Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:  

• Russian Strikes in Syria Draw Ire From Anti-Assad Opposition. (video) Russia pledged to strike targets in Syria as long as Bashar al-Assad’s government continues advancing against rebels, drawing criticism from Syria’s main opposition group, which accused President Vladimir Putin of propping up his embattled ally. Russia carried out four air strikes on Islamic State targets overnight, the Defense Ministry said on Twitter on Thursday. At the same time, Syria’s envoy to Moscow, Riad Haddad, said the air campaign is also targeting the al-Qaeda-affiliated al-Nusra front and Ahrar ash-Sham. With the latter group supported by Qatar and Turkey, according to Hassan Hassan, an associate fellow at Chatham House, that will add to doubts among the U.S. and its allies who were caught by surprise when the bombing campaign kicked off on Wednesday. They say Russia may be targeting other groups in a bid to prop up Assad.
• China to Lose Earliest Manufacturing Gauge as Flash PMI Ends. China watchers, beset by limited data compared with other major economies, will have even fewer tea leaves to analyze, starting this month. The earliest estimate of China’s manufacturing sector, the flash gauge of a purchasing managers index compiled by Markit Economics and sponsored by Caixin Media, is being discontinued. Markit will still publish flash PMI readings for other countries.
• China woes battering Glencore claim Japan victim as risk surges. Sparking a jump in the default risk for other competitors and trading companies reliant on the commodities and energy business. The Chinese economic slowdown that’s caused a rout in mining giant Glencore PLC’s stock price claimed a victim in Japan’s shipping industry, sparking a jump in the default risk for other competitors and trading companies reliant on the commodities and energy business. Daiichi Chuo KK filed for bankruptcy protection in Tokyo on Tuesday with 120 billion yen (Dh3.67 billion, $1 billion) in liabilities, in the biggest failure by a publicly-traded Japanese company this year. The cost to insure shipper Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd’s debt against non-payment surged 43 basis points last month and touched 156, the highest since October 2013, while trading house Mitsui & Co’s credit-default swaps climbed to the most since August 2012, CMA data show. The Markit iTraxx Japan CDS index rose 19 basis points in September.
• Only Bravest Borrowers Need Apply After Emerging-Market Rout. Only the bravest and strongest of borrowers are likely to keep emerging-market bonds from extending the slowest quarter in four years. While the volume of sales is forecast to recover through year-end, the market will remain off limits to all but those issuers ready to tolerate increased costs as investors remain wary of rising U.S. interest rates and a global economic slowdown, according to Union Investment Privatfonds GmbH and PineBridge Investments. Sales in dollars and euros by governments and companies dropped 34 percent on the year to $62.3 billion in the third quarter, the lowest amount since 2011, as China’s surprise devaluation of the yuan in August roiled global markets, spurring demand for haven assets. 
• Glencore's Wild Ride Has Investors Asking: Can It Happen Again? (video) From London to New York to Hong Kong, the frantic question kept coming: could this be another Lehman?
• HCL Technologies Tumbles on Second Sales Warning in 6 Months. Shares of HCL Technologies Ltd. slumped to the biggest loss in more than six years after the fourth-largest Indian software exporter said currency and certain client issues are likely to hurt revenue growth in the quarter ended September. The stock plunged 13 percent to 857.05 rupees in Mumbai, after diving as much as 15 percent earlier. Besides facing an adverse impact from the sharp depreciation of multiple currencies against the dollar, HCL is considering setting aside as much as $20 million for the quarter “as a matter of prudence” because of differences with a client over the objectives of a contract, the New Delhi-based codewriter said in a filing after market hours on Wednesday. 
• Worst Seen Coming for Currencies Ensnared in Commodities Fallout. To foreign-exchange traders, the currencies of commodity exporters are all in the same boat -- and it’s going down. The long suffering exchange rates for Australia, Canada and Brazil have become increasingly correlated with each other during the past month, and banks including BNP Paribas SA, citing an indicator of momentum, and Barclays Plc, noting economic headwinds, say there are more losses to come. “It’s bearish across the board -- we’re negative on all commodity currencies,” said Atul Lele, chief investment officer of Nassau, Bahamas-based Deltec International Group, describing the declines as a once-in-a-generation move. “The selloff will become more persistent” when the U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest rates, said Lele, who manages $2 billion. 
• Yen Gains on Report That Central Bank Will Refrain From Stimulus.
• Heads Dollar Wins, Tails It Rises: It's All Good for Greenback. U.S. economic strength is a boon for the dollar, and evidence of weakness may not prove much of an obstacle. The rally in the greenback is set to stay on course in either scenario, say strategists at Credit Suisse Group AG. The dollar has gained against major peers since Sept. 17, when the Federal Reserve kept its target rate near zero. For a hint at the currency’s path forward, traders are fixated on Friday’s release of September U.S. jobs figures.
