Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as rising European/Emerging Markets/US high-yield debt angst, yen strength and protectionism worries offset oil gains, economic optimism and short-covering. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as rising European/Emerging Markets/US high-yield debt angst, yen strength and protectionism worries offset oil gains, economic optimism and short-covering. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• White House Defends Immigrant Ban as Airports Stop Travelers. President Donald Trump defended his order suspending refugee resettlements in the U.S. and barring entry to people from from Iraq, Syria and five other Middle East nations, as confusion broke out at airports around the world and government agencies and airlines tried to interpret the new rules. "It’s not a Muslim ban,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “We were totally prepared. It’s working out very nicely. You see it at the airports, you see it all over. It’s working out very nicely."

• IMF Warns Eurogroup Loan Measures Not Enough for Greek Debt. Greece’s public debt and financing needs will prove “explosive” in decades to come unless Europe overhauls its bailout program to ease the load, the International Monetary Fund says in a draft report as the country seeks a fresh loan payout. In a baseline scenario, Greece’s government debt will reach 275 percent of its gross domestic product by 2060, at which time its gross financing needs will represent 62 percent of GDP, the IMF says in the report obtained by Bloomberg. The government estimates public debt around 180 percent of GDP at present. The document also says some Greek debt proposals by euro-area finance ministers “are not specific enough to enable a full assessment” of their impact on sustainability. Finance ministers meeting in Brussels last week failed to agree on how to unlock further aid for the country, whose 86 billion-euro ($92 billion) bailout program is under review.

• ECB Must Maintain Highly Accommodative Conditions, Visco Says. The European Central Bank must maintain an accommodative stance on monetary policy to avoid deflation risks and ensure price stability, Bank of Italy Governor Ignazio Visco said. “There are as yet no clear indications of any inversion of trend in the core components driving developments in consumer prices and wage growth,” Visco, who sits on the European Central Bank Governing Council, said on Saturday in a speechat the annual Assiom-Forex conference in Modena, near Bologna. “To bring inflation back to a path consistent with medium-term price stability, monetary conditions must continue to be highly accommodative.”

• Trump Faces Growing GOP Pressure to Maintain Russia Sanctions. A group of Republicans in the U.S. Senate is intensifying calls on President Donald Trump to keep sanctions on Russia in place one day before his planned call with Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin. Republican Senator Rob Portman of Ohio and others were responding to media reports that Trump administration officials are considering taking executive actions to lift sanctions imposed on Russia in 2014 over its occupation of the Crimean peninsula in Ukraine.

• Ford(F) CEO Told Trump U.S. Fuel-Economy Rules Risk 1 Million Jobs. About 1 million U.S. jobs are at risk if fuel-economy rules don’t align with market reality, according to Ford Motor Co. Chief Executive Officer Mark Fields, who delivered the estimation directly to President Donald Trump. Fields and his peers -- General Motors Co. chief Mary Barra and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV’s Sergio Marchionne -- didn’t ask to have fuel-economy standards eliminated during their meeting with the president at the White House this week, the CEO said Friday. The focus was on combining various sets of government regulations and ensuring they take into account consumer demand.

• Trump Restrains Lobbying by Administration Veterans in Order. President Donald Trump moved to reorganize his National Security Council, implement a lobbying ban for political appointees once they exit his administration, and order the Pentagon to create a plan to defeat the Islamic State terror organization. The initiatives were signed into effect by Trump in the Oval Office on Saturday, and represented the latest in a cavalcade of presidential directives this week that included banning travelers from seven countries that Trump believes breed terrorism, building a wall along the Mexican border, and seeking ways to restrain implementation of the Affordable Care Act. Saturday’s flurry of orders capped a foreign-policy heavy day for the new president, who had calls scheduled with five foreign leaders, including Germany’s Angela Merkel and Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

• Mnuchin Dims Banks’ Hopes He Will Allow a Prop-Trading Revival. Steven Mnuchin made clear he doesn’t want Wall Street banks getting back into the business of making risky market bets with their own capital, after Senate Democrats pushed him to clarify his responses to questions they asked during his confirmation process to be Treasury secretary.

Wall Street Journal:

• Iraqis Who Aided U.S. During War Now See Visa Hopes Dim. Trump immigration ban leads to abandonment fears among Iraqis who gave the U.S. wartime assistance and now are awaiting visas.

• After Trump Order, Some Lawmakers Remain Silent, While Others Speak Out. Republican Charlie Dent says ‘the order appears to have been rushed through without full consideration of the nuances of immigration policy’.

Fox News:

• Netanyahu backs Trump's Mexico wall, touts similar one on Egypt border as 'great idea'. (video)

CNBC:

• ACLU mounts legal challenge to Trump's refugee ban, calling it 'unlawful'.

• California secession movement starts gathering petition signatures.

Zero Hedge:

• Homeland Confirms Trump Immigration Ban Will Include Green-Card Holders & Dual-Nationalities.

• Federal Reserve Bankers Mocked Unemployed Americans Behind Closed Doors.

• California Threatens To Cut Off Funds To Washington.

• Highlights From The Trump, Merkel Call: NATO, Terrorism, Mid-East Conflicts, Russian Relations.

• Homeland Security Official: "Nobody Has Any Idea What Is Going On". (video)

• The One Chart That America's Corporate Elite Don't Want You To See. (graph)

• Iran Bans US Visitors In Retaliation.

• Trump Unveils Three More Executive Orders.

• Amazon(AMZN) Enters Trillion Dollar Ocean Freight Business: How Many Jobs Will Vanish?

