Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Road & Rail -4.0% 2) Oil Service -2.8% 3) Homebuilders -1.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SCSS, BJRI, DST, IIIN, RLI, EBAY, SYNT, TBI, RS, LAD, KALU, BLX, SBNY, HQY, KCG, GPI, UNP, CLB, FUN, TSCO, DNKN, UTEK, LRCX, FSB, ARIA, PHM, CCK, ADS, PKG, TRV, WBC, CNSL, LAD and DXPE

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) UNP 2) PYPL 3) NUE 4) MSFT 5) USB

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) GDSI 2) MTW 3) ARIA 4) CNSI 5) DYN

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +1.5% 2) Biotech +.9% 3) Medical Equipment +.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• BANC, AXP, LSTR, SNA, MAT, GGG, IMAX, ICLR, FTI, X and HXL

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ZIOP 2) ATVI 3) PAA 4) EBAY 5) GR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) FCEL 2) KMI 3) LSTR 4) UFPI 5) AXP

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -.2% Below 100-Day Average
• 1 Sector Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
• 31.7% of Issues Advancing, 64.9% Declining
• 47 New 52-Week Highs, 18 New Lows
• 57.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 38.7%
• Vix 14.5 +.76%
• Total Put/Call 1.32 +40.4%
• TRIN/Arms .76 -.46%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 116.75 -1.75 basis points. 
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 33.75 -1.0 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.58 +.02%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.12%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.12%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate 

• (ALK)/2.06
• (AAL)/1.70
• (BK)/.81
• (DHR)/.82
• (FITB)/.65
• (GNTX)/.30
• (ITW)/1.49
• (NUE)/.90
• (PPG)/1.56
• (PHM)/.43
• (DGX)/1.35
• (RS)/1.31
• (SNA)/2.15
• (TXT)/.66
• (UNP)/1.40
• (VZ)/.99
• (APOL)/-.05
• (CCI)/1.11
• (FWRD)/.51
• (MXIM)/.47
• (KLAC)/1.04
• (MSFT)/.68
• (PYPL)/.35
• (SLB)/.22
• (WERN)/.26

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 250K versus 246K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2053K versus 2046K prior.
• The Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for October is estimated to fall to 5.0 versus 12.8 in September.      

10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales for September are estimated to rise to 5.35M versus 5.33M in August.
• The Leading Index for September is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.2% decline in August. 

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Dudley speaking, ECB Press Conference,  Bloomberg Economic Expectations Index for October, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Less Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Earnings Optimism, Oil Gain, Commodity/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Slightly Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.35 -6.09%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 118.47 -.54%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.67 -1.43%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 43.78 -6.07%

• ISE Sentiment Index 63.0 -5.97%
  

• Total Put/Call .94 -2.08%

• NYSE Arms .73 -16.64% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 73.44 -2.39%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 540.0 -9.15%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 95.25 -2.81%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 18.89 +2.05%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 33.80 -1.82%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 236.98 -3.21%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 132.50 unch.

• 2-Year Swap Spread 23.25 +.5 basis point

• TED Spread 55.75 +.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -38.5 +2.75 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.58 +.24%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .33% unch.

• Yield Curve 95.0 +.25 basis point
  

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $58.37/Metric Tonne -.07%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -23.60 -6.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 18.3 -2.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -18.40 -.1 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.69% +1.0 basis point
• 62.6% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 14 meeting, 64.1% chance at Feb. 1 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +19 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +18 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +2 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/retail sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.7%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +3.5% 2) Gold & Silver +2.5% 3) Energy +1.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• BANC, TCO, PEGA, GNC, ADTN, DATA, BABY, OAS, MIME, KORS, HAL and STLD

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GNC 2) RAD 3) ISRG 4) TRIP 5) HPE

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) YHOO 2) CRMT 3) HPQ 4) IPAS 5) OAS

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume