Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 
  • Why People Have Been Worrying About Deutsche Bank, in 12 Charts.
  • Draghi Lays Blame for European Banks’ Woes on Industry Behavior. Mario Draghi said the financial industry must stop blaming the actions of central banks for their problems and focus on fixing internal management and risk failings. “Many banks have problems that don’t have primarily to do with the low level of interest rates but possibly with other reasons,” the European Central Bank president said after a meeting with German lawmakers in Berlin on Wednesday. He cited business models and risk management and said this was “generally acknowledged” by those at the talks. Draghi’s appearance follows criticism by some politicians that the ECB’s policies are hurting savers and weakening banks. The talks also come amid increasing concern about Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank AG, which had its share price fall to a record low this week as investors questioned the lender’s ability to weather rising legal charges.
  • China's Red-Hot Property Market Risks Missing Lessons From Japan's Crash. China is turning Japanese. That’s the increasingly held view of observers comparing China’s frenzied real-estate market with the epic bust that more than two decades ago hobbled one of its biggest economic rivals. While the two scenarios aren’t a carbon copy, similarities between China’s record credit boom in recent years and Japan’s bubble era have been made at various times by a number of economists and investors. Now, those voices are being heard more often -- even within China. Huang Yiping, a Peking University professor who advises China’s central bank, warned Saturday about leverage that continues to climb, saying that the top risk is more and more investment generates less growth. “That’s exactly the story that unfolded in Japan.” 
  • China Said to Mull Bigger Cut in Solar Prices in Some Regions. China may cut the amount of money that solar power generators receive for electricity by more than previously planned, according to two people familiar with the matter. The National Development and Reform Commission may reduce tariffs for solar farms in regions that receive the least amount of sunlight by about 13 percent in 2017 from the 2016 level of 0.98 yuan (15 cents) a kilowatt-hour, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the information isn’t public. The cut compares with a 2 percent reduction the agency had planned for 2017. The move hasn’t been finalized and may be adjusted later, said the people.
  • U.S. Warns Russia It’s Poised to Stop Syria War Cooperation. Secretary of State John Kerry warned that the U.S. will suspend contacts with Russia over Syria unless President Vladimir Putin’s government stops a bombing campaign by Russian and Syrian forces in the besieged city of Aleppo. “The Secretary made clear the United States and its partners hold Russia responsible for this situation, including the use of incendiary and bunker-buster bombs in an urban environment, a drastic escalation that puts civilians at great risk,” State Department spokesman John Kirby said Wednesday in a statement after a call between Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
  • How Actual Nuts and Bolts Are Bringing Down Oil Prices. Last spring, Statoil ASA announced it had used the same oil well design and components to drill three reservoirs for the price of one. While the specs for Norwegian Sea drilling might provoke reactions akin to the oil field’s name—the Snorre—such standardized pipes and casings could hold the key to a pervasive mystery about today’s energy market: Why is everyone still drilling when prices are in the basement?
  • Yellen Cornered by Lawmaker in Heated Exchange Over Fed Politics. (video) Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s defense of the central bank as non-partisan came under attack on Wednesday, as a Republican congressman cornered her on whether a key policy maker would have a conflict of interest in discussing a post in the next U.S. president’s administration. Fed Governor Lael Brainard has donated to Clinton’s campaign and is widely viewed as a potential Clinton pick for Treasury secretary. Yellen hesitated and then demurred when Representative Scott Garrett of New Jersey asked whether Brainard would have a conflict of interest if she were indeed in talks with Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s campaign about a position. The election takes place Nov. 8. “I would have to consult my counsel, I’m not aware that that’s a conflict,” Yellen said in testimony to the House Financial Services Committee in Washington, while rejecting Garrett’s suggestion that the U.S. central bank has a political bias.
