Portfolio Manager's Commentary on Investing and Trading in the U.S. Financial Markets
Monday, December 24, 2007
Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Diminishing Credit Market Angst and Economic Pessimism
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Computer longs, Semi longs, Software longs and Medical longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The overall tone of the market is positive today as the advance/decline line is higher, almost every sector is rising and volume is light. Investor anxiety is slightly below average. Today’s overall market action is bullish. The ten-year yield is rising another 4 basis points and copper is surging another 2% on less economic pessimism. The TED spread is plunging another 37 basis points today to 152 basis points, which is down 69 basis points in 9 days. It is also down 88 basis points from its August high, which is a big positive and a sign of diminishing credit market angst. Today’s gains are spread across all market-caps and styles. The (XLF) is 1.2% higher, which always seems to help the broad market these days. True "growth" stock leaders are especially strong again today, as has been the case for most of the year. Large(+14%) and mid-cap growth(+13%) stocks are this year's best performers. The economic fear mongering that continues unabated by the many permabears is losing its effectiveness. I still see further upside in the broad market from current levels into year-end. Apple Inc.(AAPL) is relatively strong today, rising 2.4%, on speculation over new 08 product releases and strong holiday sales. The stock remains my second largest long position and I still see substantial upside from current levels. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on diminishing credit market angst, less economic pessimism, seasonal strength, bargain-hunting and short-covering. I hope everyone has a merry Christmas or happy holiday! Thanks for reading.
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