Wednesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Oil Price at $90 Is Enough to Save Global Economy. Oil at a more sustainable $80 to $90 a barrel would suddenly make the economic weather feel a lot sunnier. With inflation under control, central banks could cut interest rates again. Property markets would stabilize, helping banks to begin lending and to reinvigorate the global economy. Cheaper oil wouldn't necessarily be beneficial to everyone. We can be sure that many investment banks and hedge funds have speculated wildly in the oil market, and that some of them will make horrendous losses. Expect some shocks to emerge on the way down, just as they did on the way up. Likewise, a soaring oil price was helping the environment. The world needs to wean itself off its addiction to fossil fuels, and the markets certainly delivered an incentive to do that. Arguably, much of that work has now been done. You don't need $300-a-barrel oil to get people to trade in their gas-guzzling sport-utility vehicles.
- India's 10-year government bonds will tumble this year, boosting yields to the highest since 2001, as the central bank raises interest rates to curb inflation, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. Yields may climb to 11 percent by the end of December as the central bank boosts rates from a seven-year high to slow the fastest inflation in 13 years, Vikas Agarwal, a strategist in Mumbai at the third-biggest U.S. bank, said. ``We haven't yet seen peaks in inflation, policy rates or bond yields in India,'' Agarwal said in an interview. ``Monetary-policy prospects remain decidedly hawkish.''
- The cost to protect Australian corporate bonds from default fell by the most in a week, credit- default swaps show. The Markit iTraxx Australia Series 9 Index declined 7.5 basis points to 131.5 basis points at 8:49 a.m. in Sydney, according to Citigroup Inc. prices.
- Hong Kong's apartment transactions may fall to a 10-month low in July, then drop further, on concerns that accelerating inflation and a slumping stock market may push prices down, analysts said.
- Wheat fell for a second straight day on speculation the biggest U.S. crop in a decade will overwhelm demand. Domestic growers may harvest 66.97 million metric tons (2.46 billion bushels), up 19 percent from last year and the most since 1998, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on July 11. The nation's reserves before next year's harvest will soar 76 percent to 14.6 million tons. U.S. exports probably will decline as global production climbs, the agency said.
- Crude oil was little changed below $122 a barrel after closing at its lowest in 12 weeks yesterday because of a strengthening U.S. dollar and signs that gasoline demand may extend declines. Oil has dropped 17 percent since its July record as the rising dollar curbed the appeal of commodities as an inflation hedge. U.S. motorists drove less for a seventh consecutive month in May, as vehicle-miles traveled on all U.S. roads fell 3.7 percent during the month from a year earlier, the Federal Highway Administration said in a report July 28. The seven-month slide is the longest downward streak since 1979. ``This demand thing has some bite,'' said James Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates in Galena, Illinois. ``I can really see a crude market here that could drop down to $100 by the end of summer or early fall.''
- The U.S. dollar may extend gains to C$1.0865 against the Canadian dollar should it close above so- called resistance at C$1.0340, said Kevin Edgeley, a technical analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in London.
- The Australian dollar fell to the lowest in three weeks as prices of commodities the nation exports declined and the U.S. currency rallied in New York.
- Winthrop Smith Jr., the former head of Merrill Lynch & Co.'s international brokerage unit, said he's buying the firm's shares again after Chief Executive Officer John Thain announced plans to shed risky assets and raise capital. Smith, who left the firm in 2001, sold all his shares before Thain took charge of the third-biggest U.S. securities firm last year, he said in a Bloomberg Television interview today.
- Traders who bought Merrill Lynch & Co. options yesterday betting the biggest U.S. brokerage would extend its worst slide in 21 years may have been tipped off, options analysts say. Merrill options rose to the highest in almost two weeks yesterday and traders increased bearish bets hours before the firm said that it would take $5.7 billion in writedowns.
- The International Monetary Fund urged the Bank of Japan to refrain from raising interest rates for now as the world's second-largest economy heads for a ``soft landing.''
- India's central bank put the battle against inflation before economic growth in Governor Yaga Venugopal Reddy's final interest-rate decision, spurring speculation of further increases in borrowing costs. The Reserve Bank of India yesterday raised its benchmark repurchase rate by half a percentage point to 9 percent, more than economists forecast. The rate will climb to between 9.25 percent and 9.5 percent in the next three months.
- Japan's industrial production fell last month after a global slowdown caused overseas shipments to decline for the first time in four years. Factory output dropped 2 percent from May, when it rose 2.8 percent, the Trade Ministry said today in Tokyo.
- An experimental Alzheimer's drug made by Wyeth(WYE) and Elan Corp.(ELN) only helped about half of patients in a study and was linked with a brain-swelling side effect. The company's shares fell 9.9 percent in after-market trading.
- Buffalo Wild Wings Inc.)BWLD), the restaurant chain specializing in multiflavored chicken wings, gained the most in 18 months in Nasdaq trading after saying it will meet its annual profit-growth forecast of 25 percent.
- MetLife Inc.(MET), the biggest U.S. life insurer, cut its full-year earnings forecast and said second- quarter profit declined 19 percent on investment losses, sending the shares down 9.1 percent.

Wall Street Journal:
- The Bush administration's embrace of a flexible timeline for pulling U.S. troops from Iraq has accelerated negotiations between Washington and Baghdad over a long-term security pact, officials from both sides said.

