BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher into the final hour on gains in my Technology longs and Retail longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, sector performance is mostly negative and volume is very light. Investor anxiety is very high. Today’s overall market action is mildly bearish. The VIX is rising +1.0% and is above average at 20.21. The ISE Sentiment Index is below average at 119.0 and the total put/call is slightly below average at .79. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running very high most of the day, hitting 3.07 at its intraday peak, and is currently 1.38. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling -4.94% to 61.91 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is rising +1.64% to 83.83 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is rising +5 basis points to 21 basis points. The TED spread is now down 444 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is falling -1.78% to 28.65 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is unch. at 8 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is unch. at 2.40%, which is down -25 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .04%, which is up -5 basis points today. Homebuilding, Semi, Computer and Steel stocks are outperforming today, rising .5%+.Gauges of investor angst are high again today given just mild market weakness, which is a positive.I suspect terrorism jitters are holding stocks back a bit ahead of tomorrow night’s festivities.(GS), which has been a drag on financials for a couple of months, is beginning to turn higher again.As well, the euro financial sector cds index hit a new 52-week low today, which is a large positive. On the negative side, small-caps are relatively weak and the market mostly ignored today’s positive economic report. Nikkei futures indicate an +114 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +2 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, less economic fear, technical buying, tech sector optimism, lower long-term rates and seasonal strength.
- Companies in the U.S. expanded in December at the fastest pace in almost four years, signaling the economic recovery is gaining speed heading into 2010. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said today its barometer rose to 60, exceeding the most optimistic estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and the highest level since January 2006. Economists projected the Chicago index would drop to 55.1 from 56.1 in November, based on the median estimate of 53 projections in the Bloomberg survey. The group’s gauge of orders climbed to the highest level in more than two years and its measure of employment showed growth for the first time since November 2007, the month before the recession began. Indexes of production and order backlogs also improved.
- The Obama administration is readying sanctions against discrete elements of the Iranian government, including those involved in the deadly crackdown on Iranian protesters, marking a shift to a more aggressive U.S. posture toward the Islamic republic, U.S. officials said. Ten months after President Obama set a year-end deadline for Iran to engage with world powers on its nuclear program, the government in Tehran has failed to respond in kind, other than an abortive gesture in the fall. Now, in what may be a difficult balancing act, officials say the administration wants to carefully target sanctions to avoid alienating the Iranian public -- while keeping the door ajar to a resolution of the struggle over Iran's nuclear program. The aim of any sanctions is to force the Tehran government to the negotiating table, rather than to punish it for either its apparent push to develop a nuclear weapon or its treatment of its people.
- The economy barely beats out government ethics and corruption as the issue of number one importance to most voters this month. Health care and taxes are a little more on voters’ minds, too. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 81% of voters consider the issue of the economy as very important, topping a list of 10 key electoral issues regularly tracked by Rasmussen Reports. But 79% say the same of government ethics and corruption. In third place this month is health care, rated very important by 75% of voters, up from 66% in November. It’s interesting to note, however, that just 40% of voters nationwide now favor the health care plan working its way through Congress, while 55% oppose it.
- The Chicago Purchasing Manager report for December is estimated to fall to 55.1 versus a reading of 56.1 in November.
10:30 am EST
- Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,850,000 barrels versus a -4,841,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are expected to rise by +1,000,000 barrels versus a -883,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -2,225,000 barrels versus a -3,027,000 barrel decline the prior week.Finally, Refinery Utilization is expected to rise by +.28% versus a +.09% gain the prior week.
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
- The weekly MBA mortgage applications report and the Treasury's 7-Year note auction could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly higher, boosted by technology and financial stocks in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.