Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -2.0%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Steel -3.0% 2) Internet -2.9% 3) Oil Service -2.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• MFGP, DM, FB, DXR, OLED, SGH, MZOR, CARB, CWH, KLAC, SEP, SGH, SAIL and TISI

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) IMGN 2) SIG 3) SIRI 4) KEY 5) RSX

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) OLED 2) DM 3) OTIC 4) IPHI 5) ANET

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -1.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Paper +1.0% 2) Education +.3% 3) Gold & Silver -.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ORBK, HRTX, STC, PAR, RKDA, LFIN, EYE, CSIQ, TCP, AQUA, KIRK, FNF, BKHU, BXC, JKS, CMCM, REDU, AXGN, GTHX, DPS, APEI, BCS, MSBI and ZUMZ

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) MGM 2) ASH 3) EMR 4) ORCL 5) MON

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) HRTX 2) PIRS 3) ORBK 4) JAZZ 5) LMT

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -22.5% Below 100-Day Average
• 0 Sectors Rising, 10 Sectors Declining
• 19.6% of Issues Advancing, 77.2% Declining
• 21 New 52-Week Highs, 79 New Lows
• 48.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.9%
• Vix 17.5 +10.4%
• Total Put/Call .94 -2.1%
• TRIN/Arms 1.11 +47.8%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Japan's February Exports Grow 1.8% as Trade Recovery Continues. (video) A continued growth in exports suggest the global recovery remains firm. Yet a stronger yen poses some risks, making imports cheaper, weighing on inflation and cutting into exporters’ profits. The risk of a trade war due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs is another potential source of downside pressure on Japan’s economy.

• Russia Is This Week’s Emerging-Market Focus as the G-20 Meets on Trade. Emerging-market investors are bracing for further fallout from allegations Russia was behind a nerve-agent attack in the U.K., overshadowing an election that’s expected to extend Vladimir Putin’s tenure as the Kremlin’s longest-serving leader since Josef Stalin. Elsewhere, traders will be rooting for Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers to find ways to avoid a global trade war when they meet in Argentina on Monday and Tuesday, while Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting should provide guidance on the path of U.S. monetary policy. Bloomberg Economics estimates a trade war could chop $470 billion from the global economy by 2020.

• Asia Stocks Start Week Mixed as Traders Eye Fed: Markets Wrap. Stock benchmarks nudged lower in Japan and Korea, and rose in Australia, while futures signaled gains in Hong Kong. Investors are assessing the implications of a new head at China’s central bank, after the Wall Street Journal reportedthat Yi Gang was named to run the PBOC. Trade tensions remain in focus as U.S. Treasury official David Malpass said he misspoke hours after claiming the U.S. was pulling out of decade-old formal economic talks with Beijing. The dollar made modest gains against major peers for a third day, while bond yields rose. Japan’s Topix index fell 0.2 percent and the Nikkei 225 Stock Average traded down about 0.3 percent as of 9:20 a.m. in Tokyo. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.2 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index lost 0.2 percent. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed 0.3 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 Index were flat.

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (video)

• Death of Iran's Nuclear Deal Could Set Oil Bulls Loose.

• CACI(CACI) Is Said to Top General Dynamics(GD) Bid for CSRA, WSJ Says.

• Bond Traders' March Fed Guide: Beware the Four-Hike Hype So Soon.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Facebook(FB) Ignites Debate Over Third-Party Access to User Data. It says that a firm kept data for years despite saying records were destroyed.

• The Next Housing Crisis: A Historic Shortage of New Homes. Fewer new houses are being built in America than at almost any time before; ‘It’s a good time to be here in Grand Rapids, if you can get a house’.

• Trump Steps Up Attacks on Mueller Investigation. President also jabs at former FBI deputy director Andrew McCabe.

• Trade Associations to Petition Trump Administration to Halt China-Tariff Plans. Imposing tariffs ‘would trigger a chain reaction of negative consequences for the U.S. economy,’ groups say in letter. 