• BOE Says Market May Be Underpricing Risks of Falling Liquidity. Financial markets may not be alert to the potential damage caused by drops in liquidity, according to stability officials at the Bank of England. “Market prices might not yet sufficiently be factoring in the potential for a deterioration in liquidity conditions given changes in market functioning and elevated tail risks” related to emerging markets, the officials said, according to the record of the Financial Policy Committee meeting held on Sept. 23 in London. Concern about liquidity is intensifying since a global bond rout in the second quarter erased more than a half a trillion dollars in the value of sovereign debt. Exacerbating matters, the world’s biggest banks are scaling back their bond-trading activities to comply with higher capital requirements imposed in the wake of the financial crisis.
• Europe Banks' Profit Outlook Dims on Commodities, Berenberg Says. European banking profitability is set to worsen as falling commodity values weaken loan books and central bank actions from China to the U.S. cause economic uncertainty, according to analysts at Berenberg Bank. "Developments in commodity markets matter for banks, given what they tell us about economic growth and the implications for asset quality,” Berenberg analysts Nick Anderson and James Chappell said in an note dated Sept. 29. “The financialization of commodities (their widespread use as collateral) underpins asset-quality concerns.”  
• European Stocks Fall as U.S. Manufacturing Report Deflates Rally. An early advance in European stocks proved fragile, turning to losses after a report showed U.S. manufacturing deteriorated in September. Signs of stabilization in China’s factory data had boosted investor optimism earlier today, with rallies in miners and energy shares sending the Stoxx Europe 600 Index up as much as 1.5 percent. The gains evaporated after the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index missed estimates, falling for a third month. Europe’s benchmark gauge lost 0.4 percent to 346.23 at the close of trading. Germany’s DAX Index reversed gains of as much as 1.3 percent to tumble 1.6 percent. Volkswagen dropped 1.3 percent after earlier climbing 5.6 percent. A Markit Economics report showed the a gauge of the country’s manufacturing fell last month to the lowest level since July. 
• Iran Aims to Boost Oil Output by 2 Million Barrels From Projects. Iran plans to increase crude output by 2 million barrels a day from about 50 energy projects slated for investors at a conference in Tehran next month, National Iranian Oil Co. Managing Director Roknoddin Javadi said.
• Alaska’s Money Blizzard May End With Plunge in Price of Oil. With crude prices less than half what they were a year ago, the state is losing millions daily and Alexie’s big payout may shrink dramatically. The dividends come from a fund fed by oil revenue, and lawmakers are considering applying a portion of that money to services. The legislature is readying for a fierce debate over capping payments and levying taxes.
• Goldman Sachs(GS) Says Markets Ready for December Fed Rate Liftoff. After the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates did little to quell volatility last month, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says markets are now ready for a 2015 hike. The Fed can be expected to act to stabilize financial markets, said Francesco Garzarelli, co-head of macro markets and market research at Goldman Sachs in London. The central bank’s September decision confused investors and stoked concern about global growth prospects amid a slowdown in China, helping erase almost $11 trillion from the value of shares worldwide in the third quarter.
• Bonds See Fed Rate Move in 2016 as Yellen Sticks With This Year. There’s a 43 percent probability the Fed will move by its Dec. 15-16 meeting, according to futures data compiled by Bloomberg. The odds are just below 50 percent for the January meeting and 64 percent for the March session. The calculation is based on the assumption that the effective fed funds rate will average 0.375 percent after liftoff, versus the current target of zero to 0.25 percent. “Markets see that the international conditions and volatility remain so challenging that the Fed is simply unable to hike rates,” said Martin Whetton, a rates strategist in Sydney at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. “The markets are just saying: ‘You say hike, we say not yet.”’
• Young Americans Are Giving Up on Getting Rich. Young Americans’ incomes are depressed, their retirement nest eggs are microscopic, and their rate of employment is weak. The trend lines aren’t promising, either, which likely explains why there’s no shortage of pessimism out there. In a Bloomberg poll of Americans age 18 to 35—the millennial generation—47 percent said they do not expect their cohort to live better than their parents. For one thing, it’s hard to imagine outdoing your parents if you’re still sleeping under their roof. According to U.S. Census Bureau data, 15 percent of people age 25 to 34 were living with their parents last year, up from 10 percent 30 years earlier. High home prices and strict mortgage lending standards are prime reasons for many millennials’ failure to launch. “They are priced out of the kind of housing that they grew up in,” says Richard Portes, an economist at London Business School.
• ConAgra(CAG) Will Cut 1,500 Jobs and Move Headquarters to Chicago.

