Portfolio Manager's Commentary on Investing and Trading in the U.S. Financial Markets
Monday, June 09, 2008
Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Rising Global Growth Concerns, Financial Sector Worries
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour on losses in my Medical longs, Internet longs, Computer longs and Software longs. I added to my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and added to my (EEM) short this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market is bearish as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, most sectors are declining and volume is below average. Investor anxiety is slightly below average. Today’s overall market action is bearish. The VIX is rising 2.4% and remains above average at 24.1. The ISE Sentiment Index is below average at 106.0 and the total put/call is about average at .91. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running about average most of the day and is currently .94. It appears to me, based on recent action in global markets, that worries over slowing global growth are intensifying rapidly as a result of the commodities bubble. A number of market-leading stocks are under pressure today. As well, the action in the (XLF) is a large broad market negative. The Bank Index(BKX) is making another new 52-week low today, falling 4.2%. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is rising another 1.7% today to 79.12 basis points. This is up from a low of 52.66 on May 5th, but still down from 129.46 basis points on March 20th. On the positive side, the US dollar trades well, oil was unable to build on Friday’s sharp advance despite unconstructive commentary from OPEC and the TED spread is falling 6.4% to .81 basis points today. One of my longs, (AAPL) is under pressure today on profit-taking after its WWDC announcements. The stock will likely remain under mild pressure near-term before making another strong advance. I doubt it will pay for longer-term investors to sell (AAPL) shares at current levels. Nikkei futures indicate an unch. open in Japan and DAX futures indicate a -15 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on rising global growth worries, financial sector concerns and more shorting.
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