Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 2,954.22 -11.49%

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

 
Indices

• DJIA 25,409.36 -12.4%

• NASDAQ 8,567.37 -10.54%

• Russell 2000 1,476.33 -12.04%

• S&P 500 High Beta 40.62 -13.09%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 135.75 -13.8%

• Wilshire 5000 30,204.72 -11.6%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,683.54 -10.9%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,185.92 -12.3%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 595.21 -10.4%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,152.23 -.34%
  

• NYSE Technology 2,145.23 -10.6%

• Transports 9,388.19 -13.94%

• Utilities 839.96 -11.47%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 67.8 -13.8%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 40.77 -2.46%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,248.92 -2.19%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 936.50 -.15%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 390,402 -3.08%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -1,471 -1,864

• Bloomberg Crude Oil Net % Bulls 23.3 -3.2%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 411,464 +3.78%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,138,168 -3.4%

• Total Put/Call 1.27 +16.51%

• OEX Put/Call 1.11 +8.06%

• ISE Sentiment 85.0 +5

• NYSE Arms .63 -43.24%

• Volatility(VIX) 40.1 +134.8%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.08 +24.4%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.19 +31.20%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.14 +17.8%

• Smart Money Flow Index 13,292.88 -11.3%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $3.634 Trillion +.02%

• ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$3.256 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 30.4 -25.0%

• AAII % Bears 39.1 +36.5%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 159.45  -8.7%

• Crude Oil 44.76 -16.3%

• Reformulated Gasoline 148.28 -15.63%

• Natural Gas 1.68 -11.65%

• Heating Oil 148.75 -12.3%

• Gold 1,566.70 -4.81%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 161.08 -1.35%

• Copper 254.0 -2.38%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 272.0 USD/Metric Tonne unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 82.0 USD/Metric Tonne -6.9%

• Lumber 410.90 -10.65%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 863.33 -3.3%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.59% +2.0 basis points

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +2.6% -120.0 basis points
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 25.0% unch.

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.2406 +4.83%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 533.78 +262.65%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 178.11 -.03%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 56.2 +5.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index .4 +6.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 15.4 -5.5 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0% chance of no change, 91.5% chance of 50.0 basis point rate cut on 3/18

• US Dollar Index 97.96 -.92%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,625.09 -.42%

• Bitcoin/USD 8,621.73 -11.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 123.25 -1.64%

• Yield Curve 24.0 +12.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.13% -33.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.120 Trillion -.33%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 14.06 -6.33%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 152.92 +.72%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 174.25 +40.0 basis points

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 51.21 +44.10%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 131.98 +42.0%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 47.42 +3.85%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 34.53 +39.8%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 64.60 +3.52%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 171.21 +.24%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.43% -18.0 basis point

• TED Spread 19.5 +6.25 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 5.75 +4.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.75 -8.5 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 66.58 +43.59%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 610.0 -3.78%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 73.98 +51.73%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 245.86 +26.6%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 180.0 unch.
  

• M1 Money Supply $3.998 Trillion -.71%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,128.70 +.50%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 209,750 +750

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.45% -4.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 655.0 +1.47%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 63.5 -2.1 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +5.30% unch.

• Nationwide Gas $2.46/gallon -.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 529.0 +6.44%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 905.40 -1.59%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 30.0 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 249,821 -.74%

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth -10.8%

Worst Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Value -12.9%

Leading Sectors

• Video Gaming -8.2%

• Shipping -8.2%

• Education -8.2%

• Biotech -8.9%

• Software -9.1%

Lagging Sectors

• Banks -15.3% 

• Gaming -15.8%

• Gold & Silver -16.2%

• Oil Service -17.0%

• Airlines -22.2%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (8)

• NVAX, LRN, ZYXI, BGS, REZI, ALLO, NGM and REGN

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (61)

• GOF, CNO, COST, IBKC, JNJ, CR, MGM, TREX, FHN, RGLD, NDAQ, SGMS, WEN, DGX, LH, DAL, FND, BMCH, FTI, MCK, EQM, MCK, SC, LMT, OGE, PTY, ONB, ALK, HII, JPM, LADR, PNM, SPR, ACHC, AAL, SEIC, MTZ, CBOE, PLNT, LHCG, IRT, WTRG, MYL, CVNA, LILAK, CROX, DELL, HTGC, DNP, CHDN, VMW, SWCH, SAGE, W, CDXS, EB, GKOS and BIG

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Sharply Lower into Final Hour on Coronavirus Fears, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Decline, Metals & Mining/Transport Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 48.2 +23.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 123.20 -1.5%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.10 +8.7%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 61.4 +25.0%

• ISE Sentiment Index 89.0 +3
  

• Total Put/Call 1.33 -.75%

• NYSE Arms .73 -.56%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 68.30 +8.2%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 607.0 n/a

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 75.38 +11.89%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 174.25 +24.75 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.25 +23.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 246.03 +8.30%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 171.21 +.06%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 5.75 +1.25 basis points

• TED Spread 29.25 +16.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.25 -5.25 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 63.30 -.58%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.27% -24.0 basis points

• Yield Curve .24 +9.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 82.0 USD/Metric Tonne -3.45%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 56.20 +6.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index .4 +4.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 15.4 -2.0 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.46 -8.0 basis points
• 51.5% chance of 75.0 basis point Fed rate cut at April 29th meeting, 46.2% chance of 75.0 basis point cut at June 10th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -522 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -143 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -11 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +147.1% Above 100-Day Average
• 1 Sector Rising, 10 Sectors Declining
• 12.8% of Issues Advancing, 86.2% Declining
• 3 New 52-Week Highs, 891 New Lows
• 28.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 30.2%
• Vix 46.1 +17.7%
• Total Put/Call 1.31 -2.24%
• TRIN/Arms .85 -48.8%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -3.0% to -2.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 61.75 +5.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 46.5 +5.5 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  63.68 +.02%.

• FTSE 100 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.22%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.23%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (AES)/.33

• (CYOU)/.58

• (FL)/1.58

• (SOHU)/-.40

• (SUP)/-.29

• (W)/-2.62

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• Advance Goods Trade Balance for Jan. is estimated at -$68.5B versus -$68.3B in Dec.

• Wholesale Inventories MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.2% decline in Dec. 

• Retail Inventories MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.2% versus unch. in Dec.

• Personal Income for Jan. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.2% gain in Dec.

• Personal Spending for Jan. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in Dec.

• The PCE Core MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in Dec.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German Unemployment Rate report could also impact trading today.

Market Hours

Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +107.4% Above 100-Day Average
• 0 Sectors Rising, 11 Sectors Declining
• 7.5% of Issues Advancing, 91.6% Declining
• 9 New 52-Week Highs, 626 New Lows
• 41.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 34.9%
• Vix 33.4 +21.4%
• Total Put/Call 1.35 +12.5%
• TRIN/Arms 1.36 -25.4%