Wall Street Journal:

• Richmond Fed’s Lacker Says October Rate Rise Possible. Believes policy makers could be convinced by Oct. 27-28 meeting that U.S. economy is strong enough to tolerate first rate increase in nearly a decade. The Federal Reserve could get enough new information by its late October policy meeting to spur officials to raise short-term interest rates then, Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal on Wednesday.

Fox News:

• Multiple people reportedly dead at Oregon community college.

Zero Hedge:

• This Is The Endgame, According To Deutsche Bank.
• Mid-East Coup: As Russia Pounds Militant Targets, Iran Readies Ground Invasions While Saudis Panic.
• Tech Censors? Apple(AAPL) Bans App Noting Every US Drone Strike; Facebook(FB) Blocks Ad For "Negativity".
• Global Manufacturing PMI Plunges To 26-Month Lows. (graph)
• Copper, Crude, Credit Crumble As Stocks, Bond Yields Tumble. (graph)
• Atlanta Fed Slashes Q3 GDP Estimate By 50% To Just 0.9%. (graph)
• "Hedge Fund Hotels" Blow Up: September Slams Billionaire Stock Pickers.
• DAX Reverses Month-End Ramp, Suffers Worst Start-To-Q4 Since 2009. (graph)
• Consumer Sentiment Plunges On 401K Drop. (graph)
• The Best And Worst Performing Assets In September, Q3 And 2015 YTD. (graph)
• ISM Manufacturing Weakest Since May 2013 Amid Collapse In New Orders. (graph)
• US Manufacturing PMI Stagnates at 2-Year Low With Weakest Employment Since June 2013. (graph)
• Key Global Equity Index Has Fallen Off The Precipice. (graph)
• Bailed Out FX Broker FXCM Says It Was Hacked, Resulting In "Wire Transfers From Customer Accounts".
• Does Not Compute: DOL Continues To Paint Rosy Jobless Claims Picture As Challenger Sees "Surge" In Unemployment. (graph)
• Major Hurricane Bears Down On Bahamas, May Make US Landfall By Sunday. (pic)
• Second Massive Bomb Explosion Rocks Chinese City, Day After 17 Parcel Bomb Attacks Kill Seven.

