Sunday, November 27, 2016

Weekly Outlook

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on commodity weakness, rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, yen strength, technical selling, profit-taking and rising long-term rates. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, November 26, 2016

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • In Miami’s Little Havana, Castro’s Death Sparks Celebration. Cuban-Americans took to the streets in Miami Saturday morning as news spread that Fidel Castro, the father of the Cuban revolution and a man who prompted many to flee the island, leaving behind homes and family members, had died at 90. While Havana remained eerily quiet after the announcement of Castro’s death on state media, hundreds had gathered on a stretch of 8th Street in Miami’s Little Havana, banging pots and pans and dancing. Cars rolled slowly through the streets, honking and waving Cuban and American flags. Other celebrations were seen in Cuban-American neighborhoods like Hialeah.
  • Italian ‘Yes’ Vote Won’t Solve Nation’s Problems, Investor Says. A win for Italy’s Prime Minister Matteo Renzi in next month’s constitutional reform referendum won’t necessarily lead to a straightforward, positive outcome for the nation’s bonds, according to ABN Amro Private Banking. Italian sovereign securities tumbled in the wake of Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the U.S. presidential elections this month, on concern that the nation could be next in line when it comes to anti-establishment movements. The same could happen regardless of the outcome of the Dec. 4 vote.
  • Clinton Recount Plan Draws Sore Loser Jibe From Team Trump. Hillary Clinton’s campaign will participate in vote recounts of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan if they take place, drawing a rebuke from Donald Trump’s team that the Democrat is being a “sore loser” and part of a “ridiculous” effort. If Green Party candidate Jill Stein initiates recounts in those states as she intends, the Clinton campaign “will participate in order to ensure the process proceeds in a manner that is fair to all sides,” Clinton campaign lawyer Marc Elias said Saturday in a post on the blogging website Medium.com. He added that he doesn’t expect the action to overturn Trumps election.
  • Lego, iPad Drive Record Online Sales on Black Friday, Adobe Says. U.S. consumers spent a record $3.3 billion online on Black Friday, scooping up everything from Lego sets to Apple iPads, according to Adobe Systems Inc. Two-day sales starting on Thanksgiving totaled $5.3 billion, marking an 18 percent increase from a year earlier, Adobe said Saturday in a statement. Spending via mobile devices on Friday increased 33 percent to an all-time high of $1.2 billion.
Wall Street Journal:
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (MGM), (TRCO), (HAR), (CAB), (NXPI), (WWAV) and (BHI).
Zero Hedge:

Friday, November 25, 2016

Weekly Scoreboard*

 Indices
  • S&P 500 2,213.35 +1.20%
  • DJIA 19,152.14 +1.31%
  • NASDAQ 5,398.92 +1.22%
  • Russell 2000 1,347.20 +2.88%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 36.03 +2.30%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 122.01 +3.72%
  • Wilshire 5000 23,048.10 +1.40%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,054.0 +1.04%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,080.23 +1.49%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 524.48 +1.04%
  • Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.3138 +1.95%
  • Morgan Stanley Technology 1,225.63 +.79%
  • Transports 9,044.21 +2.88%
  • Utilities 639.95 +1.62%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 85.26 +.14%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 35.27 +1.29%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,149.08 +.24%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 999.68 +.04%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 271,114 +1.35%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 640 +215
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 44.4 -8.9%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 276,326 -.44%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,027,539 +2.73%
  • Total Put/Call .79 -15.96%
  • OEX Put/Call 7.12 +1,773.6%
  • ISE Sentiment 115.0 +64.29%
  • NYSE Arms 1.03 +22.62%
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.34 -7.57%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 53.53 +4.67%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.51 -1.78%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.22 +.63%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 19,232.62 +.87%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.705 Trillion +.70%
  • ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$8.412 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 49.9 +7.0%
  • AAII % Bears 22.1 -16.9%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 185.73 +1.80%
  • Crude Oil 44.44 +2.52%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 137.27 +2.78%
  • Natural Gas 3.07 +7.86%
  • Heating Oil 147.0 +2.27%
  • Gold 1,178.40 -3.09%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 176.95 +5.63%
  • Copper 266.80 +7.39%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 207.0 USD/Ton +3.92%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 79.61 USD/Ton +9.37%
  • Lumber 334.40 +3.88%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,163.24 +1.46%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.6% unch.
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +6.2% unch.
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1120 -.45%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 129.91 +.24%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.30 +1.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 63.30 +22.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.6 +.2 point
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0% chance of no change 100.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 12/14
  • US Dollar Index 101.49 +.15%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,496.31 +.02%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.16 +2.06%
  • Yield Curve 124.0 -4.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.36% +3.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.427 Trillion +.29%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 28.99 -.03%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 358.0 -.08%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 23.47 +6.95%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 44.30 -1.28%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 101.22 -2.33%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 73.60 -1.41%
  • Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 749.69 -.01%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 229.88 -1.4%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 132.87 +.07%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.93% -2.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 44.5 -4.0 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 19.75 -4.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -55.25 -4.25 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 73.25 -3.96%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 614.0 -.53%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 108.77 +.05%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 270.98 -3.35%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 137.50 -2.0 basis points
  • M1 Money Supply $3.382 Trillion +2.9%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 922.0 +1.10%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 251,000 -2,500
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.5% +10.0 basis points
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.03% +9.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 460.30 +5.5%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 44.8 -.6 point
  • Weekly Retail Sales +.9% +10.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.13/gallon -.02/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,181.0 -6.05%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 777.13 +.13%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 40.0 unch.
  • Rail Freight Carloads 276,384 +2.75%
Best Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value +3.2%
Worst Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth +1.0%
Leading Sectors
  • Steel +11.3%
  • Gaming +5.4%
  • Telecom +3.2%
  • Defense +3.3%
  • Energy +3.0%
Lagging Sectors
  • Gold & Silver -.9% 
  • Biotech -1.2%
  • Medical Equipment -1.9%
  • Drugs -2.1%
  • Hospitals -3.0%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (12)
  • HW, LOCK, FOXF, VRTV, DLTR, FBNC, PLNT, PERY, ACRS, PFSI, HRG and JACK
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (11)
  • AMWD, WMK, CIVI, LLY, URBN, TSN, PANW, CVGW, PDCO, DY and JUNO
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change