Monday, April 11, 2005

Mid-day Scoreboard

Indices
S&P 500 1,180.90 -.03%
DJIA 10,453.73 -.07%
NASDAQ 1,993.68 -.29%
Russell 2000 608.25 -.41%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,629.12 -.06%
S&P Barra Growth 570.38 unch.
S&P Barra Value 606.27 -.02%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 583.96 -.02%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 739.36 -.46%
Morgan Stanley Technology 451.38 -.52%
Transports 3,599.19 +.07%
Utilities 366.05 +1.11%
Put/Call 1.07 +15.05%
NYSE Arms 1.16 -16.12%
Volatility(VIX) 11.99 -4.99%
ISE Sentiment 128.00 -21.47%
US Dollar 84.10 -.37%
CRB 302.53 -.59%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 52.65 -1.26%
Unleaded Gasoline 152.60 -.69%
Natural Gas 7.21 -.44%
Heating Oil 146.40 -2.22%
Gold 430.40 +.37%
Base Metals 130.61 +.71%
Copper 152.60 +1.23%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.44% -.54%

Leading Sectors
Tobacco +1.34%
Biotech +.71%
Oil Service +.43%

Lagging Sectors
I-Banks -.62%
Gold & Silver -.70%
Restaurants -.88%

BOTTOM LINE: US stocks are slightly lower mid-day on worries over slowing growth. The Portfolio is substantially higher on gains in my Chinese ADR shorts, Software longs and Base Metal shorts. I exited a few trading longs in the Tech sector this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio’s market exposure Market Neutral. The tone of the market is modestly negative as the advance/decline line is lower, sector performance is mixed and volume is very light. Small-caps, Cyclicals and Tech are underperforming, while measures of investor anxiety are mixed. Today’s overall market action is modestly negative, considering the decline in long-term interest rates, the market’s oversold state, light volume and stabilizing energy prices. The fact that most commodity prices are falling again, even with a decline in the US dollar, is a positive. Oil is likely to continue bouncing in the near-term as sentiment became too negative. However, new highs in crude are unlikely and I continue to expect a meaningful decline in energy prices over the intermediate-term. I expect US stocks to decline modestly into the close on continuing worries over slowing global growth and a bounce in energy prices.

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