Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Thursday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The US House of Representatives passed a five-year, $289 billion farm bill with enough votes to override a presidential veto, making it more likely to become law. The plan to boost food aid to the poor and keep US farm subsidies largely intact was approved 318-106 in the House. The bill’s biggest expense is food aid, which takes up about 74% of the spending plan. The president said the plan exceeds spending guidelines, distorts trade and subsidizes farmers as crop prices reach records. The bill extends a 54-cent-a-gallon tariff on imports of biofuels until 2012, including sugar-based ethanol from Brazil. The plan also reauthorizes the Commodity Futures Trading Commission by extending regulatory power over electronic trading on energy markets.
- Japanese machinery orders fell more than economists expected in March as a global slowdown and waning profits dissuaded companies from investing in factories and equipment.
- Anheuser-Busch Cos.(BUD) options prices jumped to a five-year high on renewed speculation the world’s second-largest brewer may be acquired.
- Agilent Technologies(A), the biggest maker of scientific-testing equipment, reported a 41% jump in second-quarter profit and forecast full-year earnings that topped estimates, sending the shares 4.8% higher in after-hours trading.
- Sina Corp.(SINA) posted an 87% increase in profit after luring more users with music, videos and a new database of information for buying and selling real estate. The shares jumped 8.7% in extended trading.
- Paulson Should Act to Stop Dollar Slump, Americans Say in Poll.

- China’s banking regulator warned against a potential rebound of non-performing loans amid tighter credit controls and rising inflation.
- Petrobras(PBR) leased about 80% of the world’s deepest-drilling offshore rigs to explore prospects including the Western Hemisphere’s biggest discovery in decades.

Wall Street Journal:
- General Electric(GE) plans to seek a buyer for its appliances business through an auction.
- Signs of a Thaw in Deal Market? Slowly but surely, the grease that lubricates Wall Street’s deal machine is flowing again. A significant improvement in the credit markets since late March is emboldening more companies to undertake acquisitions and share buybacks that will be financed largely with debt.
- Relentless increases in the price of steel are halting or slowing major construction projects world-wide, setting the stage for a potential backlash against steelmakers.

MarketWatch.com:
- Third Point LLC disclosed stakes in Microsoft Corp.(MSFT) and Yahoo Inc.(YHOO) on Wednesday, adding another activist investment firm to the technology takeover standoff.
- Relocate-America.com ranks top 100 best places to live.

NY Times:
- Turner Entertainment to Offer Marketers Way to Link Ads to Content.
- Orange County, Calif., has become a center for small eye care device makers in much the same way that Silicon Valley is a center for technology.

Forbes.com:
- Ways to Bet Against the Oil Bubble.
- Annaly(NLY) Wards Off Competition.
- On Wednesday, Flour Corp.(FLR) said it had signed a $1.8 billion contract with Perth, Scotland-based Scottish and Southern Energy to design and build the world’s largest offshore wind farm project.
- Big Guns Tackle Next-Gen Ethanol. Ethanol producers have lost much of their luster lately, as critics blame the industry fro driving up the price of corn. Meanwhile, at least half a dozen start-up companies have been pursuing a new form of ethanol – called cellulosic ethanol – that uses a variety of non-food sources as its feedstock. As of today, those start-ups now find themselves in the company of a much larger competitor: DuPont(DD). The chemical giant announced Wednesday morning that it is partnering with Genecor to form a joint venture to produce cellulosic ethanol.
- Sugar fell to a four-month low on speculation the next harvest in Brazil, the biggest grower and exporter, will widen the global gap between supply and demand.

NY Observer:
- The 100 Most Powerful People in NY Real Estate.

CNNMoney.com:
- The 35 largest US private companies.

Portfolio.com:
- There is reason to worry about Yahoo’s brand coolness. ComScore numbers tell us that the whole of Yahoo(YHOO) -- main site, email, search and everything else -- is no longer the number one Web destination, as it has been for quite some time. Google(GOOG) has snatched that spot for the first time. One writer surveyed a group of high school kids, and found that Yahoo wasn't even as cool as Microsoft(MSFT), which is really saying something.

USA Today.com:
- Tech stocks jump to the front of market’s charge.
- Networks may struggle to meet upfront expectations.

ZDNet.de:
- Intel Corp.(INTC) said Apple Inc.’s(AAPL) next generation iPhone will incorporate Intel’s Atom, a new processor for low-cost portable computers, citing Intel’s German head Hannes Schwaderer. The new Atom processor-equipped iPhone will be slightly larger than the current version, which is due to the device’s larger display.

Reuters:
- Delta pilots OK modified contract, boost merger.

Financial Times:
- The soaring food prices that have triggered global political and economic turmoil over the past year have finally shown the first tentative signs of stabilizing. The UN’s Food and Agriculture price index saw its first decline in 15 months in April, as wheat, dairy, sugar and soybean prices fell. The last time the FAO food index posted a monthly drop was in January 2007. This time officials are more confident that some prices will stop rising or even fall as farmers plant more crops to take advantage of record prices amid better weather than last year.
- Thousands of Chinese troops and relief supplies were airlifted into areas stricken by Monday’s earthquake on Wednesday as it emerged that Beijing was stepping up control of domestic reporting of the country’s biggest natural disaster in 30 years. In spite of wall-to-wall coverage of the earthquake in Sichuan province, the ruling Communist party has been working hard to shape the news.
- Global banks have now written off more than 80% of their losses against assets linked to the US subprime mortgage market, according to a report by Fitch Ratings. The report is likely to fuel the sense of optimism that has spread through markets in recent weeks.

TimesOnline:
- Britain faces two years of economic pain and could sink into recession, the Governor of the Bank of England has said in a stark warning to the nation.

Economic Times:
- In what could be the biggest overseas retail buyout by an Indian firm, Sanjay Dalmia-led GHCL is learnt to be keen on buying US’ second-largest specialty home furnishings retailer, Linens ‘n Things.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Reiterated Buy on (TTEC), target $32.
- Reiterated Buy on (AMZN), target $97.
- Reiterated Sell on (CNSL), target $12.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +1.0% on average.
S&P 500 futures -.06%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.04%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories

Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (BBI)/.16
- (JCP)/.50
- (URBN)/.23
- (BX)/.11
- (KSS)/.44
- (JWN)/.49
- (ADSK)/.48
- (AAP)/.78
- (BMC)/.51

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

- Initial Jobless Claims for this week are estimated to rise to 370K versus 365K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 3035K versus 3020K prior.
- Empire Manufacturing for May is estimated at 0.0 versus a reading of .6 in April.

9:00 am EST
- Net Long-term TIC Flows for March are estimated to fall to $62.5 billion versus $7.5 billion in February.

9:15 am EST
- Industrial Production for April is estimated to fall .3% versus a .3% increase in March.
- Capacity Utilization for April is estimated to fall to 80.1% versus a reading of 80.5% in March.

10:00 am EST
- The Philly Fed for May is estimated to rise to -19.0 from -24.9 in April.

1:00 pm EST
- The NAHB Housing Market Index for May is estimated at 20.0 versus 20.0 in April.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Mishkin speaking, Fed’s Bernanke speaking, Fed’s Evans speaking, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (AFL) analyst meeting, (ACS) investor conference, Bank of America Health Care Conference, CSFB European Tech Conference, Robert W. Baird Growth Stock Conference, Canaccord On-Demand Software Conference, Merrill Lynch Global Infrastructure Conference and BMO Capital Agriculture Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

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