Telegraph: 

• Fears of a Chinese 'hard landing' trigger mass exodus from emerging markets. Investors are pulling their money out of emerging markets in the biggest net outflow of capital since 1988. 
• Eurozone recovery shows signs of petering out as stimulus fails to breathe life into factories. Manufacturers in the single currency have another unremarkable month, prompting expectation of bumper QE. 

Handelsblatt:

• Russia Economy Faces Toughest Year in 2016. Three reasons why the Russia economy will further stagnate are oil price, sanctions and lagging structural economic reforms, Russia's RSPP industry federation President Alexander Shokhin says in an interview. 2016 to be "toughest year for Russian economy". Companies not able to secure finance, Shokhin said.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.71%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Coal -8.31% 2) Disk Drives -3.02% 3) Semis -2.43%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• DNKN, CXO, CROX, TCS, FRGI, NMBL, FOXF, XENT, LABL, AGCO, MKC, MTB, SYNA, VRX, MRTX, NATI, CLW, ILMN, JRVR, RMP, ABG, ADSK, XON, LXU, MCRB, HAIN, ATHN, NYLD/A, ITC, FRGI, NMBL and TWOU

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MRO 2) APA 3) FAST 4) DHI 5) XLK
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) AGCO 2) JOY 3) ILMN 4) TSLA 5) YELP
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.83%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +.25% 2) Energy -.18% 3) Homebuilders -.19%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SRPT, VRSK, PBF, HUN and XPO

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) MWE 2) EPD 3) VMW 4) SLV 5) HRB
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AGN 2) RAD 3) EPD 4) SRPT 5) PPG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running 16.8% Above 100-Day Average
• 1 Sector Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
• 48.3% of Issues Advancing, 48.7% Declining
• 9 New 52-Week Highs, 71 New Lows
• 20.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 36.8
• Vix 24.5
• Total Put/Call 1.03
• TRIN/Arms 1.49

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines 

Bloomberg: 

• Putin's Syria Gamble Stokes Fears His Real Goal Is Aiding Assad. (video) Russia President Vladimir Putin’s sudden escalation of airstrikes inside Syria is forcing the world to confront his latest military adventure, against a backdrop of deep distrust over whether defeating the Islamic State is his only goal. While the U.S. and its allies want to see the extremists crushed, Putin’s actions -- the U.S. said he bombed an area where the terror group doesn’t operate -- fueled fears that he really just wants to prop up ally President Bashar al-Assad, who Western leaders say should step aside. It also raises the odds of high-stakes accidents as Russian and U.S. jets share the same air space but potentially different missions. 

• ETF Investors Exit Emerging-Market Stock Bets as China Falters. Traders dumped exchange-traded funds tracking emerging-market stocks at the fastest pace in over a year last quarter amid concerns over the slowdown in China, a selloff in commodities and the prospect of higher interest rates in the U.S. Investors pulled $6.1 billion from U.S.-traded ETFs that offer exposure to a basket of developing-nation equities in the three months through September, the most since the first quarter of 2014, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Exchange-traded funds that invest in both emerging-market stocks and debt as well as individual countries saw outflows in 12 out of 13 weeks ending Sept. 25, with losses totaling $12 billion, the data show. 

• Japan Inc.'s Confidence Is Waning as Headwinds Hit Abenomics. Weakness in the Japanese economy and the slowdown in Asia are chipping away at the nation’s business confidence, with the latest survey from the central bank showing sentiment among large manufacturers worsening. The Tankan index for large manufacturers fell to 12 in September from 15 in June, the Bank of Japan said Thursday, lower than the median estimate of 13 in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The index is forecast to drop to 10 in December. There’s growing concern that Japan’s economy may have contracted in the quarter that’s just ended, which would tip the nation into its second recession since Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took office in 2012. Large companies that have benefited from the weak yen and rising profits under Abe have yet to make a significant commitment to expanding domestic investment.