Zero Hedge:

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Growth -.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Restaurants -1.2% 2) Retail -1.1% 3) Biotech -1.0%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • FGP, VSAR, TPX, FIZZ, SONC, EXEL, YRD, FDS, PAYX, JOBS, NKE, BABY, LEG, KITE, PLAY, HSEA, CBOE, JACK, BGSF, SCSS, SBH, JUNO, DXCM, HTZ, ICUI, PLAY and FGP
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) JNK 2) GPS 3) TWLO 4) EWW 5) HES
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) FIZZ 2) BIDU 3) TPX 4) SONC 5) M
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Value -.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service +1.4% 2) Steel +1.1% 3) Energy +.9%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • MYOK, TTS, INCY, SRPT, DDS and NLNK
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) JNPR 2) GLW 3) SYMC 4) EXEL 5) RSX
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) VALE 2) TASR 3) SPWR 4) TWTR 5) DDS
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • Hong Kong-Shanghai Link Looks Lopsided as Outflows Jump: Chart.
  • Asian Stocks Drop as Topix Shares Go Ex-Dividend, Oil Volatile. Asian stocks fell, pushed down by declines in Japanese shares and a weaker oil price as hopes of an output cut fizzled. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.5 percent to 141.33 as of 9:06 a.m. in Tokyo. The Topix index dropped 1.1 percent, the most in two-and-a-half weeks, as more than half the companies on the benchmark traded without the right to the next dividend. The yen was at 100.49 per dollar. Oil trading was volatile, with the price below $45 a barrel as investors scaled back expectations of a deal on output cuts when OPEC ministers meet later Wednesday.
  • Bond Market in Deepest Central Bank-Induced Slumber Since 2014. (video) Concerns about a contentious U.S. presidential election and the health of Germany’s largest bank still aren’t enough to stir a Treasuries market emboldened by accommodative central banks. A measure of expected price swings in Treasuries sank to its lowest level since December 2014 as turmoil elsewhere in financial markets pushed investors into haven assets. Benchmark 10-year securities rallied for a second day after Monday’s U.S. presidential debate and as European stocks halted a two-day rout amid concern about Deutsche Bank AG’s financial footing.
Wall Street Journal:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 115.25 -7.25 basis points. 
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 32.25 -.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.09 -.03%
  • S&P 500 futures -.21%
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.19%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate 

  • (ATU)/.30
  • (BBRY)/-.05
  • (PAYX)/.57
  • (WOR)/.77
  • (PIR)/-.06
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Preliminary Durable Goods Orders for August are estimated to fall -1.5% versus a +4.4% gain in July. 
  • Preliminary Durables Ex Transports for August are estimated to fall -.5% versus a +1.3% gain in July.
  • Preliminary Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex Air for August are estimated to fall -.1% versus a +1.5% gain in July.
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +2,307,500 barrels versus a -6,200,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -612,500 barrels versus a -3,204,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +760,630 barrels versus a +2,238,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.49% versus a -.9% decline the prior week.  
Upcoming Splits 
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Yellen speaking, Fed's Kashkari speaking, Fed's Bullard speaking, Fed's Mester speaking, Fed's George speaking, OPEC Meeting Day 3, Japan Retail Sales report, $28B 7Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA mortgage applications report, (MCO) investor day and the (CHS) analyst day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Diminished Political Uncertainty, Less Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Technical Buying, Tech/Airline Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.22 -8.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 117.53 -.30%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.14 -2.62%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 46.50 -6.36%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 71.0 +39.2%
  • Total Put/Call .97 -15.65%
  • NYSE Arms 1.31 +10.3
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 77.76 -1.78%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 684.0 -.76%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 102.07 +2.62%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 24.54 +2.1%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 32.58 +.48%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 235.26 -1.69%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 132.08 +.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.5 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 61.5 -7.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -42.0 -4.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.10 +.40%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .25% +7.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 81.0 -4.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $56.63/Metric Tonne -.25%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.20 +.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -10.70 -1.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.7 +2.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.54% -2.0 basis points
  • 49.9% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 14 meeting, 53.0% chance at Feb. 1 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -193 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -29 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +21 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long