• Congress Braces for Battle Over Massive Spending Bill. Party leaders begin setting terms of debate on Obamacare subsidies, immigration enforcement, tax provisions and infrastructure.

• With Grip on Power Assured, China’s Xi Elevates Lieutenants. President, inner circle look to shore up a sluggish economy, eradicate poverty and enhance country’s global standing amid threat of trade war with U.S.

• Trump’s Opioid Battle Plan Includes Seeking More Death-Penalty Prosecutions. The president will ask the Justice Department to press more cases against drug traffickers under current law.

• Oil Hedge Fund BBL Looks to Launch $1 Billion Macro Fund. Firm says work on oil and other commodities gives it a unique view into global trends.

MarketWatch.com:

• This political-risk gauge just hit a 15-year high — and here’s what it means for the stock market.

• What to expect from the new Fed dot plot on interest rates.

• Stock bears hibernate as optimism jumps across the economy.

• Zscaler shares more than double after IPO as CEO touts cloud-based security.

• Warning, crypto investors: You must pay taxes on your bitcoin.

• These companies jumped on the bitcoin train right before it derailed. (graph)

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (AGN), (TDOC), (ATHN) and (GPS).

Fox News: 

• Paul denounces ‘disgraceful’ ex-CIA chief Brennan over anti-Trump tirade. (video)

• Trump to seek death penalty for some drug traffickers in plan to fight opioid crisis. (video)

• Some officials wanted Stoneman Douglas suspect Nikolas Cruz committed in 2016, documents show. (video)

CNBC: 

• Exit poll say that Vladimir Putin has won the presidential election with more than 70 percent of the vote: AP.

• Washington turmoil has bull ‘limping’ but S&P at 3,000 still looks likely: RBC. (video)

• Facebook(FB) is facing its biggest test ever -- and its lack of leadership could sink the company.

• China and Germany agree to work on steel overcapacity following US tariffs.

• This 3-D printed electric car costs $7,500 and took three days to make. (video)

• President of Steven Cohen’s Investment Firm Quits Amid Gender Bias Lawsuit.

• Chinese search giant Baidu's video streaming unit iQiyi launches $2.4 billion US IPO.

• Uncertainty is the biggest headwind facing the market, money manager Douglas Gordon says. (video)

Zero Hedge:

• McCabe Bailout: Dozens GoFundMe Campaigns Launched; Dem Congressman Offers Job For Full Pension.

• Cambridge Analytica Denies Facebook(FB) Data Abuses: "This Isn't A Spy Movie".

• US Ends Formal Economic Talks With China Ahead Of Trade Wars.

• Bitcoin Battered To Fresh Lows After Twitter Joins Crypto Ad Ban. (graph)

• In Angry Tweetstorm, Trump Accuses Comey Of Perjury, Slams McCabe "Fake Memo", Assails Mueller Team.

• China Unexpectedly Names Yi Gang As Next Central Bank Chief.

• This Is What The CIA's Venture Capital Fund Is Investing In Now.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.75% to -.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.50 -.75 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 11.5 unch.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 74.95 -.08%. 

• FTSE 100 futures -.40%.

• S&P 500 futures -.30%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.53%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

• (CSIQ)/.95

• (ORCL)/.72

Economic Releases

• None of note
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Trade Balance report and the Japan Trade Balance report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters. 

• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.

• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as oil gains, economic optimism and less US/European/Emerging Markets debt angst offset higher long-term rates, technical selling and yen strength. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 2,752.01 -1.24%

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

 
Indices

• DJIA 24,946.51 -1.54%

• NASDAQ 7,481.99 -1.04%

• Russell 2000 1,586.05 -.70%

• S&P 500 High Beta 44.70 -1.35%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 146.89 +.41%

• Wilshire 5000 28,505.36 -1.14%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,434.88 -1.08%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,219.16 -1.28%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 548.78 -2.12%

• Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.6341 +.04%
  

• NYSE Technology 1,938.21 -.48%

• Transports 10,683.82 -.52%

• Utilities 691.82 +2.91%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 98.54 -.15%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 49.32 -.78%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,300.41 -.48%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,014.62 +.27%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 315,574 -.19%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -24 -280

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 33.33 +66.7%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 668,533 -2.62%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,403,162 -1.97%

• Total Put/Call .96 +18.52%

• OEX Put/Call 1.10 +161.90%

• ISE Sentiment 80.0 -21.67%

• NYSE Arms .75 +19.0%

• Volatility(VIX) 15.80 +7.92%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 43.01 +8.33%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.82 +3.58% 

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.86 +1.68%

• Smart Money Flow Index 18,576.19 -4.04%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.820 Trillion -1.32%

• ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$11.000 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 36.8 +39.6%

• AAII % Bears 21.3 -24.8%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 194.46 -.36%

• Crude Oil 62.34 +.35%

• Reformulated Gasoline 194.59 +2.49%

• Natural Gas 2.69 -1.07%

• Heating Oil 191.18 +1.34%

• Gold 1,312.30 -.88%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 205.90 +1.21%

• Copper 310.75 -1.18%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 328.33 USD/Metric Tonne +3.14%

• China Iron Ore Spot 67.10 USD/Metric Tonne -1.69%

• Lumber 489.10 +1.05%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,036.86 -.71%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.8% -70.0 basis points

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 5.6% -10.0 basis points
  

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .1423 -2.93% 

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 80.14 -55.14%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 160.36 n/a

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 45.80 -2.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -31.7 -10.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 39.30 +7.6 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0% chance of no change, 100.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 3/21

• US Dollar Index 90.23 +.14%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,717.34 -.04%

• Bitcoin/USD 8,524.17 -5.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.66 -.91%

• Yield Curve 55.25 -7.5 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.85% -4.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.367 Trillion +.26%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 21.83 +8.23%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 252.55 -.03%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 141.25 +5.0 basis points

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 11.35 -2.66%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 34.17 +1.79%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 49.02 -.37%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 45.5 +4.88%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 108.42 +4.96%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 148.41 +.22%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.08% -5.0 basis points

• TED Spread 40.75 +.5 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 32.25 +2.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.5 +6.0 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 53.89 -1.71%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 398.0 -.51%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 51.84 +2.51%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 118.82 +4.7%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 167.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• M1 Money Supply $3.677 Trillion +1.61%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,080.90 -1.20%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 221,500 -1,000

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.3% unch.
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.44% -2.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 387.40 +.86%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 56.2 -.6 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +2.90% -50.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.53/gallon unch.

• Baltic Dry Index 1,150.0 -4.25%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 809.75 -2.54%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 16.50 -5.71%

• Rail Freight Carloads 278,207 -.48%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -.4%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value -1.3%

Leading Sectors

• Coal +4.2%

• Utilities +2.9%

• Papers +2.2%

• Airlines +1.5%

• Restaurants +1.4%

Lagging Sectors

• Industrials -2.4% 

• Banks -2.7%

• Tobacco -2.8%

• Agriculture -3.0%

• Defense -3.3%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (31)

• BXC, LFIN, SNDX, ASNS, LOOP, MRSN, CTRN, SMTC, REV, CTWS, CASA, APLS, NTRA, AVD, DSW, PETQ, CARB, ZUMZ, CAL, JBL, DKS, AVYA, NMRK, AVA, SHEN, EFII, BXG, DNLI, RDNT, IDA and AGS

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (34)

• MDP, QTRX, NINE, RPD, CTT, HGV, TORC, EYE, TTWO, SBT, BL, MANT, SFIX, TTEC, AQUA, BHVN, RAVN, HONE, SCPH, TLYS, AMWD, TACO, MTG, ESNT, RYTM, MLNT, RDN, TISI, MDGL, ODT, SIG, STML, ARNA and NTLA

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change