• Strategist Known as Mad Dog Says Yen Can Climb to 100 per Dollar. The yen has already hit bottom and could strengthen to 100 per dollar next year as Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s unprecedented monetary easing is proving ineffective for the economy, said Eishi Wakabayashi, a former currency trader who twice forecast the yen’s surge to record highs. “The dollar is destined to decline against the yen because it’s been supported forcibly,” meaning that the yen’s 2015 low of 125.86 per dollar was an excessive depreciation, New York-based Wakabayashi said in a Sept. 25 interview in Tokyo.  “The quantitative easing worked only psychologically on asset prices, weakening the yen and lifting stocks while failing to boost inflation. That’s become clear and we will see the repercussion from these shock therapies.” 

• Singapore's Home Prices Match Longest Losing Streak in 2002. Singapore home prices dropped for an eighth quarter, matching the longest losing streak in 13 years, as tighter mortgage curbs cooled demand in Asia’s second-most expensive housing market. An index tracking private residential prices fell 1.3 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30 from the previous quarter, according to preliminary data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority on Thursday. The slump was the most since June 2009, in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.

• Asian Stocks Track U.S. Advance as Investors Await China Data. Asian stocks followed U.S. shares higher, after the regional benchmark index posted its worst quarter since 2011, as investors awaited Chinese factory data. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.2 percent to 124.09 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo.

• America's Oil Output Refuses to Collapse. Here's One Reason Why. Somewhere amid the maze of wells that Murphy Oil Corp. has scattered across Texas’s sprawling Eagle Ford shale formation, Brett Pennington is carrying out a little experiment. What will happen, the exploration chief wants to know, when he jams huge quantities of sand down the narrow mouth of one of these wells. Will more crude seep out? Or, rather, will he smother the opening and choke off the flow?

• Vale(VALE) Gain Is Iron Market Pain as Giant Project Ahead of Schedule. The world’s top iron-ore producer has some bad news for the oversupplied market: its biggest project is running ahead of schedule. S11D, part of the Carajas mining complex in northern Brazil, is on track to beat a targeted December 2016 start date, Vale SA Chief Financial Officer Luciano Siani said in an interview Wednesday. The project -- the industry’s largest and, according to Vale, the most profitable -- will add 90 million metric tons of annual capacity to global supply, although Vale intends to control the speed at which it hits the market, Siani, 45, said in Toronto, where he is holding meetings with investors and analysts. “We will manage the ramp up in order to preserve the premium for this high grade ore,” he said.

• The Major Factors Facing Stocks in the Fourth Quarter. (video)

• Wal-Mart(WMT) Said to Plan Hundreds of Job Cuts at Headquarters. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. is planning job cuts at its headquarters that could involve hundreds of workers, including senior managers, according to people familiar with the situation. The cuts are expected to begin in the next week, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the deliberations are private.

Wall Street Journal:

• Russian Airstrike in Syria Targeted CIA-Backed Rebels, U.S. Officials Say. One area hit was location primarily held by rebels receiving funding, arms, training from CIA and allies. A Russian airstrike Wednesday targeted an area in western Syria primarily held by rebel forces backed by the Central Intelligence Agency and allied spy services, U.S. officials said.

• Chinese Domino Effect Still Threatens World Markets. Emerging markets and others continue to feel reverberations from China stocks’ epic third-quarter tumble.

• Hillary Clinton Emails Had a Two-Month Gap. Archive of messages turned over to officials begins weeks into the start of her tenure. About two months of emails from the start of Hillary Clinton’s tenure as secretary of state are missing, and federal officials haven’t been able to recover them.

• Taliban Tighten Grip on Afghan City. Top official says government knew of Taliban threat to Kunduz but couldn’t respond soon enough.

• Questions About Leak at Federal Reserve Escalate to Insider-Trading Probe. Firm at center of probe says it is a media organization with special legal protections.

