Thursday, January 19, 2017

Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 10:52 AM
Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth unch.
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Road & Rail +4.9% 2) Oil Tankers +1.4% 3) HMOs +.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • TDOC, CSX, CP, CHKP, PTC, TAL, NFLX, MNK, NSC, DDD, GIMO, FN, EMES, UNP, GATX, CCJ, TSLA, FNSR, MBLY, LPG, HRTX, EROS, CLVS, EMR and CENX
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) APO 2) OCN 3) UNP 4) HPE 5) COL
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) MBLY 2) NFLX 3) EMR 4) TSLA 5) HPQ
Charts:
0 comments

Morning Market Internals

Posted by Gary .....at 10:18 AM
NYSE Composite Index:
0 comments

Wednesday, January 18, 2017

Thursday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 9:36 PM
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • China’s Holdings of U.S. Treasuries Drop by Most Since 2011. China’s holdings of U.S. Treasuries declined in November for a sixth straight month, as the world’s second-largest economy uses its foreign-exchange reserves to support the yuan. Japan’s holdings also dropped but the country kept its spot as America’s largest foreign creditor. A monthly Treasury Department report released in Washington on Wednesday showed China held $1.05 trillion in U.S. government bonds, notes and bills in November, a drop of $66.4 billion from the prior month that was the steepest since December 2011. Japan’s portfolio decreased for fourth consecutive month, falling by $23.3 billion to $1.11 trillion, according to the data. The People’s Bank of China, owner of the world’s biggest foreign-exchange reserves, has burned through a quarter of its war chest since 2014. U.S. Treasury data show the country has dumped about $270 billion of U.S. government debt since its holdings peaked at $1.32 trillion in 2013 and is using the funds to underpin the yuan and stem capital outflows.
  • Global Risk Briefing. 
  • Risk-On Stance Greets Asia After Yellen Remarks. A new-found enthusiasm for riskier assets greeted Asian traders, with stocks climbing and the yen weakening after Janet Yellen said she stands ready to raise interest rates if the American economy strengthens as the central bank anticipates. Treasuries slumped. Japan’s Topix index rose 1.3 percent as of 9:40 a.m. in Tokyo and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.4 percent. Hang Seng futures climbed 0.1 percent.
  • OPEC Seeks to Quiet Doubts on Supply Cuts as Oil Rally Falters. When OPEC and Russia meet this weekend to gauge progress on their oil-supply deal, they’ll be trying to dispel the shadow of previous unfulfilled promises. Oil prices rose 20 percent in the month after OPEC agreed to cut output, reaching $54.06 a barrel in New York on Dec. 28. Since then, they’ve slipped almost 5 percent as traders, with one eye on rising U.S. shale production, await proof that OPEC and other producers will live up to their deal. They recall how Russia broke its pledge during cutbacks in 2008, while some members of the producers group failed to fully implementthe agreement.
  • Yellen Says Economy Near Goals Warrants Gradual Rate Hikes. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said the U.S. economy is “close” to the central bank’s objectives of full employment and stable prices and she’s confident it will continue to improve. “It is fair to say the economy is near maximum employment and inflation is moving toward our goal,” Yellen told the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco Wednesday. While “it makes sense to gradually reduce the level of monetary policy support,” the timing of the next interest-rate increase “will depend on how the economy actually evolves over coming months,” she said.
  • Harrison Eyes Another Job After Retiring Early From Canadian Pacific(CP). Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. appointed Keith Creel as chief executive officer to replace Hunter Harrison, who is stepping down earlier than planned after seeking the board’s permission to work for another railroad.
  • Mnuchin Faces Senate Grilling on Policies, Personal Holdings. Steven Mnuchin has finally come out to defend the thorniest issue about his nomination: His record running OneWest Bank. Now, he will face 26 U.S. senators in a public hearing seeking clarity on his policy views as he interviews for the job of Treasury secretary. The Senate Finance Committee hearing on Thursday, which kicks off at 10 a.m. in Washington, will be “contentious and downright uncomfortable,” said Isaac Boltansky, policy analyst at Compass Point Research & Trading LLC. Democrats have promised an ugly fight that the Republican majority and Mnuchin will likely win to secure the former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. partner’s confirmation.
Wall Street Journal:
Zero Hedge:
Busines Insider:
Telegraph:
AFP: 
  • Mexican resort area reels from back-to-back shootings. A tranquil Mexican seaside region reeled Wednesday from two shootings that left nine people dead and shattered the peace in a beach resort area beloved by US and European tourists. Mexico's so-called "Mayan Riviera" had largely avoided the major drug-related violence plaguing other regions. But on Tuesday gunmen opened fire on the state prosecutors' office in Cancun, triggering a firefight a day after a murky nightclub shooting in a nearby resort sent music festival-goers fleeing in terror.
Nikkei:
  • BOJ Mulls Raising Growth Rate Outlook at Policy Meeting. Bank of Japan considers upward revision of economic growth outlook at next policy meeting on Jan. 30-31.
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 116.75 +.25 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 34.0 -.5 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.92 -.08%. 
  • S&P 500 futures unch. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures unch.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (BBT)/.74
  • (BK)/.77
  • (CHKP)/1.25
  • (JBHT)/1.01
  • (KEY)/.29
  • (PPG)/1.18
  • (UNP)/1.33
  • (AXP)/.99
  • (IBM)/4.88
  • (SWKS)/1.58
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Housing Starts for December are estimated to rise to 1187K versus 1090K in November.
  • Building Permits for December are estimated to rise to 1225K versus 1201K in November.
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 252K versus 247K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2075K versus 2087K prior.
  • Philly Fed Business Outlook for January is estimated to fall to 15.1 versus 21.5 in December.    
11:00 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +128,360 barrels versus a +4,097,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +2,075,000 barrels versus a +5,023,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +561,270 barrels versus a +8,356,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.7% versus a +1.6% gain prior.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The ECB rate decision, ECB press conference, China GDP/Industrial Production/Retail Sales reports, Bloomberg Economic Expectations Index for January, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
0 comments

