Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding -3.3% 2) Road & Rail -1.4% 3) Gold & Silver -1.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• EFX, UFPI, CCS, DHI, MDC, SNDX, SON, KURA, PYPL, NYT, AN, CCI, GPC, NFIN, EW, LEN, KMB, PFSI, CMG,  NTGR, GWW, MHO, BAND, PHM, MTH, LGIH, FAF, EXPI, TRN, EGAN, UNP, UNFI, SEIC, NCNO, TPH, CTXS, TSCO, STC, LMND, SPAQ, IPOB, CINF and AMSC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) APA 2) CMG 3) UNP 4) PHM 5) IYR
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BIIB 2) GSX 3) PCG 4) SLGN 5) BLNK
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

 

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +4.5% 2) Gaming +4.2% 3) Banks +2.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ALGN, BEAM, MXL, AGIO, CMD, STL, SNA, LVS, SDC, DFS, GPS, REPL, SONO, T, BLCI, SNAP, GTLS, COLM, PE, IBTX, COF, LEGN and PXD
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SABR 2) PXD 3) CSX 4) SSYS 5) VST

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ALGN 2) SPLK 3) TMO 4) HBAN 5) DGX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -7.9% Below 100-Day Average
• 6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
• 58.2% of Issues Advancing, 38.2% Declining
• 25 New 52-Week Highs, 21 New Lows
• 53.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.0% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 209.0 +24.0 points
• Vix 28.8 +.5%
• Total Put/Call .87 -1.1%
• TRIN/Arms .69 -17.9%

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Italian PM Considers New Curbs After Regions Tighten Restrictions.  
• Covid Drags 2 Million More U.K. Adults Into Financial Troubles.
• Asia Stocks to Drift Amid Pre-Election Aid Doubts: Markets Wrap. U.S. equity futures retreated and the dollar edged higher following a report that Russia and Iran have attempted to interfere in next month’s presidential election. S&P 500 futures dropped after a volatile session Wednesday amid signs that a U.S. stimulus package is unlikely to become law before next month’s election. Australian shares also fell and Japanese equity futures dipped. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi continued talks with White House representatives even as the odds remained long for a deal that could pass in the Senate. The yield on 10-year Treasuries closed above 0.8% at the highest since June. The offshore yuan continued to strengthen. Elsewhere, the pound jumped after European Union chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said a deal is within reach. Copper traded near a two-year high on supply disruptions in Chile. Oil dropped to $40 a barrel in New York after an industry report pointed to a surprise increase in American crude stockpiles. S&P 500 futures fell 0.6% as of 7:45 a.m. in Tokyo. The gauge fell 0.2% on Wednesday. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 retreated 0.5%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index declined 1.5%. 
• Stimulus Talks, Asia’s Long Slog, Pricey India Haircuts: Eco Day.
• Cases Surpass 41 Million; Europe Outbreak Worsens: Virus Update.
• N.Y.’s New Virus Cases Exceed 2,000 for First Time Since May.
• Align Tech Soars Past $400 as Sales ‘Knocked It Out of the Park’.  
• Leon Black’s Epstein Links Threaten to Engulf Apollo Fundraising.  
• Paul Singer’s $41 Billion Hedge Fund Moving Headquarters to Florida.  
• Exxon CEO Plans Layoffs, Underscores Faith in Fossil Fuels.
• Apple Lobbies for Lower Taxes to Boost U.S. Chip Production.  
• Here’s Why Biden Couldn’t Ban Fracking, But Could Restrict It.

Wall Street Journal:

• Oxford Developed Covid Vaccine, Then Scholars Clashed Over Money.
• Trump, Biden, Hunter, Chaos.
• Big Labor’s Big Senate Plans.
• Four Ways the Pandemic Might Change Entertainment.
• Purdue Pharma to Plead Guilty as Part of $8.34 Billion Opioid Settlement.
• Coronavirus Stimulus Vote Could Come After Election Day.
• France Honors the Memory of Beheaded Teacher Samuel Paty.

Fox News:

• CNN's Stelter mocked after defending Russia coverage, dismissing Hunter Biden scandal.
  

CNBC.com:

• Senate Democrats block GOP’s $500 billion coronavirus aid bill as Pelosi-Mnuchin talks continue.
• Dodgers-Rays game one had the lowest TV ratings ever for a World Series game.
• Facebook Dating lands in Europe as singles look for romance under lockdown.
• CDC says the U.S. is now seeing a ‘distressing trend’ in coronavirus outbreak.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Tesla, Peloton, Align & more. 
  

