Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Diminishing Tade War Worries, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Stable Long-Term Rates, Retail/Energy Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.4 -1.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.52 -.11%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.18 +.59%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 31.08 +.16%

• ISE Sentiment Index 173.0 +49.1%
  

• Total Put/Call .93 +3.33%

• NYSE Arms 1.22 +29.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.32 -2.40%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 379.0 -1.75%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 76.88 -2.57%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 221.0 -5.75 basis points
  

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 13.60 -4.93%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 174.49 -1.41%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 147.96 +.02%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 22.5 -1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 37.25 -1.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75-.5 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.71 +.09%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.96% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 25.0 -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 63.38 USD/Metric Tonne -.13%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.90 -1.0 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -35.0 +.6 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.0 +1.0 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.12 +1.0 basis point
  
• 86.2% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 26th meeting, 87.0% chance at November 8th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -22 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -29 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -13 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/biotech/medical/retail sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Agriculture -.7% 2) Gold & Silver -.6% 3) Internet -.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• NVRO, MYOV, PEGI, INGR, CTMX and TREE

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) GRPN 2) OPK 3) SYF 4) YELP 5)DNR

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) INGR 2) PEGI 3) JNJ 4) TWTR 5) LB

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +1.1% 2) Retail +1.1% 3) Airlines +1.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• BIOC, GLMD, NGVC, FNKO, ZGNX, KB, OBSV, RDHL, BLFS, CBD, MORN, SEND, DGLD, MNRO, PNC, ITGR, JBHT, RH, NSTG, PAGS, FUN, HZO, WWE, CATO and SLP

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ON 2) ZION 3) PNC 4) CMI 5) ISRG

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) BIOC 2) DRQ 3) HRI 4) ITGR 5) UTX

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -19.3% Below 100-Day Average
• 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 58.2% of Issues Advancing, 37.4% Declining
• 82 New 52-Week Highs, 17 New Lows
• 49.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.0%
• Vix 12.4 -1.8%
• Total Put/Call .85 -5.6%
• TRIN/Arms 1.70 +82.0%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Trump Says May's Brexit Plan Likely to Kill Off U.S. Trade Deal.

• Cheating Isn’t Going to Help China Win.

• China's Rising Defaults Bring More Safeguards to Yuan Bonds.

• Asian Stocks to Follow U.S. Gains; Dollar Slips. Asian stocks looked set to track gains in U.S. equities as China refrained from hitting back at the Trump administration on trade and investors awaited the start of earnings season and Chinese export data. The dollar slipped. Futures signaled higher starts for stocks in Japan, Australia and Hong Kong. Technology shares led gains in the U.S. as the Nasdaq 100 Index hit a fresh high and the S&P 500 climbed to within 3 percent of its record. The dollar dropped against most peers after U.S. consumer prices rose less than forecast in June, while 10-year Treasury yields were little changed. West Texas crude remained close to $70 a barrel. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 advanced 0.5 percent in Singapore. Futures on Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.4 percent. Hang Seng futures climbed 0.5 percent.  

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

• JPMorgan, Wells Fargo May Go Back to Basics With Loans in Focus.  

• Citadel Hedge Funds Jump 8.8%, Extending Hot Streak.

Wall Street Journal:

• From Seafood to Mattresses: How the U.S. Tariffs Affect Businesses.

• Trump Commits to NATO, Pushes Allies on Defense Spending. 

• Activist Investors Turn Up Heat in Drive for Returns.

• All Ears: Always-On Listening Devices Could Soon Be Everywhere.

MarketWatch.com:

• Extreme fear will actually keep the U.S. stock market grinding higher.

Fox News:

• Shouting match on the Hill after Gohmert blasts 'smirking' Strzok, asks about infidelity at hearing.

• Jason Chaffetz: Lisa Page snubs Hill subpoena thanks to attorney general.

CNBC:    

• Nasdaq rises to all-time high as Amazon and Facebook hit records.  

• Fed's Powell says economy is in 'good place' but tariffs could change that.

• President Trump says Boris Johnson would 'make a great prime minister'.

• Trump's tariffs are unlikely to cause a recession because they are leaving the most important part of the economy alone.

• Nvidia and Netflix produced top shareholder returns over past five years, BCG study shows.

• Apple announces $300 million clean energy fund in China. 

• After-hours buzz: T, MCD and more. 

• The S&P 500 should pass 2,800 after Friday's earnings: Investor.

• 7 fast-food chains to end 'no poach' deals that lock down low-wage workers.

Zero Hedge:

• In Bombshell Interview, Trump Slams Theresa May Hours Ahead Of Meetin

• All Hell Breaks Loose After Gohmert Asks Strzok About "Looking Into His Wife's Eyes" While Lying About Lisa Page.  

• Watch Live: Hearing Devolves Into Chaos After Strzok Refuses To Answer Questions.

• SEC Investigating Why Facebook Didn't Disclose Cambridge Analytica Data Breach.

• US Blasts China, Russia Over Sneaky Oil Sales To North Korea; Urges UN Action.

• Justice Department Defies Judge To Appeal AT&T-Time Warner Merger Approval.

• US Budget Deficit Hits $607 Billion In 9 Months, As Spending On Interest Explodes.

• Trade Tumult Sparks Safe-Haven Bid For US Bonds & Mega-Cap Tech Stocks.

Business Insider:

• Republicans will hold a vote on abolishing ICE — forcing Democrats to show their hand.

Telegraph:  

• Comment: The EU is threatening to destroy the UK economy – but will only bring a doomloop that guarantees its own ruin.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 91.75 -2.25 basis points. 

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 14.25 -.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.62 -.03%.

• FTSE 100 futures +.41%.

• S&P 500 futures +.14%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.20%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:

• (C)/1.56

• (JPM)/2.22

• (PNC)/2.58

• (WFC)/1.12

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST

• The Import Price Index MoM for June is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.6% gain in May.

• The Export Price Index MoM for June is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.6% gain in May.

10:00 am EST

• The Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment Index for July is estimated to fall to 98.0 versus 98.2 in June.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bostic Speaking and the China Trade Data report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and healthcare shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Diminishing Trade War Worries, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Economic Optimism, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.77 -6.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.60 +.40%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.29 +2.69%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 32.10 -3.37%

• ISE Sentiment Index 139.0 +73.75%
  

• Total Put/Call .80 -21.57%

• NYSE Arms .85 -43.91%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.68 -.81%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 386.0 -.59%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 79.0 -3.29%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 226.75 -5.5 basis points
  

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 14.31 -2.79%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 177.12 -1.56%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 147.93 -.14%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 23.5 unch.

• TED Spread 38.75 +2.0 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.25 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.59 +.34%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.97% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 26.0 -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 63.72 USD/Metric Tonne +.11%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.90 +1.0 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -35.60 +.6 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.0 -2.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.11 -1.0 basis point
  
• 87.9% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 26th meeting, 88.2% chance at November 8th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +147 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -27 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +1 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/biotech/tech/medical sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long