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Economic Optimism, Yen Weakness, Technical Buying, Biotech/Financial Sector Strength

Posted by Gary .....at 3:48 PM
Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: About Average
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.50 +5.31%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.78 +.60%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.83 -.91%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.70 +.76%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 35.0 -52.7%
  • Total Put/Call 1.11 +15.63%
  • NYSE Arms 1.09 +6.44%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.36 +.05%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 469.0 +9.9%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 86.08 -1.13%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 21.09 +1.84%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 33.96 -1.32%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 236.88 +1.12%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 132.96 +.2%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 29.5 unch.
  • TED Spread 50.0 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -42.50 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.00 -.48%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .52% unch.
  • Yield Curve 120.0 +3.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $82.05/Metric Tonne +.61%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 39.50 -1.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 68.0 -1.5 basis points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 38.40 +.1 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.02 +2.0 basis points
  • 33.1% chance of Fed rate hike at March 15 meeting, 46.4% chance at May 3 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +96 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +23 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -1 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my in my tech/biotech sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
0 comments

Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 2:52 PM
Bloomberg:
  • Commerce Pick Ross Calls China ‘Most Protectionist’ Major Nation. Billionaire Wilbur Ross, nominated by Donald Trump to serve as Commerce secretary, called China the most protectionist of the world’s major economies and vowed to level the playing field with the Chinese on trade, especially in reducing overcapacity in its steel industry. “China is the most protectionist country of very large countries,” Ross said in testimony on Wednesday in Washington before the Senate Commerce Committee, which will vote on his nomination. “They have both very high tariff barriers and very high non-tariff trade barriers. So they talk much more about free trade than they actually practice.”
  • Dimon Says Euro Zone May Not Survive Without Change in Direction. Europe needs to address disagreements spurring the rise of nationalist leaders or the region’s strong economic ties will break, JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said. Dimon said he hoped European Union leaders would examine what caused the U.K. to vote to leave and then make changes. That hasn’t happened, and if nationalist politicians including France’s Marine Le Pen rise to power in elections across the Continent this year, “the euro zone may not survive,” Dimon said in a Bloomberg Television interview with John Micklethwait.
  • Stoxx 600 Extends Losses, Media Sector Index Falls 2.2%. (video)
  • OPEC Chief Says ‘So Far, So Good’ on Deal to Cut Production. (video)
  • Fed Says U.S. Growth Continues Modestly as Job Market Tightens. The U.S. economy continued to expand modestly from late November through the end of 2016 as a tightening labor market helped lift wages and prices more broadly, a Federal Reserve survey showed. The central bank’s Beige Book economic report, based on information collected by regional Fed banks on or before Jan. 9, said firms and industries were optimistic about growth this year. Employment gains were characterized as slight to moderate, with most of the Fed’s 12 districts saying they expected the labor market to continue tightening.
  • U.S. Investor Optimism Highest Since Crisis as Trump Era Dawns. Moving to more of a "glass half full" view.
  • Mnuchin Tells Congress He Didn't Run a 'Foreclosure Machine' in Remarks. The U.S. economy continued to expand modestly from late November through the end of 2016 as a tightening labor market helped lift wages and prices more broadly, a Federal Reserve survey showed. The central bank’s Beige Book economic report, based on information collected by regional Fed banks on or before Jan. 9, said firms and industries were optimistic about growth this year. Employment gains were characterized as slight to moderate, with most of the Fed’s 12 districts saying they expected the labor market to continue tightening.
  • Billionaire Steyer Says There’s ‘No Limit’ on His Spending Against Trump. Tom Steyer, the billionaire environmental activist who spent at least $87 million on the 2016 election, said he can’t begin to estimate how much of his fortune he’ll put toward fighting Donald Trump’s presidency. “If you ask me can I put a limit on how much I value the health, the safety, the employment and the civil liberties of Americans, there’s no limit to what I think that’s worth,” Steyer, a Democrat, said in an interview Tuesday.
  • BIS Study Casts Doubt on ‘Ultimate Effectiveness’ of QE. Central banks might have a problem with their policies, according to their bank.
Zero Hedge:
0 comments
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)