Tuesday, August 06, 2019

Morning Market Internals

Posted by Gary .....at 10:56 AM
NYSE Composite Index:
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Monday, August 05, 2019

Tuesday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 8:24 PM
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -2.25% to -1.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.75 +4.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 56.25 +1.75 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  65.95 -.06%.
  • S&P 500 futures -1.59%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -1.77%.

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:
  • (AGN)/4.34
  • (BDX)/3.06
  • (DF)/-.17
  • (DISCA)/.99
  • (DUK)/.98
  • (EMR)/.94
  • (ENR)/.46
  • (EXPD)/.81
  • (JLL)/2.33
  • (MOS)/.29
  • (PBI)/.17
  • (REGN)/5.42
  • (SAGE)/-3.35
  • (ZTS)/.82
After the Close:
  • (ANDE)/.62
  • (HTZ)/.50
  • (MTCH)/.43
  • (MCHP)/1.38
  • (PZZA)/.30
  • (DIS)/1.74
  • (WYNN)/1.39
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • JOLTS Job Openings for June is estimated to rise to 7326 versus 7323 in May.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The German Factory Orders report, $38B 3Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, UBS Financial Services Conference, Oppenheimer Tech/Internet/Communications Conference, Jefferies Industrials Conference, Canaccord Growth Conference and the (ORLY) analyst day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open sharply lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.
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Sunday, August 04, 2019

Monday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 10:42 PM
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -2.0% to -1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.75 +3.0 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 50.0 +4.0 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.27 -.28%.
  • FTSE 100 futures -.93%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.72%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.94%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

 Before the Open:
  • (CARS)/.43
  • (DO)/-.88
  • (JEC)/1.24
  • (L)/.75
  • (SOHU)/-1.15
After the Close:
  • (CAR)/.73
  • (CZR)/-.05
  • (KLAC)/1.75
  • (MAR)/1.56
  • (SHAK)/.23
  • (TTWO)/.04
  • (THC)/.44
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for July is estimated to rise to 55.5 versus 55.1 in June.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The China Services/Manufacturing PMI reports and the Commerce Dept. Hearing for $21B in EU tariffs could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.
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Weekly Outlook

Posted by Gary .....at 10:06 PM
BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, technical selling and China trade deal concerns offset earnings optimism, short-covering and bargain-hunting. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.
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Thursday, August 01, 2019

Friday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 9:25 PM
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 62.0 +4.0 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 45.75 +5.75 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  66.67 -.02%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.27%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.41%.

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:
  • (AXL)/.57
  • (CVX)/1.82
  • (XOM)/.73
  • (HMC)/117.85
  • (ITT)/.89
  • (LYB)/2.84
  • (NWL)/.36
  • (STX)/.84
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for July is estimated to fall to 165K versus 224K in June. 
  • The Unemployment Rate for July is estimated to fall to 3.6% versus 3.7% in June.
  • Average Hourly Earnings MoM for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in June.
  • The Trade Balance for June is estimated at -$54.6B versus -$55.5B in May.
10:00 am EST
  • Factory Orders for June are estimated to rise +.7% versus a -.7% decline in May.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone PPI report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
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Tuesday, July 30, 2019

Wednesday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 9:27 PM
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 58.0 -.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 40.0 +.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  67.33 -.01%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.18%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.37%.

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:
  • (AMT)/1.74
  • (APTV)/1.14
  • (ADP)/1.13
  • (BLMN)/.35
  • (BG)/.33
  • (CME)/1.76
  • (FCAU)/.60
  • (GE)/.12
  • (HES)/-.12
  • (HUM)/5.27
  • (JCI)/.62
  • (TAP)/1.65
  • (SMG)/2.74
  • (SPG)/2.99
  • (SSYS)/.15
After the Close:
  • (AMED)/.99
  • (APA)/.14
  • (AVB)/2.31
  • (CF)/.82
  • (CAKE)/.81
  • (CRUS)/.15
  • (CTSH)/.92
  • (ESV)/-1.28
  • (ETH)/.48
  • (HCP)/.43
  • (H)/.46
  • (KTOS)/.06
  • (LRCX)/3.43
  • (MCK)/3.01
  • (MET)/1.34
  • (OI)/.76
  • (PPC)/.60
  • (PRU)/3.22
  • (QCOM)/.77
  • (SKYW)/1.59
  • (TDOC)/-.41
  • (TWLO)/.02
  • (WDC)/.19
  • (WMB)/.23
Economic Releases
8:15 am EST
  • The ADP Employment Change for July is estimated to rise to 150K versus 102K in June.
8:30 am EST
  • The 2Q Employment Cost Index is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +.7% gain in 1Q.
9:45 am EST
  • The MNI Chicago PMI report for July is estimated to rise to 51.0 versus 49.7 in June.
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,739,250 barrels versus a -10,835,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,481,270 barrels versus a -226,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +769,520 barrels versus a +613,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.74% versus a -1.3% decline prior.
2:00 pm EST
  • The FOMC is expected to lower the benchmark Fed Funds rate -.25 basis points to 2.0-2.25%.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's press conference, China Manufacturing PMI report, Eurozone CPI/GDP reports, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Democratic Presidential Debate and the (MYL) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.
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