• The ‘Wage Gap’ Myth That Won’t Die by Sarah Ketterer. You have to ignore many variables to think women are paid less than men. California is happy to try. 

• Trump: Odd Man Out. The famous Trump base has hit a ceiling. He should retire, and enjoy.  

Fox News:

• Russia-linked hackers tried to access Clinton's email server. (video) Hackers linked to Russia attempted at least five times to gain access to Hillary Clinton’s private email account while she was secretary of state, according to emails released Wednesday. Clinton originally received the infected emails, disguised as speeding tickets, over four hours on the morning of Aug. 3, 2011. The infected emails instructed recipients to print the attached tickets, which would have allowed hackers to take control of their computers.

MarketWatch.com:

• Dow suffers rare 3-quarter losing streak.

CNBC: 

• The third quarter by the numbers. (video)

Zero Hedge: 

• Futures Soar After Chinese Composite PMI Drops To Lowest On Record. (graph)

• A Desperate China Caps Card Withdrawals In Frantic Attempt To Stem Outflows.

• Is This The Scariest Chart In America This Week? (graph)

• Becoming China: From Shale Malinvestment Boom To "We Are Overbuilt" Bust.

• 80% Of All New Home Buyers In Irvine Are Chinese.

• Saudi Arabia Seizes Iranian Ship "Laden With Missile Launchers, Anti-Tank Weapons".

• Liquidation Warning; Bottleneck Spotted. (graph)

• Government Avoids Shutdown: House Passes Bill To Keep Funding Through December 11.

• Brazilian Nightmare Worsens On Bad Budget Data, Record Low Confidence, Horrific Government Approval Ratings.

• Even Evercore ISI Is Now Using The "R" Word, And What Happens Next.

• Biotech Bloodbath Sends Stocks To Longest Losing Streak Since Lehman; Credit Crashes Most In 4 Years. (graph)

Business Insider:

• BREMMER: The risk of an accident between the US and Russia has gone 'way up'.

• Chinese SMEs are struggling. (graph) “A key factor weighing on the headline index was a sharper contraction of manufacturing output in September,” said Markit. “According to panelists, worsening business conditions and subdued client demand had led firms to cut their production schedules. Weaker customer demand was highlighted by a further fall in total new orders placed at Chinese goods producers in September. “Furthermore, the rate of reduction was the steepest seen for just over three years. Data suggested that the faster decline in total new business partly stemmed from a sharper fall in new export work. The latest survey showed new orders from abroad declined at the quickest rate since March 2009." In what will no doubt raise questions over China’s economic transitions from an industrial to services economy, there was also worrying news on activity across the nation’s services sector. The separate Caixin services PMI gauge dipped to 50.5 in September from 51.5, falling to the lowest level in 14-months.

• Chinese firms are bearing up on the economy. Based on the latest quarterly survey of banks, companies and households conducted by the People’s Bank of China – a report that captures the views of 20,000 urban households, 5,000 businesses and 3,100 banks – sentiment towards the economy deteriorated sharply despite relative stability in business profits, orders and labor market conditions. “The business survey for Q3 makes for gloomy reading,” said Chang Liu and Mark Williams, economists at Capital Economics in a research note released overnight. “The headline index on firms’ confidence in the state of the economy fell to its lowest since the trough in 2009. Firms’ sentiment about their own circumstances deteriorated too, with this index falling below 50 for the first time since 1999″.

• The next shoe to drop. Here’s how the junk-bond debacle bleeds into stocks. Part of the fuel that powered stocks to such vertiginous heights over the last few years was the M&A boom. Companies bid for each other with huge premiums over the already inflated stock prices. These deals were mostly funded with shares, of which companies could print an unlimited amount, and with debt, of which even over-indebted junk-rated companies could issue nearly unlimited amounts, thanks to the Fed’s policies that drove yield investors to near-insanity.

• This chart is just the worst.

