Sunday, June 28, 2020

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:   
Wall Street Journal:
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (NVDA), (MMP), (BBY) and (VZ).
CNBC:   
Zero Hedge:   
MarketWatch.com:
John Hopkins University:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 87.75 1.25 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 52.0 +1.75 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.14 -.01%.
  • FTSE 100 futures n/a.
  • S&P 500 futures -.17%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.33%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close:
  • (MLHR)/-.20
  • (MU)/.68
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • Pending Home Sales MoM for May is estimated to rise +18.9% versus a -21.8% decline in April.
10:30 am EST
  • The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for June is estimated to rise to -24.9 versus -49.2 in May.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The German Inflation data report and the (JACK) Meet and Greet could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on global recession fears, coronavirus second wave worries, oil weakness, rising Biden presidency odds, European/Emerging Market/US High-Yield Debt Angst and technical selling. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving bearish signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Friday, June 26, 2020

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 3,009.68 -2.7%
























The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
 
Indices
  • DJIA 25,013.34 -3.42%
  • NASDAQ 9,772.39 -1.68%
  • Russell 2000 1,378.26 -2.65%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 38.16 -7.05%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 137.42 -3.45%
  • Wilshire 5000 30,598.64 -2.9%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,884.03 -1.46%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,077.30 -4.25%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 585.45 -3.37%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,228.05 +1.73%
  • NYSE Technology 2,541.75 -1.12%
  • Transports 8,768.19 -3.34%
  • Utilities 746.44 -3.09%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 50.62 -2.22%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 39.86 -.18%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,192.89 +.25%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 903.24 +.13%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 405,364 -.4%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 133 -72
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -45.99 +.5%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 546,272 -3.8%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,076,990 -2.33%
  • Total Put/Call 1.02 +7.6%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.60 -44.3%
  • ISE Sentiment 86.0 -7.0 points
  • NYSE Arms 1.04 +92.6%
  • Volatility(VIX) 35.7 +10.7%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 71.23 +.89%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.61 -2.93%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.72 +1.32%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 15,338.94 -2.91%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.683 Trillion -.03%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$5.939 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 24.1 -.9%
  • AAII % Bears 48.9 +2.3%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 134.41 -2.79%
  • Crude Oil 38.30 -2.8%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 114.40 -9.5%
  • Natural Gas 1.50 -11.3%
  • Heating Oil 112.90 -6.5%
  • Gold 1,782.50 +1.40%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 165.27 +.92%
  • Copper 265.90 +2.32%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 260.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.39%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 97.95 USD/Metric Tonne -.15%
  • Lumber 431.30 +2.73%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 780.27 -2.82%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast -39.5% +6.0 percentage points
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -12.6% +2.3 percentage points
  • Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 100.0% unch.
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index -7.69 +10.3%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 252.72 -50.6%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 142.97 -.02%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 162.10 +33.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -81.8 +105.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -18.3 -14.5 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 100.0% chance of no change, 0.0% chance of rate hike on 7/29
  • US Dollar Index 97.44 -.29%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,593.76 +.18%
  • Bitcoin/USD 9,146.23 -1.84%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.83 +.78%
  • Yield Curve 49.25 -1.5 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield .63% -6.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.043 Trillion -.18%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 17.25 +.61%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 358.62 -4.75%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 177.5 +.25 basis point
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 51.45 +2.35%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 267.8 +1.52%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 58.21 -1.66%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 28.22 +.41%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 101.63 +14.3%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 169.26 +.07%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.31% +2.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 17.0 +1.0 basis point
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.0 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.75 +2.25 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 81.21 +4.41%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 1,076.0 +2.47%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 84.61 +11.9%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 205.85 +4.69%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 111.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Markit CMBX BBB-6 68.25 -2.5%
  • M1 Money Supply $5.226 Trillion +1.84%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,028.10 +1.7%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 1,620,750 -9.0%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 13.4% -70.0 basis points
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.13% unch.
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 773.10 -8.71%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 41.4 +1.2 points
  • Weekly Retail Sales -8.0% +100.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.18/gallon +.06/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,738.0 +11.8%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 841.83 +.31%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 25.0 -23.1%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 61.12 +18.77%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 255,455 +1.83%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth -.9%
Worst Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Value -3.8%
Leading Sectors
  • Gold & Silver +5.0%
  • Video Gaming +1.5%
  • Social Media +1.4%
  • Software +.8%
  • Robotics -.5%
Lagging Sectors
  • Homebuilders -5.1% 
  • Oil Service -7.4%
  • Banks -7.7%
  • Gaming -10.4%
  • Airlines -10.6%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (10)
  • VXRT, SHLL, CLGX, SNX, BCLI, SONO, FSLY, BRP, OOMA and AMED
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (50)
  • TCDA, UFS, RGA, APG, BDC, ZS, SSYS, USCR, KBH, FOX, EXPE, CNC, JWN, GATX, EAT, ZGNX, SEAS, NHF, JPM, KKR, AAL, PRVB, NGVT, EDIT, SCHW, BIPC, VMD, URBN, TXRH, UAL, APOG, WCC, BHLB, WFC, NXTC, ERI, NXTC, FB, TWTR, CFG, CUK, DKNG, COF, SMCI, CAKE, EHTH, ALEC, CRNX, GWB, PLAY and ADVM
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change