Thursday, February 23, 2017

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Le Pen Says French Foreign Policy Must Be Decided in Paris. French foreign policy should be decided solely in Paris, French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen said, calling for a reversal of her country’s quest over past decades for tighter ties with European Union allies. Laying out her foreign-policy vision in a speech in Paris, Le Pen spoke of a world based on nation states that pursue their own interest and preserve their own cultures without interference.
  • Infrastructure Stocks Slump as Stimulus Not Seen Until 2018. Investors who bet Donald Trump would quickly make good on his pledge to fix the nation’s highways and bridges are being taken for a road-trip in financial markets. A basket of infrastructure-linked stocks is having its worst day since the end of June amid speculation a jam-packed political calendar will delay any stimulus program until 2018. Lawmakers are prioritizing other issues such as tax reform and the repeal and replacement of the Affordable Care Act, the news website Axios reported Thursday, citing unnamed Republican Party sources.
  • Bristol-Myers(BMY) Looms as Pharma's Next Megadeal as Activists Join. Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. was once one of the drug industry’s highest-flying companies. Now the pharmaceutical giant has gone from predator to prey, as its sagging stock price has invited in activist investors who are already forcing changes.
  • U.S. Energy Regulator Still Advancing Obama-Era Climate Guidance. In what appeared to be a belated adoption of an Obama-era directive, the U.S. energy agency responsible for approving multibillion-dollar natural gas pipeline projects has directed companies to start disclosing potential climate change impacts. On Wednesday, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commissionposted a new manual on environmental reporting, updating its guidance for the first time since 2002. The two-volume, 470-page handbook advises project developers to include in their applications potential greenhouse-gas emissions, a cause of global warming that President Barack Obama said the agency should start taking into account in reviews. A previous version of the manual doesn’t mentioned climate change.
  • Social Media Are Driving Americans Insane. Almost half say they are “constant checkers.” If you pull out your phone to check Twitter while waiting for the light to change, or read e-mails while brushing your teeth, you might be what the American Psychological Association calls a “constant checker.” And chances are, it’s hurting your mental health.
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
Washington Post:

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth -.8%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Steel -4.5% 2) Construction -2.0% 3) Networking -1.9%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • LB, JACK, WB, GTLS, ARRS, EPC, IDCC, W, SINA, SLCA, BSFT, QEP, OUT, BLCM, HRL, TSLA, EME, APA, SM, COMM, CMC, BSFT, NSM, LZB, ICPT, X, NVDA and CLF
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) BKLN 2) RRC 3) SQ 4) ZNGA 5) HPQ
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) LB 2) LE 3) JACK 4) SAM 5) SAH
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value +.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service +1.2% 2) Drugs +1.2% 3) Computer Hardware +1.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • PPH, SQ, KEM, UCTT, TELL, CRI, FSLR, CTRP, AVDL, AMCX, TREE, PRAH, COTV, GIL, GDOT, ESPR, VAC, VSAR, ZBRA, DOOR, ATHM, HPQ, TNC, PF, PI, NLS, BEAT, TILE, GBT, ANSS, CTRL, PF and AMCX
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) SMH 2) OCN 3) DE 4) KMX 5) SGMS
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) HPQ 2) SQ 3) MYGN 4) TRIP 5) IFF
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.25 -2.75 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 25.5 -.75 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.60 -.03%
  • S&P 500 futures -.05%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (APA)/.07
  • (AAWW)/2.25
  • (CRI)/1.67
  • (CHK)/.06
  • (CM)/2.59
  • (ICPT)/-3.68
  • (KSS)/1.33
  • (SAFM)/1.18
  • (SHLD)/-2.85
  • (SFM)/.13
  • (TK)/-.09
  • (TTC)/.36
  • (VC)/1.31
  • (BIDU)/1.06
  • (CECO)/-.06
  • (GPS)/.51
  • (HLF)/.97
  • (INTU)/.25
  • (JWN)/1.15
  • (ZOES)/-.06
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January is estimated to fall to 0.0 versus .14 in December.
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 240K versus 239K prior.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2068K versus 2076K the prior week.  
9:00 am EST
  • The FHFA House Price Index MoM for December is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.5% gain in November.
11:00 am EST
  • The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for February is estimated at 9.0 versus 9.0 in January.
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +3,438,890 barrels versus a +9,527,000 barrel build the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,533,330 barrels versus a +2,846,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,033,330 barrels versus a -689,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.01% versus a -2.3% decline prior. 
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Lockhart speaking, German GDP report, $28B 7Y T-Note auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Profit-Taking, Oil Decline, Yen Strength, Commodity/Restaurant Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Slightly Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 11.77 +1.73%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.81 +.23%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.75 +.1%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 45.42 +2.3%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 62.0 -8.82%
  • Total Put/Call .87 +6.1%
  • NYSE Arms 1.25 +78.57%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.56 -.37%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 369.0 -1.23%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 93.90 +.75%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 22.64 +3.0%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 25.68 -2.65%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 217.90 +.83%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 134.70 -.08%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 34.50 -1.75 basis points
  • TED Spread 52.25 -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -28.25 -2.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.64 +.30%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .52% unch.
  • Yield Curve 119.0 -3.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $94.30/Metric Tonne -.59%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 47.40 -.4 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 71.90 +4.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 46.60 +5.2 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.05 +3.0 basis points
  • 61.8% chance of Fed rate hike at May 3 meeting, 76.1% chance at June 14 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -19 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +1 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lowr: On losses in my in my biotech/retail sector longs 
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long