• Russia's bombing campaign could give a dangerous boost to extremists in Syria.

• Target(TGT) is making a big change to compete with Amazon(AMZN) and Wal-Mart(WMT).

Reuters:

• Express Scripts(ESRX) says Praluent, Repatha will not be "budget busters". Express Scripts Holding Co said on Wednesday two costly new potent cholesterol fighters will not be "budget busters" for its clients and that most prescriptions for the drugs have been rejected because patients did not meet required medical criteria. "We're seeing a lot of patients who either don't qualify or their physicians are not providing (needed) information," said Everett Neville, a vice president of Express Scripts, whose company is the largest pharmacy benefit manager in the United States.

• U.S.-based stock funds get most cash in five months in latest week -ICI.

Financial Times:

• Brazil central bank vows to do what it takes to control inflation. Brazil’s central bank is willing to do whatever is necessary to control inflation while the country grapples with the thorny issue of how to rebalance the nation’s public finances, a senior official has said. Tony Volpon (pictured), head of international affairs at the central bank, said that while tax increases to balance the budget could raise prices, monetary policy would be adapted to ensure that inflation eventually converged to the official target of 4.5 per cent.

• ‘Fragile’ economy threatens oil oversupply rebalance, says energy expert. A fragile global economy threatens the progress of rebalancing an oversupplied oil market, says Gary Ross, executive chairman of Pira Energy Group, the research company. Cuts in oil production were happening more slowly than expected after crude prices collapsed in the past year, said Mr Ross. Even with oil companies pulling the plug on big projects and deploying fewer rigs to drill for oil, supply remains robust.

Telegraph:

• Emerging market growth miracle in 'jeopardy', warns IMF chief Christine Lagarde. Falling commodity prices mean economies face a fifth consecutive year of declining growth, says Christine Lagarde. 

• Deutsche Bank could be forced into riskier lending. If the troubled German lender’s latest round of cost cuts fail, it could be forced to take more drastic action to improve returns, according to analysts at credit ratings agency Moody’s. 

Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 160.50 -4.5 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 92.5 -1.75 basis points.

• S&P 500 futures +.49%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.73%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

• (MKC)/.87

• (CAMP)/.26

• (MU)/.33

• (prgs)/.37
  

Economic Releases

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts for September.

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 271K versus 267K the prior week.

• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2230K versus 2242K prior.
  

9:45 am EST

• Final Markit US Manufacturing PMI for September is estimated at 53.0 versus 53.0 in August.

10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending for August is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.7% increase in July.

• ISM Manufacturing for September is estimated to fall to 50.6 versus 51.1 in August.

• ISM Prices Paid for September is estimated to rise to 40.0 versus 39.0 in August.
  

Afternoon:

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for September are estimated to fall to 17.6M versus 17.72M in August.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking, ECB's Draghi speaking, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, BoE Minutes, Australian Retail Sales report, Japan Unemployment report, Bloomberg weekly Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (F) September conference call and the (CLX) analyst day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Quarter-End Window-Dressing, Short-Covering, Biotech/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 25.14 -8.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.91 -.58%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.41 -3.87%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 64.39 +1.13%

• ISE Sentiment Index 60.0 -14.29%

• Total Put/Call .77 -43.48%

• NYSE Arms .53 -11.06% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 92.88 -.50%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,095.0 -1.35%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 95.62 -1.16%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 21.47 -3.37%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 90.65 -1.96%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 386.53 -3.99%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 119.62 +.02%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 11.75 +1.25 basis points

• TED Spread 32.75 +.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -28.0 -2.25 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.64 +.51%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield -.01% -1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 142.0 +1.0 basis point

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $56.32/Metric Tonne +.48%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -20.50 -.1 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 33.0 -2.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -25.2 +.4 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.42 +2.0 basis points
• # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 5.85 +.26

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +152 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -53 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -28 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech/retail/medical sector longs 

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long