Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value unch.

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +2.2% 2) Airlines +1.4% 3) Agriculture +1.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SIR, ARGX, OBSV, AIMC, CSBR, NI, KLXI, UBX, CLNC, FF, AIR, COLD, MBUU, NVTA, TEVA, SHLO, WAB, CGC, RDNT, BBBY, SPA, PRQR, TGS, IIIV, CWH and CDAY

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) KHC 2) AXTA 3) CI 4) BBBY 5) XME

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) BBBY 2) LULU 3) ORCL 4) GD 5) AVGO

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -9.1% Below 100-Day Average
• 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 48.3% of Issues Advancing, 47.1% Declining
• 54 New 52-Week Highs, 52 New Lows
• 50.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.5%
• Vix 12.6 +4.3%
• Total Put/Call .97 +18.3%
• TRIN/Arms .60 -34.1%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:          

• The Emerging Market Rout Is Nearing a Turning Point, Templeton Says 

• Macau Casinos to Reopen After Brief, if Costly, Typhoon Shutdown.

• Asia Stocks Slip as Trade Concerns Resurface. Stocks in Asia kicked off the week under pressure after the latest U.S. move to place a further tranche of tariffs on Chinese goods. The dollar maintained gains. Shares in South Korea and Australia edged lower, while futures on equity indexes in Hong Kong and China signaled declines. Japanese markets are closed for a holiday. President Donald Trump instructed aides to proceed with tariffs on about $200 billion more in Chinese products. The S&P 500 Index finished flat on Friday as financial and energy shares rose, while the 10-year Treasury yield hit 3 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index lost 0.2 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.2 percent. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slid 1.1 percent in late Friday trading. Futures on the FTSE China A50 Index lost 1 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 were down 0.2 percent.    

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

• Trump's $200B, Chinese Fertility, Economic Nationalism: Eco Day.

• Dimon Rules Out a Run in 2020, Regrets ‘Machismo’ in Trump Snub   

• Trump Texts Are Headed to U.S. Phones in Test of Alert System.

Wall Street Journal:  

• How Big Storms Affect the Economy.

• It’s Not All Tech. Small Stocks Power the Market Higher.

• U.S., China Ramp Up Trade Threats.

• Gas Explosions Traced to Too Much Pressure in Pipes.

• Koch-Funded Gyms Help Opioid Addicts Recover.

MarketWatch.com:

• Salesforce(CRM) co-founder Marc Benioff and his wife buy Time magazine for $190 million.

• Kroger(KR) results show that Walmart(WMT) and Target(TGT) are taking bigger pieces of the grocery market.

CNBC:

• Blackstone billionaire: I don't see an economic downturn anywhere on the horizon.

• Former Obama administration official: Trump is addressing 'longstanding' trade issues.

• The bond market is beginning to believe the Fed is serious about two more rate hikes this year. 

• Emerging markets are being roiled, but PNC's top market watcher doesn't see spillover in the US. 

• Wall Street pros develop fantasy NFL game that allows users to trade athletes like stocks.

Zero Hedge:          

• China Real Estate Crackdown: New Home Prices Accelerate To Two-Year High.

• CNN Ratings Collapse, Losing To Nickelodeon And Fox News. 

• Democrats Demand Suspension Of Kavanaugh Confirmation Until "Serious And Credible Allegations" Investigated.

• For The First Time In 10 Years, Companies Have Spent More On Buybacks Than CapEx.

• Next Phase Of Florence Disaster Arrives: "Catastrophic" River Floods, Massive Mudslides.

• Amazon Employees Investigated Over Suspected Black Market For Information, Favors.

• "We're Going To Unmask You": James O'Keefe Set To Expose Deep State With New Investigation.

• China May Skip Trade Talks, Cripple US Supply Chains After New Trump Tariffs. 

Business Insider:

• Photos and videos show the flooding and devastation as Hurricane Florence hits the Carolinas.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.5% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.5 -1.0 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 12.25 unch.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.97 -.04%.

• FTSE 100 futures -.31%

• S&P 500 futures -.21%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.23%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close:

• (FDX)/3.83

• (ORCL)/.68

Economic Releases

8:30 pm EST

• Empire Manufacturing for September is estimated to fall to 23.0 versus 25.6 in August.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone CPI report, Janney Montgomery Scott Healthcare Conference and the (BABA) Investor Day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters. 
• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as technical buying, economic optimism and short-covering offset trade war fears, emerging markets currency/debt angst and profit-taking. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:     

• China’s Home Prices Rose at Fastest Pace in Almost Two Years.   

• ECB's Villeroy Sees Risks From Shadow Banking, Emerging Markets. 

• Retail Sales, Factory Output Signal Steady U.S. Economic Growth.

• Florence Causes Catastrophic Flooding in the Carolinas.

• Keeping Skies Safe in the Age of the Drones.

• 10 Years After Lehman’s Collapse, a Trader and His Customer Share Their Story.

Wall Street Journal:

• Cord-Cutters Beware: Streaming TV Prices Are Marching Higher.

• 50 Elements of Style: Your Fall Guide.

• Back to the ’80s? No, It’s Spring Fashion.

• U.N. Panel Reports That North Korea Is Violating Sanctions.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (ALL), (SUM), (VMC), (MLM), (OBSV) and (TRV).

Fox News:

• Tropical storm weakens as it mercilessly drenches Carolinas, leaves thousands in the dark.

• Reporter captured swaying in Florence - as 2 people stroll by behind him.

CNBC:  

• There's a good chance 'sanity will prevail' in US-China tariff battle, says UBS chairman. 

• This new luggage scanner could speed up security lines and let you keep everything in your carry-on.  