• "Chaos, Panic, Anger, Lawsuits" - The Fallout From Trump's Refugee Ban Begins.

• Google(GOOGL) Tells Offshore Staff To Return To The US After Trump Executive Order.

• Barron's: Next Stop Dow 30,000... On One Condition.

• Kremlin Confirms Trump-Putin Call Was "Friendly, Constructive, Mutually Beneficial", Prioritized "Fighting Terrorism".

• Obama Issued A Massive Ammunition Ban Just One Day Before He Left Office.

• Zuckerberg Slams Trump On Immigration: "We Should Keep Our Doors Open To Refugees".

• Trump Signs Executive Orders To Keep "Radical Islamic Terrorists" From Entering US,Rebuild US Military.

• Greece Is In Trouble Again: Bonds, Stocks Plunge As Bailout Talks Collapse; IMF Sees "Explosive" Debt.

• Guess Which President The Media Labels A Liar?

• Weekend Reading: Trump-eting Dow 20,000. (graph)

• Stocks Soar To Record Highs As Peso Jumps Most In A Year. (graph) 

Business Insider:

• The threat of deflation has vanished.

• White House: The US will stop China from taking over territory in international waters.

• American shale is stronger, leaner and smarter than ever before.

• Paul Singer's Elliott: '8 years of growth-repressive and distorted fiscal and monetary policies' are coming to an end.

• A border tax could lead to 'unexpected consequences' — and retailers think Americans will pay.

Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 2,293.31 +.97%*

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 2,293.31 +.97%

• DJIA 20,085.97 +1.32%

• NASDAQ 5,657.77 +1.84%

• Russell 2000 1,370.79 +1.37%

• S&P 500 High Beta 37.89 +1.75%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 121.27 +.43%

• Wilshire 5000 23,848.0 +1.04%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,094.83 +1.23%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,115.87 +.73%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 537.45 -.38%

• Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.3113 +1.34%
  

• Morgan Stanley Technology 1,306.08 +2.73%

• Transports 9,437.37 +2.29%

• Utilities 656.63 -.25%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 96.24 +2.38%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 37.28 +2.25%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,173.35 +.71%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 995.47 +.49%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 279,272 +1.15%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 756 +522

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 21.21 -44.53%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 464,678 +7.18%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,179,122 +3.05%

• Total Put/Call .97 -2.02%

• OEX Put/Call 1.55 +91.46%

• ISE Sentiment 74.0 -2.60%

• NYSE Arms 1.02 +26.58%

• Volatility(VIX) 10.53 -10.31%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.24 -7.86%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.20 -2.11%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.78 -2.18%

• Smart Money Flow Index 19,375.34 +.62%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.686 Trillion +.74%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$1.237 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 31.6 -14.7%

• AAII % Bears 33.5 +2.5%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 193.14 -.59%

• Crude Oil 52.89 +.99%

• Reformulated Gasoline 152.40 -2.67%

• Natural Gas 3.42 +3.84%

• Heating Oil 161.01 -2.47%

• Gold 1,189.0 -1.93%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 176.55 +.94%

• Copper 268.80 +2.73%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 279.33 USD/Ton +.6%

• China Iron Ore Spot 83.34 USD/Ton +3.64%

• Lumber 329.0 +.77%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,185.79 -.84%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.9% +10.0 basis points

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +11.9% -10.0 basis points
  

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .1108 -13.71%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 132.37 +.07%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 35.80 -8.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 51.0 -12.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 39.50 +1.0 point

• Fed Fund Futures imply 85.5% chance of no change 14.5% chance of 25 basis point hike on 2/1

• US Dollar Index 100.61 -.17%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,534.23 +.46%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.56 +.36%

• Yield Curve 127.0 -1.0 basis point

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.48% +1.0 basis point

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.414 Trillion -.18%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 26.55 -11.46%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 405.0 -.05%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 21.82 +5.01%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 32.46 -5.64%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 76.25 -3.14%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 70.0 +1.5%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 703.42 unch.

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 183.75 +.13%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 133.41 +.26%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.07% +3.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 53.75 -1.25 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 29.75 -2.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -37.5 +3.25 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 64.36 -2.26%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 404.0 -5.86%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 86.81 +1.29%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 235.03 -1.17%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 133.50 +.5 basis point
  

• M1 Money Supply $3.411 Trillion +.63%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 963.20 -.4%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 245,500 -1,250

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.5% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.19% +10.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 397.40 +3.98%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 45.2 unch.

• Weekly Retail Sales +.5% -10.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.29/gallon -.04/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 840.0 -9.2%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 876.10 +4.25%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 45.0 -10.0%

• Rail Freight Carloads 267,803 +1.82%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +1.4%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value +.8%

Leading Sectors

• Homebuilders +6.9%

• Computer Hardware +5.4%

• Construction +3.9%

• Semis +3.1%

• Road & Rail +3.1%

Lagging Sectors

• Energy -.6% 

• REITs -.7%

• Airlines -1.7%

• Retail -1.7%

• Oil Service -2.6%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (30)

• ATI, CRR, CDZI, MPSX, STX, IIVI, AVHI, SWKS, OLED, XXIA, RCL, BNCN, NEWR, VIRT, HZO, EXP, PNFP, ROK, SYNA, MSA, CHTR, RMD, FLW, PSTB, MGI, MDP, SHW, MRCY, CARO and MGEE

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (14)

• PETS, DISH, WHR, ENLC, VRTS, WU, CVLT, TDG, HZN, ENTL, WRLD, BMY, QCOM and VIVO

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change