.80%
- ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.695 Trillion +.34%
- ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$5.204 Billion
- AAII % Bulls 32.5 +21.2%
- AAII % Bears 38.3 +14.8%
Futures Spot Prices
- CRB Index 1917.10 +3.01%
- Crude Oil 45.36 +12.7%
- Reformulated Gasoline 1551.55 -1.57%
- Natural Gas 2.72 +1.19%
- Heating Oil 157.65 +7.95%
- Gold 1,133.50 -2.24%
- Bloomberg Base Metals Index 145.78 +.42%
- Copper 233.80 +2.09%
- US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 210.67 USD/Ton unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 56.04 USD/Ton -.11%
- Lumber 237.10 -3.34%
- UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,017.42 -.2%
Economy
- ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -.9% -50.0 basis points
- Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .1913 -3.57%
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 126.21 -.03%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.5 +10.7 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 14.6 -2.3 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.6 -1.0 point
- Fed Fund Futures imply 62.0% chance of no change, 38.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 9/17
- # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 5.61 +39.55%
- US Dollar Index 96.09 +1.37%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.84 -2.32%
- Yield Curve 147.0 +5.0 basis points
- 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.18% +14.0 basis points
- Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.436 Trillion -.29%
- U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.28 +1.72%
- Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 253.0 +1.75%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 22.34 -5.58%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 80.11 -1.37%
- Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 278.84 -15.39%
- Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 68.69 -2.22%
- Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 736.50 -1.33%
- Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 372.80 -11.2%
- iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 116.79 -1.45%
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.62% +8.0 basis points
- TED Spread 27.25 -4.0 basis points
- 2-Year Swap Spread 15.25 -7.5 basis points
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.25 -3.25 basis points
- N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 79.21 -3.53%
- America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 1,872.0 +.06%
- European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 81.20 -3.0%
- Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 344.58 -2.94%
- CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 101.0 unch.
- M1 Money Supply $3.039 Trillion -.31%
- Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,049.70 -.70%
- 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 272,500 +1,000
- Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.7% unch.
- Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.84% -9 basis points
- Weekly Mortgage Applications 412.70 +.24%
- Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 42.0 +.9 point
- Weekly Retail Sales +1.70% unch.
- Nationwide Gas $2.51/gallon -.12/gallon
- Baltic Dry Index 905.0 -8.95%
- China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 833.25 -1.32%
- Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 20.0 -20.0%
- Rail Freight Carloads 278,972 +.91%
Best Performing Style
- Large-Cap Growth +1.1%
Worst Performing Style
- Small-Ca Value -.5%
Leading Sectors
- Oil Service +9.6%
- Semis +5.5%
- Biotech +3.0%
- Alt Energy +2.9%
- Computer Hardware +2.8%
Lagging Sectors
- Airlines -2.3%
- REITs -3.3%
- Homebuilders -4.8%
- Utilities -4.9%
- Gold & Silver -6.3%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (14)
- CAM, GAS, MOV, BBY, DY, BEAT, ANF, BRCD, GB, ACOR, GES, HRTX, NMBL and OSK
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (42)
- MS, EWBC, WDR, NTK, MCK, PCL, PX, ADSK, AZZ, SYF, ARG, ABT, PLUS, EXC, HEI, TIF, ULTA, NTRS, VAL, BLOX, NDSN, GSBD, TYPE, SLB, SSS, COG, DG, FMC, PDCO, LEG, DE, JLL, TOL, ROST, CBG, OPK, DSW, WSM, CRMT, POM, INTU and TFM
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change
Stocks Modestly Lower into Afternoon on China Bubble-Bursting Fears, Fed Uncertainty, Earnings Worries, Utility/Pharma Sector Weakness
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Higher
- Sector Performance: Mixed
- Volume: Around Average
- Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
- Volatility(VIX) 27.21 +4.25%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.90 -.15%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.56 -.94%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 62.06 +9.41%
- ISE Sentiment Index 86.0 unch.
- Total Put/Call 1.23 +3.36%
- NYSE Arms .92 +165.13%
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 79.71 +.97%
- America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,872.0 -2.51%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 81.26 +2.38%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 22.34 -2.66%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 79.70 +1.55%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 344.58 +.55%
- iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 116.79 -.36%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 15.25 +.75 basis point
- TED Spread 27.25 -.75 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.25 -.75 basis point
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .06% +1.0 basis point
- Yield Curve 146.0 -3.0 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $56.04/Metric Tonne +3.91%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.5 -4.8 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 14.6 -3.5 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.6 -1.7 points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.61 +2.0 basis points
- # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 5.61 -.31
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -1 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -302 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating -8 open in Germany
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail sector longs and emerging markets shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
Bear Radar
Style Underperformer:
- Large-Cap Growth -.22%
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Disk Drives -2.42% 2) Utilities -1.54% 3) HMOs -1.42%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- GME, RGS, ADSK, SPLK, CEO, CEA, ZOES, ZIV, HCI, CHDN, CIVI, AAXJ, POM, XIV, GHL, SYK, ASND, AMG, USNA, WDAY, WSM, MAN, GAS, RHI and POM
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) S 2) BTU 3) HOT 4) BHI 5) LOCO
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) DUK 2) BAC 3) RGS 4) TDC 5) TWC
Charts:
Bull Radar
Style Outperformer:
- Small-Cap Value +.29%
- 1) Oil Service +4.15% 2) Gold & Silver +2.88% 3) Energy +2.21%
- ATVI, BIG, SWHC, UAL, CPG, VEEV, MRO, LOCO, HP, SSTK and DDD
- 1) TIF 2) ADSK 3) EPI 4) SPWR 5) GME
- 1) SWHC 2) UAL 3) SLB 4) BIG 5) MOV
Morning Market Internals
NYSE Composite Index:
- Volume Running 19.0% Above 100-day average
- 2 Sectors Rising, 8 Sectors Declining
- 54.8% of Issues Advancing, 42.5% Declining
- 3 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
- 24.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
- Average 14-Day RSI 37.2
- Vix 27.0
- Total Put/Call 1.02
- TRIN/Arms .69
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