• Homeowners are sitting on $6 trillion in available cash, but they're not tapping it.  

• Florence lumbers inland, leaving 7 dead, communities flooded.

Zero Hedge:

• Trump To Announce $200 Billion In New China Tariffs As Soon As Monday.

• Dramatic Footage Of Florence Devastation; 600K Without Power; Fatalities Reported.

• Bezos: Trump's Attacks On The Press Are "Dangerous".

• "They Just Evacuated Us": Conspiracy Theories Run Wild After FBI Shuts Down Solar Observatory.

• Seth Klarman: These Are The 20 Forgotten Lessons From The 2008 Crisis.

• NFL Hell Continues As Ratings Crater For Dallas Cowboys. 

• Politicians Warn Spy Chief: There Is A New Threat Called "Deep Fakes".

• China Pressures Wall Street To Intervene In Trade Fight.

• The Mueller Investigation Is Sending People to Jail - But Not For Collusion.

• Florence May Be Costliest Storm In US History At $170 Billion In Damage.

• Visualizing The AI-mazing Patent Race.

• Pompeo Tears Into John Kerry Over Iran Meetings: "Unheard Of" Level Of Undermining White House.

• Glenn Greenwald: The Mainstream Media's "Allowed List" Of "Real Reporters".

• "Lower For Longer": Yellen Urges Fed To Commit To "Booms" To Offset Crashes.

• San Fran Fed Appoints First Openly Gay Woman As New President.

• Massive Deficit Spending Greenlights Waste, Fraud, Profiteering and Dysfunction.

• Weekend Reading: A Permanent Shift To Valuations?

• US Stocks Rally, Shrug Off Treasury Curve Crumble, Macro Data Dump. 

Business Insider:

• A thermometer of the goods-based economy is slowing down.

• How laws and regulations are shaping the development of the drone industry around the world.

• More millennials feel pressured to be perfect — and it's causing a huge spike in depression, anorexia and suicide.

The Telegraph:

• The euro as a global reserve currency? Dream on.

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 2,903.09 +1.07%

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

 
Indices

• DJIA 26,140.50 +.79%

• NASDAQ 8,012.58 +1.32%

• Russell 2000 1,724.08 +.53%

• S&P 500 High Beta 44.89 +1.79%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 173.09 +1.89%

• Wilshire 5000 30,183.10 +1.07%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,558.64 +1.45%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,250.81 +.76%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 560.07 +.54%

• Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.6518 +1.31%
  

• NYSE Technology 1,900.11 +2.02%

• Transports 11,567.70 +1.97%

• Utilities 736.65 +.28%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 84.86 +1.36%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 42.11 +.72%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,257.13 -.12%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,005.49 +.31%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 332,672 +.17%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 106 +292

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 45.83 +70.3%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 565,730 +2.8%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,303,047 +2.77%

• Total Put/Call .78 -31.9%

• OEX Put/Call .30 -47.46%

• ISE Sentiment 119.0 +2.69%

• NYSE Arms .84 +15.71%

• Volatility(VIX) 12.05 -19.1%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 34.93 -11.03%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.63 -3.17% 

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.97 -7.1%

• Smart Money Flow Index 16,366.05 -.21%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.881 Trillion +.01%

• ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$7.001 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 32.1 -24.0%

• AAII % Bears 32.8 +24.9%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 190.36 +.06%

• Crude Oil 68.96 +1.61%

• Reformulated Gasoline 197.22 -.16%

• Natural Gas 2.76 -.40%

• Heating Oil 221.03 -.47%

• Gold 1,195.30 -.08%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 179.74 +.08%

• Copper 262.10 +.13%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 321.67 USD/Metric Tonne unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 68.92 USD/Metric Tonne +1.37%

• Lumber 370.0 -3.27%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 909.44 -.77%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +4.43% +7.0 basis points

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 0.0% +20.0 basis points
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 15.0% unch.

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .1936 -4.25%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 74.69 -10.1%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 173.06 +.26%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -8.50 -4.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -13.60 -17.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.6 -4.3 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 2.5% chance of no change, 97.5% chance of 25 basis point hike on 9/26

• US Dollar Index 94.92 -.44%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,586.75 +.11%

• Bitcoin/USD 6,474.01 -.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.51 +1.66%

• Yield Curve 20.75 -3.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.98% +4.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.171 Trillion +.06%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 20.47 -2.38%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 189.86 -.03%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 253.25 -11.5 basis points

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 12.10 -3.44%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 126.29 -22.5%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 75.03 +7.74%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 38.17 -4.56%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 164.45 -7.79%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 151.18 -.15%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.11% unch.

• TED Spread 19.0 -.75 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 17.50 -1.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.0 -1.75 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 55.51 -7.3%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 400.0 -4.58%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 68.36 -9.95%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 206.73 -8.78%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 180.0 unch.
  

• M1 Money Supply $3.840 Trillion +3.68%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,067.10 +.10%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 208,000 -1,500

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.60% +6.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 337.40 -1.78%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 59.0 +1.0 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +6.30% +110.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.85/gallon unch.

• Baltic Dry Index 1,382.0 -7.25%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 856.06 n/a

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 22.50 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 248,915 -13.43%

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth +1.4%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +.1%

Leading Sectors

• Software +3.6%

• Telecom +3.6%

• Oil Service +3.1%

• Medical Equipment +2.8%

• Gaming +2.4%

Lagging Sectors

• Education -.4% 

• Paper -.7%

• REITs -.9%

• Restaurants -1.4%

• Banks -2.2%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (7)

• AMD, PI, HDP, BRC, AVAV, PUMP and GDOT

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (6)

• RRR, PVTL, NVRO, PGTI, NTRA and WAB

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change