MarketWatch.com:
- Timers’ optimism may bode ill for gold. They don’t seem to be worried; that’s a bad sign to contrarians.
- Tight budgets or not, college students will spend more money on electronics in their back-to-school purchases this year than on apparel and apartment furnishings, underscoring the lofty place PCs, iPhones and other gadgets have taken on students' must-have lists.

NY Times:
- The number of chronically homeless people living in the nation’s streets and shelters has dropped by about 30 percent — from 175,914 to 123,833 — from 2005 to 2007. Researchers who study the issue say they believe the decline is the most significant in years.
- Amazon(AMZN) Offers Other Sites Use of Its Payment Service.
- An Investment Firm That Prospered From Past Crises Turns to Mortgages. John P. Grayken made a fortune buying investments no one else seemed to want during the savings and loan debacle in the early 1990s. Now he is trying to repeat that feat by buying the detritus of today’s mortgage crisis. On Monday night, Mr. Grayken’s private investment company, Lone Star Funds, agreed to pay $6.2 billion for most of the toxic, mortgage-linked investments held by Merrill Lynch.

BusinessWeek.com:
- Federal regulators on Tuesday extended through mid-August a temporary order banning a certain kind of short-selling of the stocks of mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and 17 large investment banks. The Securities and Exchange Commission said the ban on so-called "naked" short selling will be in effect until 11:59 p.m. EDT on Aug. 12 and will not be extended. "In addition to continuing the existing order against naked short selling, the commission will continue exploring other remedies for the broader marketplace to further protect investors from 'distort and short' artists," Cox said in a statement. After ban runs out, regulators will move to draw up formal rules to provide additional protections against abusive naked short selling in the broader market, while allowing legitimate short selling, the SEC said.

LA Times:
- The International Olympic Committee ruled today that Iraq could participate in the Beijing Games, reversing itself after Baghdad pledged to ensure the independence of its national Olympics panel.

USA Today.com:
- An increasing number of top economists say the U.S. economy is likely to narrowly avoid a recession this year, according to a new quarterly survey by USA TODAY.

Washington Post:
- Olympic organizers are backtracking on another promise about coverage of the Beijing Games, keeping in place blocks on Internet sites in the Main Press Center and venues where reporters will work. The blocked sites will make it difficult for journalists to retrieve information, particularly on political and human rights stories the government dislikes.

San Jose Mercury News:
- The American Wind Energy Association is expected to release a survey next month that says the United States has become the world's leading wind producer, and that the industry expects rapid growth to continue in places like Texas, the Great Plains and California. The survey calculates that the U.S. wind industry now tops Germany in terms of how much energy is being produced from wind.

Reuters:
- China has installed Internet-spying equipment in all the major hotel chains serving the 2008 Summer Olympics, a U.S. senator charged on Tuesday. "The Chinese government has put in place a system to spy on and gather information about every guest at hotels where Olympic visitors are staying," said Sen. Sam Brownback. The U.S. senator made a similar charge a few months ago but said that since then, hotels have come forward with detailed information on the monitoring systems that have been required by Beijing. Brownback refused to identify the hotels, but said "several international hotel chains have confirmed the existence of this order."

The Australian:
- US conglomerate GE(GE) says it could sign a deal within months to build a $US3 billion ($3.13 billion) "clean coal" power plant in NSW or Queensland that would store carbon dioxide underground.

Straits Times:
- Rents in Singapore have begun to fall at most apartment projects because of new supply, citing data from the government.

Hong Kong Economic Journal:
- Hong Kong investors bought 29% fewer residential units in China during the first half, the first year-on-year decline since 2003, citing a report by a real estate agency. Shenzhen in the southern province of Guangdong was the worst-performing city, with prices falling 35% in the nine months from June last year.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Maintained Buy on (TXN), target $36.
- Reiterated Buy on (HS), boosted estimates and raised target to $25.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are +1.0% to +2.0% on average.
S&P 500 futures -.03%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.11%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
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Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories
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Today in IBD
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Economic Preview/Calendar
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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (GLW)/.48
- (CMCSA)/.23
- (IT)/.22
- (IACI)/.31
- (STE)/.25
- (MCO)/.47
- (TIN)/-.05
- (TBL)/-.31
- (AMT)/.12
- (SO)/.56
- (SPW)/1.57
- (DIS)/.60
- (OII)/.90
- (HOLX)/.29
- (THQI)/-.38
- (SPF)/-1.49
- (ESRX)/.72
- (FSLR)/.56
- (OI)/1.22
- (CVD)/.78
- (ITRI)/.82
- (AVB)/1.24
- (GMR)/.56
- (PSYS)/.50
- (SBUX)/.18
- (CLF)/1.99
- (DRIV)/.33
- (V)/.49
- (FLS)/1.49
- (NBL)/2.05
- (ODP)/.00
- (SYMC)/.35
- (NLY)/.61
- (AKAM)/.41
- (AVP)/.45
- (AGN)/.63
- (SEE)/.40
- (CMI)/1.23
- (ENR)/1.27
- (IPG)/.16
- (JNY)/.13
- (MUR)/2.20
- (LVS)/.11
- (HES)/2.74
- (OC)/.21

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:15 am EST
- The ADP Employment Change for July is estimated at -60K versus -79K in June.

10:30 am EST
- Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory drawdown of -1,300,000 barrels versus a -1,558,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are expected to rise by 350,000 barrels versus a 2,847,000 barrel increase the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by 2,050,000 barrels versus a 2,419,000 barrel increase the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is expected unch. versus a -2.35% decline the prior week.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The weekly MBA mortgage applications report and the Keefe Bruyette Woods Community Bank Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and transportation shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.