MarketWatch.com:          

• Chipotle sales bounce back from pandemic decline, but the stock is falling.  
• Why stock-market investors are starting to focus on Biden’s narrowing lead against Trump.

Zero Hedge:

• JPMorgan's Kolanovic Has Another Warning For Those Expecting A Crushing Biden Victory.
• Human Rights Watchdog Says Governments Using Pandemic To Crack Down On Online Dissent.
• California City Begins Handing Out Free Cash To "Address Inequalities For Black People"
• Giuliani Responds To Borat Photo.
• Hollywood-Backed Quibi Headed For Shutdown After Squandering Nearly $2BN In 6 Months.
• Californians Could Be Forced To Work Remotely As Governments Everywhere Capitalize On COVID.
• Joe Biden Insists Son Never Profited Off Family Name; Except Hunter And Ex-President Of Poland Say He Did.
• Economy-Crushing COVID-19 Lockdowns Contributed To 100,000 US Deaths, New CDC Guidance Suggests.
• Secret Service Travel Logs Match Details In Alleged Hunter Biden Emails.
• Tesla Jumps After Beating On Sales And Earnings As Free Cash Flow Soars, Says Delivering 500K Cars This Year Will Be "More Difficult".
• Is A Trump 'Surprise' Victory In The Offing?
• "Piles Of Stolen Mail On The Side Of The Road": Ballot Thefts Reported In Two Portland-Metro Suburbs.
• Stocks Chop On Stimulus Slop, Bitcoin Jumps, Dollar Dumps.

USA Today:

• Was 'Cuties' fallout to blame for Netflix's sharply slowing growth?

The Epoch Times: 

• House Proposes Bill to Name Chinese Regime as Top US National Security Threat.
• While Visiting Korean War Exhibit, Chinese Leader Xi Jinping Invokes Anti-US Sentiment.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.75 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 38.0 -.75 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.81 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 177.0 -7.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 29.65 +1.45%
• FTSE 100 futures -.6%.

• S&P 500 futures -.66%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.6%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (ALK)/-2.93
• (AB)/.68
• (AAL)-5.75
• (T)/.77
• (CCL)/-1.89
• (CTXS)/1.25
• (KO)/.46
• (DHR)/1.36
• (DOW)/.29
• (FITB)/.59
• (FCX)/.21
• (GPC)/1.42
• (GWW)/4.13
• (KMB)/1.73
• (NOC)/5.60
• (NUE)/.54
• (PHM)/1.14
• (DGX)/3.75
• (RS)/1.47
• (SIRI)/.05
• (SNA)/2.12
• (LUV)/-2.25
• (TSCO)/1.37
• (UNP)/2.06
• (VLO)/-1.29
  

After the Close:

• (SAM)/4.72
• (COF)/2.08
• (INTC)/1.11
• (MANH)/.39
• (MAT)/.38
• (RHI)/.59
• (STX)/.90
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 870K versus 898K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 9625K versus 10018K prior.

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for Sept. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +1.2% gain in Aug.
• Existing Home Sales for Sept. is estimated to rise to 6.3M versus 6.0M in Aug.
  

11:00 am EST

• Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity for Oct. is estimated at 11.0 versus 11.0 in Sept.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Third Presidential Debate, Senate Judiciary Committee vote on Amy Coney Barrett, Japan Inflation Data report, German GFK Consumer Confidence report, Bloomberg Economic Expectations Index for Oct., weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (GPS) virtual investor day could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by energy and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finished mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Stimulus Hopes, Earnings Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 29.1 -1.0%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 172.0 +89.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.5 -.56%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.0 +.46%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 53.1 +.11%

• ISE Sentiment Index 104.0 -5.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .90 +16.9%

• NYSE Arms .69 -10.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.25 -.91%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 805.25 -.02%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 72.09 -.61%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 137.0 +4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.68 -.53%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 201.99 -.96%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 179.84 +.19%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 -.25 basis point

• TED Spread 11.5 -1.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.5 -1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  81.75 +.25 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 68.25 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.88 +.45%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.

• Yield Curve 67.25 +5.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 117.5 USD/Metric Tonne +1.12%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 125.9 -2.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 7.90 -8.5 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 40.90 +.1 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.73 unch.
• 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -60 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -4 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +7 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.8%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding -4.6% 2) Alt Energy -4.1% 3) Road & Rail -1.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• UNP, RPRX, CCS, RDFN, CARA, PXD, COP, CXO, INSM, VLDR, NFIN, SLGN, LGND, NFLX, CWST, AGR, RUN, WGO and IRBT
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) FEZ 2) MRO 3) LQD 4) TXN 5) NFLX
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) GSX 2) WORK 3) CXO 4) ZM 5) ENDP
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume